Top Game to Bet: Rockets (-5) at Thunder: Rockets
I am excited about this game, not because of the two teams playing but because of Christian Wood. The Rockets big man has been stellar this season. In January, Wood averaged 23.3 points and 11.1 rebounds per game, going Over 33.5 points, rebounds and assists in seven out of 11 games.
Over his last five outings, Wood averages 24.6 points and 11.8 rebounds. Wood scored 20 or more points in 10-of-11 games and 10 or more rebounds in six. Oklahoma City currently allows the 10th-most points (22.02) and rebounds (15.50) per game to opposing centers. To Power Forwards, those numbers are worse. Oklahoma City permits the fifth-most points per game (22.95) and the fourth-most rebounds per game (11.84) to power forwards. [[ad:athena]]
OKC also allows the second-most rebounds per game (48.6) over the last five games, the fifth-most points (118.8), and the fourth-most points in the paint (50.3) during that stretch. Wood should eat in this matchup versus Isaiah Roby and Darius Bazley. I locked in the Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120) on BetMGM.
He only played 27 minutes in his previous game and when he plays fewer than 30 minutes this season, Wood averages 25.0 points and 9.0 rebounds in the follow-up game. Wood posted 27 points and 15 rebounds in one game and 23 points and three rebounds in another.
Suppose you do not have the 33.5 Points and Rebound line available, pivot to Over 22.5 Points for Wood. The Over 10.5 Rebounds or double-double would be my third choice or play on Wood.
Bet Locked In: Christian Wood Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (2u) playable at 34.5 or 35.0
Top Team to Fade: Minnesota Timberwolves
I am right back at it today. Cleveland had Sunday night’s game in control before losing the lead and, ultimately, the game in the fourth quarter. Minnesota won 109-104 despite trailing 61-55 at halftime. Most of the time, I like taking the first game’s loser in the back-to-back to win or cover the second. Cleveland is a team I trust to go out and get a win the second night and make up for last night’s blunder. I would throw the Cavs Moneyline in your parlays tonight, and by the end of the night, I probably will tweet a two-teamer out with Cleveland in it.
However, my attention goes back to the same player prop from last night. Andre Drummond had an insane 10 rebounds at halftime and finished with 22 boards versus Minnesota. Drummond added 25 points for the third-highest point total this season. His 22 rebounds are also the third-highest rebound total of the year.
Drummond has totaled 15, 16, 17 and 22 rebounds in his last four games overall. In Sunday’s meeting with the Wolves, the Cavs grabbed 55 rebounds overall to Minnesota’s 34. I wrote about how bad Minnesota has been rebounding, but they are now second-worst over the last four games with 49.5 allowed per game.
There is no reason to come off Drummond for a second straight day as he averages 15.3 rebounds per game in the second of a back-to-back. We will put our winnings from yesterday on him and continue riding the best glass-cleaner in the business.
Bet Locked In: Andre Drummond Over 14.5 Rebounds (1u)
Monday Betting Notes:
Lakers at Hawks: Under 218.5
The trends are screaming Under between these two teams and I have to agree. The Under is 5-1 in the Lakers’ last six games overall and 12-3 in the Hawks’ last 15. The Hawks have allowed 107.6 points per game in those 15 contests and the Lakers 102.2 in the last six.
The Lakers have won often but struggled ATS on the road this season. L.A. is 0-4 ATS in their last four games away from the Staples Center. The Hawks are an impressive 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. That could help a case for the Under here.
The Lakers are leading the league over the last five games, allowing 101.4 points per game. The Hawks rank 17th with 111.6 points per game surrendered but fifth with 116.6 points per game. Both teams have subpar interior defenses, allowing a majority of their points to come from there. The Hawks rank last in the league with 56.0 points per game allowed in the paint and the Lakers 28th at 50.8 over the last five games. On the season, they rank 25th and 26th overall.
Making up for those subpar defensive numbers, both teams have a stellar three-point defense. Ranked second and third-best in the league, both teams hold opponents below 35.0%, two-of-four teams to do so. Over the last five games, the Hawks rank first in the NBA with a 29.5% three-point opponent percentage. If the Hawks are playing their defensive brand of basketball and taking layups offensively rather than threes, this game is better off for the Under.
The Lakers are 11th at 35.4% three-point defense over the last five games, which would be the fifth-best on the season. Both teams rank top 10 in defensive rating over the last three games and limit their opponents to under 10 made three-pointers per game in that stretch. I am backing two of the league’s stingiest defenses to keep it Under 220.
They met twice last season and the total scores were 197 and 223. Before that, the series scores were 213, 227 and 230 points. I expect one or both teams to fall short of the 110-point mark today. I grabbed this at 220 this morning and it has moved down slowly to 219 and 218.5 on books. I would play this down to 218 and if you can buy the -120 or -130 for the 219.5 or 220.5, I would take that for a 1u wager.
Bet Locked In: Under 220 (1u) - play down to 218 for 1u
Knicks at Bulls: Knicks +4
The Bulls and Knicks both found themselves in a shootout in their previous game. Chicago lost on a Damian Lillard buzzer-beating three-pointer, while the L.A. Clippers handled New York on Sunday. Both teams off back-to-backs have not been great.
The Bulls are 0-3 SU on the second of a back-to-back, losing by one (Warriors), four (Kings) and 30 points (Bucks). New York is 2-2 SU beating Orlando by seven and Milwaukee by 20. The Knicks lost to the Hornets (21) and Kings (9) in the two losses.
Tom Thibodeau is 5-1 SU in his career versus the Bulls since being fired in 2015. The Knicks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings with the Bulls. Be careful in backing the Bulls at home as a favorite. Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.
If you are playing player props, Julius Randle and Zach LaVine should be your targets. The Bulls allow the seventh-most points per game to power forwards (22.82) and Randle averages 21.8 points in back-to-backs and scored 27 last night. Randle has scored 11, 21, 26 and 29 points in the second night of his four three back-to-backs. Randle also recorded 39 PRA in three-of-four back-to-backs. The Bulls allow the third-most points per game as a team (118.5) and 20th in the last five (114.4). Chicago is allowing 49.2 points per game in the paint (23rd) and Randle is scoring 8.6 per game there.
LaVine has scored 21, 33 and 33 points in his three games with no days off this season. In January, LaVine averaged 28.3 points and scored 25 in nine-of-13 games. LaVine scored 21, 25, 26 and 41 points versus the Knicks in his last four games. The Knicks allow the third-fewest points per game to shooting guards (20.12), which is holing me back from backing LaVine to go Over 25.5 or 26.5 Points. I lean Randle over LaVine in this contest but think he can get his tonight too.
Bet Locked In: Julius Randle Over 22.5 Points (1u)
Kings at Pelicans: Kings +4
The Kings were getting streaky as they won three straight before dropping a road game in Miami by one-point. The Pelicans won two straight before losing to red-hot Rockets. New Orleans has been far from the Pelicans of last year, and betting on them has been difficult.
The Kings are 4-0 ATS in the last previous games overall but struggle in New Orleans, going 2-6 ATS in the last eight trips. However, the Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. Neither team has much defense, and the total is set at an awfully high 232.5. I lean the Over as the last eight meetings have seen the Over cash seven times.
The Pelicans are allowing 121.4 points per game (26th) over the last five games and scoring 119.0 (2nd). On the season, the Kings are allowing the second-most points per game (119.7), but only 109.0 (10th) in the last five versus primarily defensive squads. Those teams were the Clippers, Knicks, Heat, Magic and Raptors. The Kings should find an easier time scoring on the Pelicans than those five.
Grizzlies at Spurs: Spurs -3.5
Ja Morant has now posted two straight double-doubles for the Grizzlies, and they have won four consecutive games with him in the lineup. The Spurs won three straight before losing by 17 to the Grizzlies at home. Memphis is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in San Antonio.
As I said in the Cleveland piece, I am a fan of taking the first game’s loser in the second game of the back-to-back, but I do not trust San Antonio in this spot. Memphis is a different team with Morant, and the Over could be worth a look before backing either side. The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings and without Jonas Valanciunas and with Morant, Memphis has scored 108 and 129 in those two games.
