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Cardinals at Rams (-3.5): O/U 49.5
Kyler Murray will make his first postseason start of his career, while Matthew Stafford searches for his first career playoff victory in his fourth start (0-3).
Stafford’s three games, of course, came with the Detroit Lions so I cannot put too much stock into that record. On the other hand, Arizona is arguably the coldest team entering the playoffs.
Arizona lost four of its past five games, including a loss to the Rams. Arizona beat Dallas during that stretch but lost to Seattle, Indianapolis, Detroit and Los Angeles, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
In Murray’s career against the Rams or since the start of 2019, Arizona is 1-5 on the ML (16.7%) and 1-4-1 ATS (20%) as seen in the graph below.
The Cardinals were underdogs in five straight against the Rams before flipping to -3 favorites following the 37-20 win earlier this year, but lost by seven in the second/previous meeting.
The Rams finished the season 6-1 in the last seven games, losing in OT to the 49ers in Week 18. While Los Angeles is not a Super Bowl contender in my opinion, they are the better team of the two.
In major injury news, Arizona could be without guard Justin Pugh, running back James Conner and wide receiver/flex Rondale Moore. Those three will be a significant hit the offense, especially Pugh against this Rams front seven, mainly Aaron Donald. All three Cardinals are game-time decisions.
Arizona went 3-3 ATS and on the ML versus teams with winning records this season, five of those teams made the playoffs. When the Cardinals were underdogs versus a squad with a winning record, well that is when they went undefeated at 3-0 ATS and on the ML.
The Rams played seven games against teams with a winning record, six of them in the playoffs, going 3-4 on the ML and interestingly enough, 0-5 ATS as the favorite. While that is bad news since they are the favorite here, there have been plenty of trends broken in the Wild Card Weekend round thus far and I expect this to be one of them.
While the Cardinals look tempting to bet on, I believe the Rams are the better team and I will not break my most important rule of Wild Card Weekend. I fade quarterbacks in their first playoff start and Murray will be making that.
We faded Jalen Hurts, Mac Jones and backed the veteran Derek Carr making his first playoff start over Joe Burrow in his first postseason start. We went 2-1, almost 3-0 if the Raiders (+5.5) didn’t get a weird whistle and throw an interception on the goal line.
Nonetheless, let’s make it 3-1 and fade the first-timer in Murray and the Cardinals.
Pick: Rams -3.5 (1u)
Matthew Stafford O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs. Cardinals
While I am backing the Rams to win and cover, I like the chances that Stafford throws an interception for the fifth-straight game.
Stafford has eight interceptions in his last four games alone, including three games with two or more. The Rams signal-caller is projected to toss 1.6 interceptions tonight, per NBC’s player prop model.
On the season, Stafford has tossed 17 interceptions, which tied with Jaguars’ No. 1 overall pick and rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence for most in the NFL.
In two meetings with Arizona this season, Stafford threw for five touchdowns and one interception. However, following Satfford’s three touchdown and no pick performance versus the Cardinals, his slide started.
While the Rams finished the season winners in five of the past six and three of the final four games, Stafford started to decline.
The 33-year-old has eight touchdowns and eight interceptions in the last four games or six touchdowns and seven interceptions in the past three -- not good however you look at it.
Since Robert Woods went down with injury, Stafford has thrown 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions over the past eight games compared to 29 touchdown passes and six interceptions in the first nine games -- a significant difference.
Arizona has 13 interceptions on the season (T-15th), the 13th-most sacks (41) and own the sixth-fewest third-down attempts on them (207), so I expect Stafford to be under duress and make an errand throw or two.
J.J. Watt will also attempt a comeback, which would be encouraging for Arizona to force Stafford into a turnover or two.
I got the Over 0.5 interceptions at -122 odds and would play it out to -140 range.
Pick: Over 0.5 Interceptions (1u)
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