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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics (-4.5): O/U 215.5
This is a do or die game and the only side worth backing is Boston in some facet.
I like the first quarter for the C’s. Without a quick start, Boston will be inching closer to being down 0-2 going back to Milwaukee without Khris Middleton in sight. That is not an option for Boston.
Besides, the Celtics held a 24-17 1Q lead with 2:25 left in the quarter before the Bucks closed on a 10-0 run and never looked back. I don’t think that will happen twice in row for the Celtics in Boston.
The Celtics lead the 1Q in three out of four games versus the Nets in the first round. Boston averages 27.4 points per game in the first quarter during the postseason, while Milwaukee averages 30.2.
However, considering the competition of the Bulls versus Nets, it’s easy to see why the Bucks got off to a quicker start.
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Boston’s Game 1 loss snapped a four-game winning streak versus Milwaukee at home for the Celtics. The Celtics are 6-4 on the ML and ATS in the past 10 games at home versus the Bucks (60%).
However, in the postseason alone, Boston is 4-3 all-time at home versus Milwaukee and lost three straight at TD Garden.
I think Boston can win this game but would rather live bet for a ML play around -130 odds instead of the -4.5 full-game.
The Celtics should get out to a quick start and show the motivation needed to avoid a 0-2 hole headed to Milwaukee.
I played the Celtics 1Q -1.5 (-115) and would play this at -2 and no further. There is not much flexibility on 1Q spreads.
Pick: Boston Celtics 1Q -1.5 (1u)
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