The WNBA regular season is almost two-thirds of the way over and while Napheesa Collier and Paige Bueckers have all locked up in MVP and Rookie of the Year, there are still a few awards up in the air.
Let’s take a look at the MVP, DPOY and Most Improved Player markets. Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
WNBA MVP Ladder:
1. Napheesa Collier (-900)
2. Alyssa Thomas (+700)
3. A’ja Wilson (+3000)
Napheesa Collier (-800) and the Lynx are coming off a win over the Liberty, which was enough to push her out from -700 to -800 despite Alyssa Thomas’ (+700) big night against the Fever (32 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists).
It would take an injury to take Collier out of the lead for MVP and there is no bet to be made on Thomas or Wilson as this is all but locked up. The Lynx have a chance to set the league record for wins, while Collier to lead the league in points per game, while being a defensive force.
WNBA DPOY Ladder:
1. Napheesa Collier (+200)
2. Gabby Williams (+275)
3. A’ja Wilson (+250)
While running away with MVP, Napheesa Collier (+200) is also starting to pull away as the DPOY. Collier now averages 2.1 steals and 1.9 blocks per game for a the second-veer mark in stocks per game (4.0).
A’ja Wilson (+250) continues to have some of the most impressive on-and-off the court splits to contribute to the Aces’ limited success, but it’s not going to be enough despite leading the league in stocks at 4.1 (2.4 blocks, 1,7 steals).
Gabby Williams (+275) enters as the second-best bet for me in this market because she continues to rack up steals at an impressive rate (league-best 2.5 steals per game).
Williams has at least two steals in 21 of 27 games (77.7%), but that’s going to be the main calling card outside of being a perimeter lockdown defender.
Collier has the team and personal success, plus it doesn’t hurt to have Alanna Smith (+500) as her front court running mate. The +200 on Collier could easily be -110 in a few games, so I am getting involved now.
Pick: Napheesa Collier to win DPOY (2 units)
WNBA MIP Ladder:
1. Allisha Gray (+400)
2. Veronica Burton (+400)
T3. Erica Wheeler (+400)
T3. Azura Stevens (+400)
There are nine players at +2000 odds or lower in this market, eight at +1500, and five at +700. In other words, this market is up in the air, but I do think there is a bet to be made.
I laid a 0.5 unit each on Aliyah Boston (off the board) and Kamila Cardoso (off the board) in the preseason, then 0.5 unit each on Kayla Thornton (out for season) and Brittney Sykes (now +1500) before the halfway mark, but all four are out of play.
The best bet now is likely Allisha Gray (+400). She’s been hot in this market moving from +1500 to +400 over the last two weeks.
Atlanta is tied for the fourth-best record in the WNBA and Gray is averaging career-highs across the board in her ninth season. At 30-years-old, Gray is posting career-highs in points (18.3), rebounds (5.6), assists (3.9), field goal attempts (13.1), three-point attempts (6.1), free-throw attempts (5.7), and minutes per game (35.6).
I laid one unit on Gray at +400 odds and will likely double back on her with 10 or fewer games remaining.
Pick: Allisha Gray to win MIP (1 unit)
This Week’s Added Bets (3 Picks)
2 units: Golden State Valkyries to miss the playoffs (-125)
Golden State has made a remarkable run in the first half of the season. The Valkyries currently sit at 12-13 with the ninth overall best record through and have 19 remaining.
However, the schedule down the stretch, Golden State plays Minnesota twice, Phoenix twice, Seattle, New York, Indiana, and Atlanta all as a part of the last 11 games. If you bet them now or later to miss the playoffs, you should be getting value because I don’t see them surviving that final stretch.
2 units: Napheesa Collier to win DPOY (+200)
1 unit: Allisha Gray to win MIP (+400)
The Collier and Gray breakdowns are listed above in the DPOY and MIP sections. Best of luck!
Vaughn Dalzell’s WNBA Futures Bets:
2 units: Golden State Valkyries to miss the playoffs (-125)
2 units: Stephanie White to win Coach of the Year (+115)
2 units: Minnesota Lynx to win Championship (+340)
2 units: A’ja Wilson to win MVP (+225)
2 units: Napheesa Collier to win DPOY (+200)
2 units: Napheesa Collier to win MVP (+150)
1 unit: Allisha Gray to win MIP (+400)
0.5 unit: Napheesa Collier to win MVP (+300)
0.5 unit: Jonquel Jones to win DPOY (+3000)
0.5 unit: Angel Reese to win DPOY (+2000)
0.5 unit: Aliyah Boston to win DPOY (+3500)
0.5 unit: Kamila Cardoso to win DPOY (+5500)
0.5 unit: Kayla Thornton to win MIP (+400)
0.5 unit: Brittney Sykes to win MIP (+250)
0.5 unit: Aliyah Boston to win MIP (+1500)
0.5 unit: Kamila Cardoso to win MIP (+3000)
0.5 unit: Seattle Storm to win the Championship (+2500)
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