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NBA ‘Official’ & DFS Values

Today’s column breaks down player values, both individually and by positions, in the NBA’s new “official” scoring system. FanDuel and Yahoo are among the major fantasy sites which have adopted the system, which makes it easy to quantify and analyze fantasy values – for instance, we’ll see below that small forwards are by far the weakest position, accounting for just 15.3% of total value this season.

Before going any further, here are the details of the NBA’s ‘official’ scoring system:

Points: 1

Rebounds: 1.2

Assists: 1.5

Steals: 3

Blocks: 3

Turnovers: -1

This scoring system intentionally strips much of the nuance out of fantasy sports. “We felt like it really needed to be simple and easy to understand,” said Scott Kaufman-Ross, the NBA’s associate VP of fantasy sports. “Pretty much every major provider has a different scoring system for basketball. We thought having a consistent scoring system would go a long way to help everybody start speaking the same fantasy language.”

Personally, I love fantasy sports for the sheer variety and nuance -- a 14-team roto league with standard 9-cat is vastly different than, say, a 10-team H2H with double-doubles and FTs made instead of FT%. That’s part of what makes it endlessly entertaining. That said, the new ‘official’ scoring definitely has its place, lowering the bar of entry for new players, while standardizing scoring across FanDuel, Yahoo Daily, and many other sites.

If you’re in a points league with different settings, consider the findings below to be a conversation starter -- how would the charts and graphs look different in your league, and why? If you want a clearer picture of player values in a specific system, head to the RW Season Pass for customized scoring, player rankings, team reports, and a whole lot more (including weekly live chats with both myself and Jared Johnson).

Now that the table’s set, let’s dig in. This first graph shows the percentage of total value contributed by each category this season, among the top-175 players:

CEKRgB6.png

I’ve done this analysis a few times in the past, and the numbers haven’t changed by a lot, but there is one meaningful difference -- this scoring system now awards three points for each defensive stat (steals and blocks), as opposed to two points in previous years. As a result, those categories have gained in importance with a corresponding dip in points (52.4% of total value in 2016, 53.3% in 2017), rebounds and assists. If you’re interested in the comparison, check out my DFS column from March 2017.

Despite that shift in values, points are still the dominant theme in the NBA’s official scoring system, accounting for half of all fantasy value. From a broad-based perspective, points are twice as impactful as rebounds and nearly 10 times as impactful as steals. Rebounds amount to nearly a quarter of all value, and assists are at 16.1%, so the three typical triple-double categories (points, boards, assists) provide the overwhelming majority of value -- this isn’t a format that’s kind to specialists, to put it lightly.

In a roto league, or a category-based H2H, you’d be thrilled if a player gets two steals and two blocks in a game. That’s useful here, too, but it adds up to just 12 ‘fantasy points’...the exact same amount as 10 rebounds. This emphasis on scoring and boards helps explain why so many PFs are in the top-175 players. Here’s the breakdown by position:

7VHQz6u.png

Shooting guards, power forwards and point guards are well represented in the top-175, but there’s a huge drop-off for small forwards and centers. The average center’s overall value is robust at 32.35 fantasy points per game, however, and we can flesh out the picture even more with this chart:

ECKci6I.png

Just a glance makes it clear that small forwards are underperforming. Not only are they relatively scarce, with only 27 appearing in the top-175...they also drop off dramatically. Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Paul George admirably lead the way, but the SF group is littered with inconsistent (to date) options like Dillon Brooks, Josh Richardson, Wilson Chandler and Jonathon Simmons. The eighth-most valuable SF this season has been Tobias Harris at 30.1 points. For comparison’s sake, consider the eighth-most valuable players at other positions -- Dennis Schroder (34.2), Khris Middleton (33.4), Draymond Green (33.7) and Rudy Gobert (35.6).

Editor’s Note: Looking for an edge in your fantasy leagues? The NBA Season Pass provides weekly projections, rankings, the popular Pickups of the Day column, exclusive columns and customizable stat options. It’s the extra tool that can take your fantasy basketball teams to the next level.

Mike Gallagher has bored into DFS lineups for years, and as mentioned in today’s podcast, SF tends to have a lot of ‘punt plays’. That’s the inevitable result of what we’ve seen above -- if you don’t lock down an expensive stud, the odds are good you’ll quickly find yourself betting on a guy like Trevor Ariza.

Other points to make related to the chart above...centers in the mid-range have been out-performing comparable players at other positions (e.g. the 14th-best center has been Dwight Howard at 33.4 fantasy points, who is well ahead of the 14th-best PG, SG, etc.). This is all contingent upon player’s prices, matchups, injuries, and many other factors, of course...but knowing where to look for value is half the battle.

Here’s one final meta-view look at values by position:

2017-18 season, through Nov. 14

7XAa47C.png

To nobody’s surprise, small forwards are dead last in total value. Centers aren’t far behind on a cumulative basis, owing to the small number represented in the top-175, but in a league like FanDuel (with only one center required), that means there are tons more options than you’ll get at SF. The sheer volume and qualify of the SG group this year was a big surprise to me...compare the chart above to the same exact chart from last March, when SGs were at the bottom of the heap.

(from March 2017)

twrEZLx.png

I’ll conclude with a simple list of the top players, per game, in the NBA’s official scoring system (through Nov. 14). If you have any questions or insights, feel free to email me or send a message on Twitter! Good luck this week.

Name

NBA ‘Official’, FanDuel/Yahoo DFS Points
DeMarcus Cousins58.09
Giannis Antetokounmpo57.22
Anthony Davis53.73
James Harden53.01
LeBron James52.95
Kevin Durant46.53
Russell Westbrook45.98
Kristaps Porzingis45.58
Stephen Curry44.09
Ben Simmons43.69
Damian Lillard43.32
John Wall43.21
Andre Drummond43.00
Joel Embiid41.66
Nikola Jokic41.60
Karl-Anthony Towns41.59
LaMarcus Aldridge40.27
Blake Griffin40.21
Hassan Whiteside40.10
Paul George39.80
Marc Gasol37.84
Bradley Beal36.80
Kyrie Irving36.62
Victor Oladipo36.61
Chris Paul36.60
Kemba Walker36.39
DeMar DeRozan36.20
Rudy Gobert35.56
Clint Capela35.51
Devin Booker35.18
Nikola Vucevic34.79
Aaron Gordon34.58
D’Angelo Russell34.52
Otto Porter34.36
Al Horford34.32
Dennis Schroder34.20
Kevin Love34.19
Myles Turner33.91
Bobby Portis33.83
Draymond Green33.71
Carmelo Anthony33.44
Dwight Howard33.41
C.J. McCollum33.40
Khris Middleton33.38
Lonzo Ball32.65
Goran Dragic32.52
Jimmy Butler32.47
Paul Millsap32.38
Evan Fournier32.29
Klay Thompson31.95
Jeff Teague31.61
Robert Covington31.52
Jrue Holiday31.19
Tyreke Evans30.83
Steven Adams30.81
T.J. Warren30.80
Eric Gordon30.75
Andrew Wiggins30.68
Reggie Jackson30.68
Enes Kanter30.24
Harrison Barnes30.20
Tobias Harris30.08
DeAndre Jordan30.02
Kent Bazemore29.91
Pau Gasol29.87
James Johnson29.75
Kyle Lowry29.36
Jusuf Nurkic29.32
Will Barton29.14
Jeremy Lamb28.81
Tim Hardaway Jr.28.73
Ricky Rubio28.69
Domantas Sabonis28.58
DeMarre Carroll28.47
Brook Lopez28.31
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson28.26
Lauri Markkanen28.20
Mike Conley28.16
Thaddeus Young27.77
Marcus Smart27.70
Dennis Smith Jr.27.39
Al-Farouq Aminu27.38
Robin Lopez27.12
Lou Williams27.03
Darren Collison26.89
Jaylen Brown26.71
Justin Holiday26.62
Patrick Beverley26.58
Malcolm Brogdon26.56
Avery Bradley26.03
Brandon Ingram26.01
Taurean Prince25.81
Dion Waiters25.75
Jayson Tatum25.62
Marcin Gortat25.57
Rudy Gay25.50
Kris Dunn25.29
Larry Nance25.19
Eric Bledsoe25.17
Kyle Kuzma25.11
Taj Gibson24.95
Elfrid Payton24.84
Donovan Mitchell24.82
Joe Ingles24.81
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope24.78
J.J. Redick24.73
Gary Harris24.62
Jerian Grant24.21
Danilo Gallinari24.08
Trevor Ariza24.03
Kyle Anderson23.95
Kelly Oubre23.91
Serge Ibaka23.81
Terry Rozier23.71
Julius Randle23.68
Zach Randolph23.48
De’Aaron Fox23.32
Austin Rivers23.28
Buddy Hield23.04
John Collins23.01
Jordan Clarkson22.84
Mike James22.80
Dewayne Dedmon22.68
Jonathon Simmons22.66
Courtney Lee22.40
Evan Turner22.39
Danny Green22.36
Willie Cauley-Stein22.35
Spencer Dinwiddie22.29
Derrick Favors22.16
Alex Len22.06
Josh Richardson21.86
Trevor Booker21.81
DeAndre’ Bembry21.70
John Henson21.64
Wesley Matthews21.64
E’Twaun Moore21.54
Caris LeVert21.46
J.J. Barea21.46
Jonas Valanciunas21.38
Ryan Anderson21.37
Dejounte Murray21.28
Dwyane Wade21.22
D.J. Augustin21.21
Marcus Morris21.06
Jeremy Lin21.00
Marco Belinelli20.99
T.J. McConnell20.96
Rodney Hood20.93
Cody Zeller20.93
Tyson Chandler20.70
Jamal Murray20.59
Denzel Valentine20.55
Kelly Olynyk20.46
Bojan Bogdanovic20.31
Jerami Grant20.13
Emmanuel Mudiay20.02
Kyle O’Quinn19.67
Dillon Brooks19.65
Tyler Johnson19.62
Marquese Chriss19.59
Ish Smith19.57
P.J. Tucker19.54
Yogi Ferrell19.39
Dirk Nowitzki19.28
Allen Crabbe19.27
Ed Davis19.25
Cory Joseph19.16
Frank Kaminsky19.14
Terrence Ross19.12
Luc Mbah a Moute19.05
Jerryd Bayless19.00
David Nwaba18.98
Dario Saric18.74
Wilson Chandler18.64