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The NBA continues tonight with an eight-game slate, with the first match tipping off at 6:00 PM ET.
The NBA tracks how many times a player touches the ball and what event occurs after that touch. For instance, the theory is that just four things can happen (not including dribbling): a pass, shot, foul or turnover. Many daily fantasy experts use this data to determine a player’s points per touch when electing optimal lineups. This can also be extremely useful when selecting a player prop wager when determining their over-under on points.
The top ten players with the highest points per touch percentage (PPT%) are (Min of 10 games played, 20+ MPG):
With that said, let’s jump into my favorite NBA prop bets for Saturday’s slate. All odds are reflective at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Kevin Durant Over 26.5 Points (-125 BetMGM)
This scoring prop is 1.8 points lower than Durant’s season averaging (28.3). Even though the Brooklyn Nets are playing against the hottest team in the NBA, the Phoneix Suns, the Suns are playing their fourth consecutive away game in six days, so Durant should capitalize on their tired legs.
Additionally, Kevin Durant is an extremely efficient player. He is ranked twelfth in PPT%, scoring a basket on 41.8% of his touches. However, what makes Durant so impressive because he is averaging 67.1, making him the only player to record 60+ touches per game and have a PPT% over 40.
Kevin Durant just passed Allen Iverson for 25th on the all-time scoring list. 👏 pic.twitter.com/wyhUqPx3Si
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) November 25, 2021
Monty Williams positions his team to force opponents to attempt midrange shots, favoring Durant and his scoring prowess. The two-time Finals MVP takes 53.3% of his shot attempts from 11-22 feet. Meanwhile, 34.2% of the shots against Phoenix this season have come from the midrange, fifth-most in the NBA via cleaningtheglass.com.
Kevin Durant has reached this prop value in 11 of his 19 games this season.
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Best Bet #2 - Terry Rozier Over 17.5 Points (-104 FanDuel)
Terry Rozier is one of the hottest players in the NBA right now. In his last three games, he is averaging 24.6 points per game while shooting 58.2% from the field. Rozier will likely continue his hot shooting as the Charlotte Hornets prepare to face the worst team in the league, the Houston Rockets.
T-RO‼️ 💥 @T_Rozzay3 | #AllFly pic.twitter.com/YCufqPfIF6
— Charlotte Hornets (@hornets) November 27, 2021
Moreover, Charlotte and Houston have the highest total market in the NBA tonight at over/under 226. They play the two fastest paces in the NBA, meaning there should be a lot of transition plays, which is an area Rozier thrives in. Moreover, it is an area the Rockets struggle in.
The 27-year-old is recording an averaging of 3.2 fast break points a game, ranking him 13th amongst NBA players who have played ten or more games. Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets are allowing 17.8 fast break points per outing which is the worst in the league.
Terry Rozier has reached this prop value in seven of his 16 games this season. However, he has scored 18 or more points in six of his last ten outings.
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