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This article outlines the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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PITCHER
Top Play: Yu Darvish – Padres (vs DBacks)
Darvish has been in a slump of sorts since late-June. That coincides rather neatly with when the new grip aid rules went into play. He projects to lead the slate in innings pitched and strikeouts. Only Brandon Woodruff figures to have a better strikeout rate. As such, Darvish is the best value among the potential top plays. His recent performance certainly offers cause for nagging doubt. Fortunately, the DBacks offense is 15 percent below average.
Pivot: Austin Gomber – Rockies (vs Marlins)
Gomber has emerged as a solid performer this season by clamping down on longstanding walk issues. When working at Coors Field, he’s a pitch-to-contact ground ball guy. To date, he’s woven a 1.98 ERA in 36.1 innings at home. While we should take that with a grain mountain of salt, it goes to show that he’s not doomed by altitude. The Marlins run a well below average offense, and Gomber needn’t thrive to turn a profit.
Also Consider: Julio Urias, Luis Garcia, Brandon Woodruff, Charlie Morton, Josiah Gray
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CATCHER
Top Play: Will Smith – Dodgers (vs Jaime Barria)
Barria has a neutral average launch angle and a history of home run issues – including 1.84 HR/9 in 49 Triple-A innings this season. An assignment against a loaded Dodgers offense is almost doomed to failure. With Corey Seager and Trea Turner back in action, Smith might slip out of his usual high-value lineup role. Network effects should make up for batting sixth or seventh.
Pivot: Jacob Stallings – Pirates (at Vladimir Gutierrez)
Stallings is a decent-hitting catcher, but he lacks the pop to do much damage at his home venue. A visit to Great American Smallpark opens new vistas for Stallings. Gutierrez is homer prone and his typical launch angle mirrors that of the Pirates catcher. We’re not talking about serious home run potential, but he does have a tidy one-in-five shot at a dinger. He’ll probably bat fifth, giving him an easy path to run production.
Also Consider: Salvador Perez, Omar Narvaez, Mitch Garver, Elias Diaz, Jorge Alfaro
FIRST BASE
Top Play: Joey Votto – Reds (vs Mitch Keller)
I’m not one to overreact to a hot streak. If anything, I err on the side of caution. There’s usually more money to be made with doubt than by jumping on bandwagons. With Votto’s recent hot streak, I’m fully sold. He’s locked in and set to face a series of below average pitchers. His ability to control the zone will serve him well against Keller and a collection of misfits.
Pivot: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Blue Jays (vs Tanner Houck)
This is the second game of a doubleheader, hence why using Guerrero can be viewed as a pivot. With two innings lopped off the contest, he’ll have fewer opportunities than most to deal damage. Houck also happens to be a talented if inconsistent pitcher. It only takes one home run for Vladito to return value. He has a one-in-four shot at delivering at least that much. He has other routes to profit too.
Also Consider: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Jesus Aguilar, C.J. Cron, Colin Moran, Ryan Mountcastle
SECOND BASE
Top Play: Max Muncy – Dodgers (vs Barria)
The Dodgers will and should be a hot stack tonight. This may also be one of our last chances to use Muncy at second base now that Turner is active. The patient slugger is one of the top plays of the entire slate. I’d take him over Votto too. He has a one-in-three shot to homer in what lines up as a potential double-digit run performance for the better L.A. club.
Pivot: Whit Merrifield – Royals (vs Kwang Hyun Kim)
Merrifield’s price has fallen to a point where his frequent contact and multi-hit potential is desirable. Home runs are always unlikely but few players have his knack for finding holes in the defense. Although it hasn’t been his sharpest season on the surface (.270/.314/.391), his peripherals suggest an impending rebound in his batting average. This is a neutral value and a neutral matchup – one that I suspect will be unpopular.
Also Consider: Jazz Chisholm, Brandon Lowe, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, Jonathan India, Jake Cronenworth, Jonathan Schoop, Marcus Semien, Brendan Rodgers, Jace Peterson, Tommy Edman
THIRD BASE
Top Play: Manny Machado – Padres (vs Taylor Widener)
Frankly, Turner is probably the top play, but there are only so many ways to say the Dodgers have a juicy matchup. Machado and the Padres stack offers a quieter alternative against an opposing pitching staff that’s just as likely to collapse like a pile of Jenga blocks. Machado is on an extended hot streak, having recorded a .993 OPS since late-May. He pairs well against Widener’s repertoire.
Pivot: Carter Kieboom – Nationals (at Charlie Morton)
Kieboom made adjustments mid-season at Triple-A which aren’t reflected in his price tag. He’s not the .300/.396/.475 hitter he’s flashed in 48 plate appearances this season, but he does now project as a roughly league average bat with a near-minimum price tag. This is a difficult matchup, both on the surface and once the Braves bullpen is brought to bear. Kieboom is a healthy dollar-for-dollar value, but his primary function is to help you squeeze in more substantial pieces elsewhere.
Also Consider: Jose Ramirez, Mike Moustakas, Justin Turner, Ke’Bryan Hayes, BrIan Anderson, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Donaldson, Ryan McMahon, Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
Top Play: Trevor Story – Rockies (vs Luzardo)
Luzardo appears to be slightly broken at the moment. He’s become homer prone, even at sea level, and his command is at its worst since he turned pro. Story tops even the Dodgers shortstops by a reasonable margin. He has a one-in-three shot at a home run to go with the usual range of Coors-fueled outcomes.
Pivot: Corey Seager – Dodgers (vs Barria)
DFS platforms haven’t yet caught up to the Dodgers planned usage of Seager and Turner. As such, Seager is effectively hidden by the higher ceiling and better value Turner. Seager will probably bat cleanup or fifth and could easily walk away with slate-leading run production. It’s so much easier to dream on Turner – his power and speed are more readily accessible. Seager’s path to value lies in multiple hits.
Also Consider: Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Chris Taylor, Wander Franco, Willy Adames, Jake Cronenworth, Miguel Rojas
OUTFIELD
Top Plays: Nick Castellanos – Reds (vs Keller)
Bryan Reynolds – Pirates (at Gutierrez)
I left a relatively short list in the “also consider” section, but there’s really dozens of viable outfield plays tonight. That’s why I’ve focused my top targets on value. For example, Jesse Winker is slightly better than Castellanos, but he also costs 50 percent more. Castellanos offers so much more bang for the buck – he’s perhaps the best value in the slate among top plays. He may have the best chance for multi-hit and multi-homer output.
Reynolds is cut from the same cloth. He has a similar cost to Castellanos with just as much multi-hit potential. He’s a tad less likely to homer, but we’re still looking at somewhere between a one-in-four and one-in-three chance for a dinger.
Pivots: Gregory Polanco – Pirates (at Gutierrez)
Kyle Tucker – Astros (vs Michael Pineda)
Chas McCormick – Mariners (at Pineda)
Since the start of July, Polanco is showing some life at the plate. His .254/.366/.407 slash in 71 plate appearances is fine. However, it’s his 92.8-mph average and 112-mph maximum exit velocity that give cause for optimism. He’s lofting the ball too which isn’t ideal for PNC Park but could yield multiple home runs at GABP.
We almost escaped today’s column without mentioning the Astros. They too have a juicy matchup overshadowed by the sheer volume of potential meltdowns on the docket. Pineda is a typical mid-tier pitcher – the kind who could survive an outing against Houston but shouldn’t be counted upon to do so. The Twins bullpen is exploitable. Tucker is a consistently underpriced top play candidate. His DFS performance is on par with far pricier stars. McCormick only recently cracked the lineup on a regular basis. He’s an above average hitter with a near-minimum price tag. Strikeouts have been an issue. Fortunately, Pineda tends to induce contact.
Also Consider: Nelson Cruz, Austin Meadows, Jordan Luplow, Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Edward Olivares, Jo Adell, Tyler O’Neill
