Three close games between Minnesota and Dallas, and three times that the Mavericks — specifically Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving — were better in the clutch.
That’s why Dallas is up 3-0 in the Western Conference Finals and one game away from reaching the NBA Finals. It’s also why the Mavericks could win those Finals.
Here are three takeaways from Game 3.
Clutch play: Why Dallas can beat Boston
Plenty has been made about how, in these Western Conference Finals, Dallas has been clutch while the Timberwolves have not risen up to those moments like they did against the Nuggets last round. Luka Doncic is a proven clutch player who has hit the biggest shot in this series, and Kyrie Irving has a championship ring in part because he hit one of the most clutch shots in NBA Finals history. They have looked comfortable in the big moments.
LUKA 3-POINTER IN THE CLUTCH TO TAKE THE LEAD WITH 3 SECONDS LEFT IN THE 4Q 🤯🎯
— NBA (@NBA) May 25, 2024
DAL-MIN (1-0) | 4Q Live on TNT pic.twitter.com/6hNV77J8aV
That clutch play could be the difference against Boston in the NBA Finals. (While neither Boston nor Dallas have officially qualified for the Finals yet, we all see where this is headed, right?)
Dallas is 6-2 this postseason in clutch games (within five points in the final five minutes) with a +7.2 net rating. That jumps to a +25 net rating if you narrow it down to the final three minutes of playoff games within three points. Boston has a better clutch net rating of +37.5 in the playoffs and has had its big moments — think Jaylen Brown’s corner 3 in Game 1 against the Pacers — but that has come in just 14 minutes of clutch play, an incredibly small sample size. Boston has not been tested the same way.
This is not some fluke by Dallas — the Mavericks had a +20.5 net rating in the regular season and were 23-9 in clutch games.
Boston had the fourth-best clutch net rating in the league (+15.4), and they were 21-12 — let’s not pretend the Celtics fell apart in the clutch... although at times it felt like they did. If you watched those games, the Celtics’ offense could get bogged down and rely purely on your-turn/my-turn isolation in the clutch, they just got away with it because Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are that talented.
In a playoff matchup, I would trust Doncic and Irving over Tatum and Brown in the final minutes of a close game. Doncic doesn’t just make shots, he draws defenses and finds the open man, so P.J. Washington is knocking down corner 3s, or Daniel Gafford is throwing down dunks.
GAFFORD ONE HAND FOR THE LOB ‼️
— NBA (@NBA) May 27, 2024
DALLAS IS MAYHEM 🔊🔊
📺 TNT pic.twitter.com/Aq2iush7FN
If Dallas and Boston end up in clutch Finals games — which seems likely — I trust the Mavericks to execute better. I trust Doncic to be the best player on the court.
If he is, if Doncic is the best player in the series, Dallas has a real chance to win it all.
When will Dereck Livlely return?
It appears Dereck Lively II somehow avoided a concussion from being kneed in the back of the head by Karl-Anthony Towns, which is incredibly lucky.
Dereck Lively takes a hit to the head and has left to the locker room
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) May 27, 2024
Wishing him well 🙏 pic.twitter.com/s7K4VGuY2B
Lively did not return to Game 3 following that play because of what the team called a neck sprain. It didn’t matter on Sunday because, in the clutch, Daniel Gafford stepped up with a huge block and an alley-top dunk to help Dallas get the win.
Lively’s status for Game 4 remains up in the air, but it would not be a surprise if he sat out. That’s a real blow for Dallas, which has thrived by keeping one of Lively or Gafford on the court at all times, using size to take away driving lanes. Lively has been better in this series, partly because of his passing skills. When the Timberwolves trap Doncic, one of his relief valves is the big who has rolled to the free throw line — Lively is much better with the ball in that spot, both as a passer and a drive and finisher. Not having Lively in Game 4 will be a setback. However, what really matters is having Lively back when the Finals start on June 6.
Anthony Edwards was more aggressive
Anthony Edwards said at shootaround before Game 3 that he was going to be more aggressive from the start — and he was true to his word. Edwards was attacking the paint and getting downhill, drawing some fouls and making plays. He was not settling, which was a very good sign.
Still, he wasn’t finishing and was 4-of-11 shooting in the first half.
What Edwards did mirrored the entire Timberwolves team. Minnesota played a more aggressive game across the board — they blitzed Doncic more, for example. The problem was he has seen that all season and was comfortable with it, he kept making plays. Kyrie Irving as well was not shaken by blitzes and just made the right pass when doubled.
In many ways, Sunday was the best game the Timberwolves played in this series—much like against Denver, the young Wolves seem more comfortable on the road. It just was not enough against Dallas when it mattered, and now Minnesota is in a 0-3 hole no NBA team has ever climbed out of.
