We’ve got multiple games to bet on once again which should make for an excellent Sunday. Let’s run through where the value lies in each.
San Diego Padres (+120) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-140) Total: 6.5
Generally speaking, it’s a good idea to bet on Zack Wheeler. When you get to bet on him at this price, it’s even sweeter.
Dating back to last season and including the playoffs, you’d be up 2.19 units if you bet on the Phillies every time they were -140 or better with Wheeler on the hill. Their record in those games is 18-15, and they’ve gone 5-3 in their last eight.
Wheeler has absolutely been on one in the postseason with a 1.40 ERA and a dominating Game 1 performance which saw him spin seven scoreless with eight strikeouts, allowing just a hit and a walk against the Padres. I trust him much more than Yu Darvish, who owns a 4.33 postseason ERA and who lost to Wheeler in Game 1.
The Padres’ bats did start to wake up a little in Game 4, but the truth of the matter is that the Phillies are far and away the best offense going right now in the postseason with a .743 OPS. You take the better lineup and the pitcher who’s hotter, I don’t care what the series score is at.
Edge: Phillies -140
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Houston Astros (+100) vs. New York Yankees (-120) Total: 6.5
This is another spot where it’s imperative to look at the game in a vacuum as opposed to where the series is at. It may not feel like the Astros can sweep a bitter rival like this, but the numbers would seem to be in their favor.
Lance McCullers owns a 2.97 ERA against the Yankees this season, and that’s reason enough to like Houston here. New York is absolutely lost at the plate right now with not even Aaron Judge there to carry this team. The Yankees now own a .565 OPS and just a .161 average in October and will be tossing out a lefty against the second-best team in baseball against lefties judging by wRC+.
Houston should have all of its high-leverage arms available here and should close this one out. While Nestor Cortes has been excellent all year, it’s unlikely he makes it past five innings. That will thrust the Yankees’ bullpen into action, which should really tip the scales.
McCullers, meanwhile, didn’t allow a run in his only postseason start and now owns a 2.56 ERA in October. I think getting him at this kind of price is a no-brainer.
Edge: Astros +100