Last week’s column analyzed matchups on a team-by-team basis, determining that the Nets and Suns have been the best overall matchup for fantasy purposes, while the Clippers and Jazz have been the worst. We also went into a category-specific level of detail to show, for instance, that the Heat have been the hardest team to make 3-pointers against, while the Mavericks have been the easiest.
We will build on that analysis this week, with a greater level of specificity. Instead of looking at what teams have yielded overall, we’ll be looking at what they’ve yielded to each position -- PG, SG, SF, PF and C. This can be a crucial factor when setting weekly lineups, tweaking lineups daily, or creating a winning DFS team. If you can’t decide which power forward to start on a busy Friday, for instance, it’s helpful to know how lenient each team is against PFs. The Clippers are a net negative in every single category, compared to other teams, whereas the Suns are a net positive in every category except turnovers.
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Those conclusions aren’t surprising based on last week’s data, but there’s more nuance here -- whereas the Wizards were a middle-of-the-pack matchup overall, they are a terrific matchup for PFs. They’ve given up the most points (27.5), 3-pointers (3.1) and steals (2.2) against that position, while allowing PFs to shoot 50.4% on heavily-weighted attempts -- only the Suns have been more lenient.
Note that the charts below use z-scores to enable cross-category comparisons. The values in each chart should be viewed in the context of that individual position, not compared to other positions. For instance, the Hornets have allowed a league-high number of 3-pointers to centers this season, resulting in a z-score of 2.92, but that’s not directly comparable to the Pelicans’ league-high z-score of 2.91 for 3-pointers allowed to PGs. In fact, the Pelicans are allowing a whopping 3.5 triples per game to PGs, while the Hornets have allowed 1.5 triples to Cs. It’s all relative to the position.
I will provide updates of these charts throughout the season! Every 3-4 weeks I will be re-doing the entire analysis and posting the results in the Season Pass. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s the time. In addition to updated team-vs.-position charts, there is a ton of content including customized scoring systems, weekly projections, positional ranks, pickup of the day columns, Deep Waivers columns, and much more.
It’s very interesting to see the Bucks and Knicks emerge as the stingiest teams against PGs, a result I would never have guessed prior to this analysis. Production is down almost across the boards vs. New York, while Milwaukee has held opposing PGs to a mere 18.9 points on 36.1% shooting. At the other end of the spectrum, the Nets, 76ers, Suns and Nuggets all rank among the best matchups for PGs. The Warriors and Wolves also make the cut, which is surprising, and I’ll be watching how those ranks change as the season progresses (again, I’ll be posted updates in the Season Pass). If you want assists from your point guard (and who doesn’t?) make a note of the Lakers’ leniency -- they have been by a wide margin the easiest team for PGs to rack up dimes against.
The Rockets are an interesting team against SGs. They’re giving up plenty of steals while allowing a league-high 48.8% shooting, but opposing SGs very rarely get to the FT line. At just 2.1 FT attempts per game, they are way behind a team like the Lakers (5.4) or Blazers (5.5), which is worth keeping in mind if you have a FT-dependent SG like Lou Williams on your roster. Speaking of Lou, he’s part of a Lakers backcourt that’s ceded the most overall value to SGs this season, giving up a lot of points and 3-pointers on high percentages, sending players to the line with frequency, and failing to force turnovers. In a bizarre twist, the Bucks (who have been brutal against PGs) emerge as a very favorable matchup against SGs.
Small forwards have been raining 3-pointers against the Mavs, who we saw last week have been the most lenient team for 3-pointers in the league. Given their pervasive injury problems and personnel, that trend is unlikely to be reversed soon. Dallas is far from the best matchup overall, however, a dishonor that falls to the 76ers (the second position in which they’ve been the best matchup, joining PG). The Nets, Lakers, Rockets, Pacers and Kings are also getting torched by SFs this season. On the flip side, the defense of Kawhi Leonard has the Spurs as an awful matchup for SFs. Their combined z-score of -7.87 is well below even the Clippers, Raptors, Warriors and Blazers. Unless you have an elite, must-start player, you might want to give your SF the night off when San Antonio is on the docket.
I would be interested to know how many 3-pointers the Grizzlies gave up to PFs last season, when Zach Randolph was starting opposite Marc Gasol. In any case, they’ve been tough to score against from the perimeter with JaMychal Green at PF this year, giving up a miserly 0.6 triples per game to PFs. The opposite is the Wizards, who are giving up 3.1 per game to PFs, by far the highest mark in the league. Washington is also ceding lots of points, boards, steals and free throw attempts, while allowing high FG%, and the only caveat is that they’re forcing the most turnovers of any team.
Dwight Howard deserves some credit for anchoring a Hawks’ defense that’s allowed the least amount of value to opposing centers this season. They’re tough in every single category, and the cumulative -9.36 score is the lowest for any team against any position (the Clippers are close at -9.17 against PFs). Unsurprisingly, the Bucks’ ugly center rotation has been the best matchup this year, a situation that doesn’t seem to have improved with John Henson starting in the middle (Greg Monroe isn’t the answer defensively, but his vanishing act is still confusing/frustrating to everyone but Jason Kidd). The Blazers are second on the list of most favorable matchups, which might change when Festus Ezeli returns, and other good targets include the Sixers, Hornets, Lakers, Suns and Bulls.
As you can see, there is a ton of data here and you could discuss 1,000 different things I haven’t mentioned in the paragraphs above. Take your time looking through the data, compare different matchups, and if you have any questions or insights, let me know! As usual, you can send me an email or find me on Twitter @Knaus_RW. Good luck this week.
