Washington Nationals
2023 Record: 71-91 (.438)
Ffith Place, NL East
Team ERA: 5.02 (27th)
Team OPS: .709 (21st)
What Went Right:
Even finishing last in the NL East, there were a few bright spots in the nation’s capital. The return of last year’s mega trade of Juan Soto doesn’t seem as bad just one year later. CJ Abrams seems to have transitioned into a fantasy star over the summer and his 47 steals and passed Trea Turner for the most stolen bases in Washington franchise history. MacKenzie Gore’s season ended after the lefty developed blisters in the final month of the season but he also took a step forward and appears to be a future back-end starter for fantasy purposes. Lane Thomas transformed into a legitimate fantasy superstar going 268/.315/.468 with 28 homers and 20 steals and we can add another lost Cardinals great outfielder to the list that includes Randy Arozarena and Adolis García. Jeimer Candelario was an excellent one-year deal for the ball club and they traded him at the trade deadline for DJ Herz, which is exactly what you need to do as a rebuilding team. As a team, only the Guardians’ offense had fewer strikeouts but their 423 walks were the third lowest in the league. So while they made plenty of contact, it didn’t produce ideal outcomes. Kyle Finnegan hit a few speed bumps over the course of the season but a 3.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a 63/24 K/BB ratio to go along with 28 saves is nothing to sneeze at. Hunter Harvey recovered some of his DMV magic and appears to be a strong candidate to remain as a legit eighth-inning monster or could move into a closing role next season.
What Went Wrong
Jeimer Candelario was an example of a good one-year signing but we cannot say the same for Dominic Smith. The 28-year-old first baseman hit .254/.326/.366 with 12 homers and 46 RBI across 586 plate appearances. Nationals Park is a much better place to hit in than his former home in Citi Field but 12 homers across 153 games just isn’t going to cut it, especially at first base. Corey Dickerson was also a miss in the free agent game and he was cut loose by the team in early August after hitting .250/.283/.354 and two homers. Washington is in the midst of a rebuild but they still are looking for a permanent third baseman. After Candelario left in August, they trotted Carter Kieboom and Ildemaro Vargas out to the hot corner and both were way below league average at the plate. Patrick Corbin had his best season in three years but he still finished the season with a 5.20 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 124/57 K/BB ratio over 180 innings. His 2018 and 2019 seasons seem like a distant memory. Outside of Finnegan and Harvey, the Nationals bullpen was poor and was tied for eighth worst in allowing inherited runners to score with a 34 percent mark. To add even more salt to the wound, hitters hit .273/.346/.457 against Washington’s pitchers. To put that in perspective, Gleyber Torres hit .273/.347/.453. Yikes. With a poor team, the Nationals ranked 13th out of 15 NL teams in attendance with 1.8 million attendees, which is their lowest number of visitors since 2010, excluding the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Team ownership also has egg on their face with the retirement turned non-retirement turned PR nightmare of former team ace, Stephen Strasburg.
Fantasy Slants
**Lane Thomas might be one of the few handfuls of players considered a league winner. The 28-year-old outfielder was the 326th player selected in standard 12-team leagues this spring. Thomas has turned into a superb everyday player of the rebuilding Nationals. The outfielder cranked 28 homers across 682 plate appearances while hitting .266/.315/.466. Thomas’ success, much like 2021, was predicated on his dominance of left-handed pitching. He hit .326/.370/.566 with a 17 percent strikeout rate versus a .243/.294/.426 with a 29 percent strikeout rate against right-handers. It was also a tale of two halves for Thomas, who hit .302/.347/.497 in this first half and only .217/.272/.422 after the All-Star Break. For Thomas to repeat his $25 dollar value next season, he will have to replicate his production against southpaws, which seems like a tall order.
**Through July 6, CJ Abrams had just eleven stolen bases but after he was moved to the leadoff spot, he ran wild and finished the season with 47 swipes, which is a franchise record. He was just two homers shy of going 20/40, which would have been one of the best seasons for a 22-year-old or younger player. Abrams, a former first round pick of the Padres, continues to struggle with left-handed pitching, hitting just .166/.240/.272 with a 23 percent strikeout rate, which he will need to improve upon if he wishes to take the next step. Most of his production, outside of steals, came in July, when he hit .327/.391/.500, but he didn’t have above 100 wRC+ in any other month. Due to his speed, he is likely go high in drafts next season, but until he makes some changes at the plate, he appears to be a speed-only play.
**Keibert Ruiz has been an underwhelming major league player since he debut in 2021. The 25-year-old hit .260/.308/.409 with 18 homers and 62 RBI across 562 plate appearances. He, like many of the Nationals hitters, doesn’t strikeout often, Ruiz is in the 98th percentile in strikeout rate according to Statcast. However, just putting the bat on the ball isn’t the end all be all, just ask most of the Guardians hitters. Ruiz’s 31 percent hard hit rate paired with a six percent barrel percentage is among the worst in the league, and has hovered around those marks for his entire major league career. Unless we hear that he trains in an offseason lab, like Driveline or Tread, we shouldn’t expect a huge increase in his power output next season. His defense also took a step back this season. Opposing batters ran wild on the 25-year-old backstop. He allowed 114 stolen bases on 135 attempts, which lead all of MLB by far. If opposing teams continue to have success, he might find himself on the bench more often going forward.
**Joey Meneses was an amazing story last season in his first season in the big leagues. He made his debut in August and promptly swatted 13 balls out of the park. He began the season with the Nationals but didn’t hit with as much power as in 2022. The 31-year-old hit .275/.324/.404 with 13 homers and 87 RBI across 642 plate appearances while striking out just 20 percent of the time. However, taking a look at his home runs per barrel BBE, his 76 percent was way above the league average of 56 percent. This year, he hovered around 50 percent, so we shouldn’t expect to see as many homers as 2021. Meneses is limited defensively and the rebuilding Nationals could easily move in another direction next season.
**Josiah Gray, in only his second full season in the majors, took the ball 30 times this year and posted a career best 3.91 ERA but it also came with a 1.46 WHIP and less strikeouts and more walks than the previous season. Gray began implementing a cutter into his pitch mix and it appeared to limit one of his biggest problems last season, the home run ball. Nationals Park is considered a hitter’s park but the right-hander’s production between home and on the road is quite different. He had a 5.49 ERA at home while only a 2.97 ERA on the road. With his durability and Washington’s lack of options, he will likely toe the rubber another 30 times next season but, the 25-year-old still has work to do before he is a reliable starter in fantasy baseball.
**MacKenzie Gore like CJ Abrams also took a step forward this season, albeit a smaller one than Abrams’. The left-hander posted a 7-10 record, 4.42 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 151/57 K/BB ratio over 136 ⅓ innings. He increased his strikeout rate while decreasing his walk rate but his WHIP was above 1.40 for the season, which is borderline unrosterable in most fantasy leagues. While his breaking stuff took a step in the right direction, his fastball is far too hittable and he allowed 17 of his 27 homers from that pitch group. He had two stints on the injured list before being shut down on September 20th due to blisters. As a former top pitching prospect, he still carries a name value but he has a lot of work to do before he be a dependable starter in MLB.
**The Nationals were extremely lucky to receive the second pick in the MLB draft via the draft lottery as the top of the draft class was stocked to the brim with talent. Washington selected Dylan Crews, an outfielder from LSU. Crews quickly made it to Double-A after the draft but surprisingly struggled to a .208/.318/.278 with seven home runs and three stolen bases. His .069 ISO and .278 BABIP were easily career-lows for the talented outfielder and he should make his debut sometime during the 2024 season.
Key Free Agents:
C.J. Edwards
Team Needs:
A little bit of everything? Looking ahead to 2024, the Nationals have a youngish core of hitters with C.J. Abrams, Lane Thomas, and Keibert Ruiz but outside of those three players, they can surely use an upgrade. The team will likely continue to roll with Luis Garcia and Dominic Smith but they are unlikely on the next great Nationals ball club.
The rotation led the league in homers allowed with 244 long balls but unless they make a surprising signing, they will probably keep Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Patrick Corbin, Trevor Williams, and Jackson Rutledge in the rotation to begin the year. Sadly, the Nationals farm system is loaded with hitters instead of pitchers. Their top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli’s season ended before it began and won’t return from Tommy John surgery until the All-Star break at best. The Stephen Strasburg drama still lingers as well. The road to the next playoff game in the nation’s capital is going to be a long winding one.