As we get closer to the start of Major League Baseball’s 2020 regular season, I wanted to go over some basic daily fantasy strategies which are crucial for success on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. These strategies include, lineup construction & contest selection.
Lineup Construction
How do I make a Major League Baseball DFS lineup? Where do I start? These are questions that I hear on a regular basis. Let’s discuss some of the different strategies when constructing your lineup.
First and foremost, make sure when you’re selecting your position players to stack specific lineups. What is a stack? A stack is simply investing in 2-5 players on the same team and for that matter, players near each other in the batting order. For an example, let’s take a look at the projected Opening Day lineup for the Minnesota Twins which I’ve included below.
1. Max Kepler, RF
2. Jorge Polanco, SS
3. Nelson Cruz, DH
4. Josh Donaldson, 3B
5. Eddie Rosario, LF
6. Miguel Sano, 1B
7. Mitch Garver, C
8. Luis Arraez, 2B
9. Byron Buxton, CF
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An example of a Twins four-man stack could be investing in: Polanco, Cruz, Donaldson and Rosario. Notice how this stack includes the 2,3,4,5 batters. Why do we do this? While the optimal lineup will typically include eight separate players all hitting home runs, it’s not likely that you’ll consistently roster those gems. We use stacking to ensure maximum exposure to games that should be high scoring. By rostering players close to each other in the batting order, you’re more likely to grab runs, RBI and any other offensive statistics in bulk. It just makes sense.
Now, let’s say you want to run with the same four-man Twins stack but you don’t want to roster the number five batter in Rosario. Maybe a hard throwing left-handed pitcher is on the mound and considering Rosario only hit five home runs total against opposing lefties in 2019, it’s completely viable to still want to invest in a Minnesota Twins stack without Rosario. How will your stack differ? Good question. Think logically. If you’re fading the number five batter, you’re going to want to roster the number six or seven batter to compensate. In this example, that would be Sano or Garver. When making an MLB DFS lineup with a stacking strategy, always think game flow! How does this game play out?
A Daily Fantasy lineup is essentially a manifestation of how a game (or games) plays out. The most common stack is a front end three or four man stack but there are other ways to stack and still be contrarian. These contrarian stacks include the back end stack and the wrap around. The names are somewhat telling but to be clear, a back end stack will include the back end of the lineup (5,6,7,8,9 batters) and a wrap around includes the 7,8,9 batters along with the top of the order. Stacking is the only way to approach daily fantasy baseball. If you’re not stacking, you need to adjust. Selecting eight separate players from a variety of teams is NOT a viable strategy for the long term.
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Contest Selection
DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo all have a wide variety of contests. Why is it that everyone flocks towards the massive GPP or Guaranteed prize pool tournaments? I mean, I get it. Everyone wants to win the $100,000 1st place prize but realistically, unless you’re entering maximum lineups, winning a GPP is very difficult. With that said, the aforementioned, “variety” of DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo each have their own benefits to best suit your DFS play. Let’s go through them one by one:
GPP or Guaranteed Prize Pool
GPP tournaments are all for show. Yes, it’s fun to see a $1,000,000 prize but realistically it’s not a tournament that you’re going to take down without a significant investment. I tell people to stay away from single entering GPP contests because it is a waste of money. If you’re not maxing it out, don’t play the GPP contests...There are better contests out there that better fit your style of play. Find the contest that best suits your skills.
Single Entry
Single entry leagues are great. All participants can only enter one lineup. You’d be surprised how vast the difference is between the cash line in GPP tournaments and the cash line in single entries. The ability to enter multiple lineups is what produces these massive scores that make you think, “I can never hit 190”. The truth is, MME or multi mass entry tells me more about your bank roll than it does about your DFS skill.
Three Entry Max
This is potentially my favorite contest type. Not only does three entries allow you to cover multiple angles of a game or slate, but many of the contestants in these leagues don’t actually enter three entries. Why they do this is beyond me but it is worth taking advantage of. Before entering any three max contest, take a look at the entrants’ page under league details, you’ll notice most people are entering single bullets. You might not have the bank roll to max out a GPP but you should be able to swing three entries in a three entry max. I cannot overstate how important it is to be on an even playing field with the rest of your league. Three entry max tournaments allow people with limited bank rolls to play DFS on an even playing field. This is where real DFS skill shines. The professionals have no hedge or advantage on you as long as you invest in the maximum number of lineups (3).
Satellites/Qualifiers
What is a satellite? A satellite is an affordable way to earn your way into larger dollar tournaments. Usually the winner takes all. Coming in first place in a satellite results in winning a ticket to another, more expensive, tournament. These tickets are not cash refundable. **Satellites are guaranteed** What does this mean? It means that regardless of if the contest fills, it will run and the prize remains the same. So, if it’s five minutes prior to lock and you see a satellite only 40% filled, it’s time for you to jump in. We call this overlay. Monitoring over is a great way to gain an edge in daily fantasy. If 60% of a given league is absent, the probability of you winning goes way up! Also, multi entering satellites is a great way to lock down even better odds when dealing with overlay.
What is a qualifier? Qualifiers are tournaments that also pay out tickets but these tickets are to live events or large dollar qualifying tournaments. It’s very difficult to win a qualifier but if you do, the upside is huge. Qualifying tournaments have the highest prize pools with the fewest amount of entries. I have qualified for three live finals and have honestly only produced in one of the three. At these tournaments, you’re competing against the best in the world at a desirable location i.e., Miami or California. Qualifiers are great for your DFS resume but realistically they are money pits.
