Rely on the known or test out the unknown. No. 10 Notre Dame (2-0) may face that choice today at North Carolina State (1-0), the Irish facing their first genuinely competitive test of the season. They know they can trust their rushing attack, that was known before the season even began. And it may be enough to beat the Wolfpack. But if it falters at all, will Notre Dame trust veteran quarterback Sam Hartman to find the unknowns among his receivers to spark the offense? Even against a defense that has stymied Hartman into half a dozen mistakes the last two years?
TV: ABC will have this national broadcast, which suggests the WatchESPN app will be the friend of anyone needing to stream the first road game of the Irish season. Sean McDonough will handle the play-by-play call with former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy providing commentary and Molly McGrath reporting from the sidelines.
TIME: 12 ET, just like that comical game seven years ago in Raleigh, the one beset by a literal hurricane, the one that needs to be laughed at by now.
Friday at 4: Wanna laugh with your afternoon drink?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 8, 2023
type this into your url bar: twitter dot com from:@[insert the ND beat writer of your choosing] since:2016-10-07 until:2016-10-09https://t.co/cAgI9RXAjs
Worry not, the winds today will be minimal — as of late Friday night, weather.com projects early afternoon winds of 6-8 mph — and those would impact a football game far more than any rain. And even the rain is not expected to be severe, though there may be lightning, which would delay the game.
For the sake of Irish sanity more than for the ABC broadcast window, let’s hope the lightning stays far enough away from Carter-Finley Stadium. Although a broadcast delay would create quite a headache for television executives, with No. 23 Texas A&M at Miami the next game on ABC.
PREVIEW: North Carolina State, as a program, has become as good as its defense. And in the last two years, that was quite good. Skipping any advanced stats, the Wolfpack finished No. 22 and No. 16 in yards allowed per play the last two years, both numbers lower than five yards per play. In 2022, North Carolina State ranked No. 11 in the country by allowing 19.2 points per game, a tick better than standing at No. 14 in 2021 at 19.7 points allowed per game.
Digging a bit further, the Wolfpack is more stringent against the pass than the rush, though it excelled in both regards last season.
Now in his fifth season in the role, North Carolina State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson crafts a 3-3-5 defense that keeps an opposing quarterback off balance before the snap. See: Hartman’s stats against the defense the last three years.
Dropping this here b/c it'll certainly pop up on the ABC broadcast tomorrow.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 8, 2023
Sam Hartman w/ Wake Forest vs. NC State ...
'22 (at): 29-48 for 397 yards, 2 TDs and 3 ints.
'21 (vs): 20-47 for 290 yards, 3 TDs and 3 ints.
'20 (at): 23-36 for 236 yards, 1 TD.
Totals: 55.0%, 7.04 ypa.
“They’re an attacking, aggressive group,” Irish head coach Marcus Freeman said Thursday. “They play extremely hard, that’s something you don’t always see every week, a group that’s so downhill, attacking and aggressive.
“They pressure all different wants and sometimes they might not even be pressuring, but their (defensive) backs are playing so fast downhill that it might seem like a pressure, and then all of a sudden they’ll drop eight.”
As such, and again remembering the Wolfpack is slightly better against the pass than the run, Notre Dame may lean into its greatest offensive strength, its running backs and offensive line. As well as Hartman has played, there is no arguing that the rushing attack should be the backbone of the 2023 Irish offense when games matter most.
“It’s a talented room that has a lot of guys that can help us,” Freeman said. “I love what [running backs coach Deland McCullough] is doing in terms of having certain packages for certain guys and being able to use all the positive attributes that they have.”
That room will be one man light this week with Penn State transfer Devyn Ford sidelined by concussion protocols — look for sophomore Jadarian Price and freshman Jeremiyah Love on kickoff returns — but with junior Audric Estimé supported by three underclassmen, Notre Dame should still be able to wear down the North Carolina State front.
PREDICTION: And therein should be the defining Irish edge. If Notre Dame can force Gibson to abandon some of his disguised pressures in order to focus on stopping the run, then a veteran like Hartman should feast.
The Irish have no proactive intention of earning Hartman some distinct measure of redemption, 1-2 in his career against the Wolfpack and 0-2 in Raleigh, but he will relish a multi-score lead after throwing three interceptions against North Carolina State each of the last two seasons.
Notre Dame has not yet flexed in that way, a counter-intuitive suggestion given it has won its two games by a combined score of 98-6. But the Wolfpack did not inspire confidence last week beating UConn 24-14. North Carolina State was never in trouble by any means, yet the reunion of quarterback Brennan Armstrong (née of Virginia) and offensive coordinator Robert Anae (née of Virginia by way of Syracuse) did not jump to a strong start.
Against an Irish defense that knows quite well it has not given up a touchdown yet this season, there should be further doubt that reunion will ignite today. Notre Dame will presumably give up a Wolfpack trip to the end zone, but not many and certainly not enough. Not enough to win, not enough to cover the 7.5-point spread in favor of the Irish and not enough to push this game Over its Friday-night combined point total of 50.5.
Notre Dame 31, North Carolina State 13.
(Straight-up: 2-0, Against the spread: 2-0; Over/Under: 0-2)
SOME OTHER NUMBERS
6.45: Inches of rain in Raleigh on Oct. 8, 2016.
7: Scholarship receivers available for Notre Dame this week after sixth-year former walk-on Matt Salerno suffered a leg injury that will cost him “an extended period of time,” per Freeman.
17: The number of passing snaps Irish senior defensive end Jordan Botelho has enjoyed through two games, per Irish Sports Daily’s Jamie Uyeyama, both underscoring how unorthodox the Navy and Tennessee State offenses were and explaining how Botelho has yet to have a significant big play, despite displaying discipline in his assignments each week.
28: Notre Dame has won 28 straight regular-season games against ACC opponents, dating back to the November 2017 trip to Miami.
116: Career passing touchdowns from Hartman, No. 12 in NCAA history, tied with former USC quarterback Matt Barkley (2009-12) and one behind former Hawaii quarterback (and current Rainbows head coach) Timmy Chang.
13,412: Career passing yardage from Hartman, No. 16 in NCAA history, 65 yards behind former Troy quarterback Corey Robinson (2010-13).
Setup in Raleigh. pic.twitter.com/P0piqpZ8Zw
— Chris Bacsik (@NDFBEquipment) September 8, 2023
INSIDE THE IRISH
— Marcus Freeman, Irish players, Eddie George all appreciative of Notre Dame vs HBCU first
— FCS foes dominate Irish opponents’ weekends, aside from Wake Forest and Pittsburgh
— And In That Corner ... Notre Dame faces first road test against the North Carolina State Wolfpack
— Things To Learn: North Carolina State may finally test and reveal Notre Dame’s offense, quality of receivers
— Friday at 4: Seven years later, it’s time to laugh at Notre Dame’s last trip to North Carolina State
OUTSIDE READING
— Notre Dame vs NC State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Irish meet hungry Wolves
— Sam Hartman finds his ‘level’ with Notre Dame football
— Tall tales from Notre Dame’s towering offensive tackles
— The ACC has a big Notre Dame problem, and it’s not the 28-game football losing streak
— 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Four QBs go in the top 10, with USC’s Caleb Williams leading the way
— Ready or not, Duke is an ACC contender
— Notebook: Duke beats Clemson
— How COVID lockdowns shaped Vikings’ young players