After what felt like forever, we are finally a day away from the 123rd US Open. If you’d like to read my article that features my top picks to win the 2023 US Open, please click HERE.
This week’s major will be played at Los Angeles Country Club, host of the 2017 Walker Cup. The winning USA team from that year features three golfers in the field: Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Maverick McNealy.
Los Angeles Country Club is a beast of a course. It’s a 7,421-yard par-70 course that will demand excellence everywhere. The fairways are firm, and much like the past few weeks, the rough is penal. With some areas of the rough nearly as thick as Oak Hill, driving accuracy is at a premium. The approach shots here are just as important. The greens are small and surrounded by rough and contouring bunkers. Golfers who are great tee-to-green should have a massive advantage here.
2023 US Open Derivative Bets
Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 (+120)
This might be my favorite bet of the tournament. I’m not one to bet on Tyrrell Hatton too often, but the way he’s playing golf, I have no other choice but to bet him in both the outright market and the derivative market. He’s finished inside the top in five straight events. He’s been playing the most challenging courses and playing out of his mind. In those five events, he’s gained +6.8 strokes tee-to-green, +2.4 strokes off-the-tee, +2.6 strokes on approach, and another +3.9 putting per event. While playing this well, it’s hard to pass up on Hatton’s price.
Justin Rose Top 40 (-125)
I never envisioned that the golf community would collectively be betting on Justin Rose week in and week out in the 2023 season. However, betting on him has been warranted. Rose already has a win on the season with a victory at Pebble Beach. He’s been spectacular this season. He has always been a great putter, even when his ball striking is down. This season his ball striking has been solid. His approach play has been excellent. He’s gained at least +4.6 strokes on approach in his last three events. The last time Rose failed to finish inside the top 40 was back in March at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Xander Schauffele Top 20 (-135) – 2 units
The more I dig into the numbers for this week, the more I considered betting on Xander Schauffele to win the tournament. The problem with betting him outright at a major is that he always finishes inside the top 20 but never really was in contention. How does the old saying go? Always the bridesmaid, but never the bride. That describes Schauffele at majors to a tee. That is by no means a knock on his game. It’s that reason why I am comfortable betting two units on him to finish inside the top 20.
Much like Patrick Cantlay, Schauffele has very few holes in his game. Hence the reason he always finishes at or near the top. Breaking down his strokes gained stats by his last five, 10, 20, and 144 tournaments, I noticed he doesn’t lose strokes anywhere. He might lose strokes for one event, but that balances out over time. He’s finished inside the top 20 in his last six events and in his last five majors.
Rickie Fowler over Cameron Young (-115)
To start the season, it would be hard to convince anyone to bet on Rickie Fowler over Cameron Young. Then Young started this season and has progressively gotten worse. The stuff he is bringing to the table could be better. Most importantly, the aspects of his game where he is struggling are the most important aspects of the game. His around-the-green play and his putting is terrible. I’m not just saying that because he’s cost me money week after week. He’s lost strokes putting in four of his last five tournaments and has not finished better than 51st in that span.
Fowler has improved a lot over the course of the season. His swing looks smooth yet powerful. Over the last 36 rounds, he’s ninth in Strokes Gained: Total. Unlike Young, he’s been great around the greens and has been dynamite with the flat stick. Outside of his missed cut at the PGA Championship, he’s been a golfer who consistently is battling inside the top 10 and is playing meaningful golf on the weekends.
Sure, Young can turn it all around, but at a difficult course, I’d like to take my chances fading the guy struggling.