Spotting guys who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
That’s my goal with the Regression Files: Pinpointing players seemingly due for regression to the mean, for better or worse.
We’ll start with players who have run cold of late, and who might be due for something of a bounce back in Week 17 and beyond.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Running Back
Joe Mixon (CIN)
Mixon makes it into this space every once in a while because the guy runs as cold as any back in the league. His red zone fortune has been on the bad side of late: Mixon has turned 12 of 26 inside-the-ten rushes into touchdowns and just five of 16 inside-the-five runs into scores.
Only Raheem Mostert and Gus Edwards have more inside-the-five rushes than Mixon in 2023. The Bengals, meanwhile, have gone from one of the pass heaviest offenses to one averaging 1 percent over their expected drop back rate since Jake Browning took over at QB. The Bengals have a meager 29 percent drop back rate in the green zone with Browning under center. Look for Mixon’s touchdown variance to (eventually) stop being so ugly.
Josh Jacobs (LV)
I have no insight into whether Jacobs, struggling with a lingering quad injury, will suit up this week against the Colts. If he does, the analytics say Jacobs is due.
Alexander Mattison is the only running back further below his expected fantasy production than Jacobs this season. That has a lot to do with teams stacking the box against a Vegas passing offense that has not scared anyone this year (even in their Christmas Day win, Aidan O’Connell threw for 62 yards on nine completions in one of the worst QB performances in recent memory).
Jacobs has run particularly cold inside the ten. He managed five touchdowns on 23 green zone rushes before his Week 14 quad injury. That the Raiders have the ninth lowest pass rate over expected in the red zone suggests Jacobs — as long as game script doesn’t go sideways — will get his chances to score against the run-funnel Colts this week. Don’t hesitate to throw Jacobs back into your lineup if he’s active. The Regression Reaper cometh.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
It’s a little strange to write up Lockett as a positive regression guy after he caught eight of 11 targets for 81 yards in Week 16 against the Titans. But I see last week’s performance as the beginning of what could be bigly regression for Lockett to close the season.
Lockett was running cold headed into Week 16, which begs the question: Why was he not mentioned in this space? We’re looking into this very powerfully. Lockett over the past three weeks is ninth among all pass catchers with 292 air yards, leading DK Metcalf by about 60 over that stretch. Against Tennessee, Lockett saw 45 percent of the Seahawks’ air yards to just 22 percent for Metcalf.
Lockett had a notable usage shift in Week 16. After operating from the slot on just 8 percent of his routes in Week 15, he was in the slot for 37 percent of his routes against Tennessee (JSN, meanwhile, was in the slot for 48 percent of his routes against the Titans, down from his usual 70 percent rate). That’s a positive development for a guy (Lockett) who has roasted secondaries from the slot in recent years.
Lockett’s air yards conversion rate is way down compared to 2022. He regressed in that area last week and I think there’s a decent shot it continues in Week 17 against the Steelers. It doesn’t hurt Lockett’s cause that the Seahawks since Week 11 have the league’s second highest neutral pass rate (65 percent).
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Tight End
Tyler Conklin (NYJ)
Probably you’re not hard pressed to play Conklin in fantasy championship week unless you’re in a 14-team league and you’re crawling through the waiver wire desert, begging for one drop of a PPR scam. I get it. We’ve all been there.
Conklin, with the Jets running an astounding 91 offensive plays in Week 16 against the Commanders, was third on the team in targets (7). He caught four for 36 yards, and was nearly six fantasy points below his expected output.
Conklin’s low, low aDOT (4.1) with Trevor Siemian under center is good if you’re seeking a reliable PPR scam, also known as a bunch of empty receptions that come to nothing. I like Conklin as a deep play this week against the Browns, whose opponents run the most plays per game. You could do worse than Conklin.
Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Joe Flacco (CLE)
Flacco, like others who have played too well for math’s comfort, lands in the negative regression space after throwing ten touchdowns in four starts for Cleveland. I’m sorry Joe. That’s just too much touchdown scoring. It won’t stand.
Flacco’s 5.8 percent touchdown rate this season is considerably higher than his career rate (3.7 percent) and his 2022 rate (2.7 percent). All three of his inside-the-ten completions have gone for scores this season. Eventually, one day, that will regress.
Though Flacco has hardly been the model of efficiency as Browns starter — his 0.47 fantasy points per drop back is in line with guys like Desmond Ridder and Nick Mullens — massive, almost unseemly volume has kept him alive as a fantasy option.
Cleveland leads the leagues in offensive snaps per game; hence, Flacco has dropped back at least 42 times in all four of his starts. No team, in fact, has averaged more offensive plays per game since Flacco took over, and only three teams operate at a faster pace on offense. That could save Flacco for fantasy purposes in an ugly Week 17 matchup against the Jets. Some backsliding in touchdown tossing could be a rude awakening for Flacco streamers though.
Baker Mayfield (TB)
They call him Baker the Touchdown Maker because folks, he’s making touchdowns by the baker’s dozen. Something along those lines.
Mayfield over his past three games has thrown a TD on 8.7 percent of his attempts. That, as you may have guessed, is slightly better than his 5.1 percent season-long rate. Before his recent touchdown spate, Mayfield was averaging 0.44 fantasy points per drop back (which isn’t necessarily bad). That’s ballooned to 0.61 fantasy points per drop back in the Bucs’ past three outings — higher than every quarterback not named Josh Allen.
Mayfield remains a fine fantasy option for Week 17 against the Saints. Potential TD regression and the Saints being a massive run funnel defense (more on that later in the week) make me a tad reticent about Baker as a set-it-and-forget-it QB1 though. Tampa being top five in red zone pass rate over expected could make all this worrying look downright silly, however.
Running Back
Chris Rodriguez (WAS)
C-Rod, as the zoomers are calling him, goes back to the bench if Brian Robinson (hamstring) returns to the Commanders lineup this week against the Niners.
I’m obliged to mention that Rodriguez — seeing 10 of Washington’s 19 running back carries — saved his fantasy days with not one, but two touchdown rushes. He ran a route on just 10 of the team’s 36 drop backs against the Jets. Oh, and he plays a San Francisco defense that profiles as the league’s most extreme pass funnel. Don’t get cute with Rodriguez, even if Robinson remains sidelined.
Wide Receiver
George Pickens (PIT)
From the good section of this article in Week 16 to the bad one in Week 17, Pickens makes the jump because he got awfully darn efficient last weekend against the Bengals. Pickens turned a meager six targets into a cool 195 yards and two touchdowns.
Did Pickens lead the Steelers in targets and first-read targets? He did. Did he dominate air yards? You bet. Does that instill much confidence in me that Pickens will close out the season on a heater that will atone for the myriad statistical sins of his pre-Week 16 fantasy production? It does not.
The Steelers desperately do not want to be a pass-first team, whoever is under center. With Mason Rudolph at the helm in Week 16, they were 2 percent below their expected drop back rate. Pittsburgh’s 45 percent neutral pass rate was the second lowest of the week. That’s not exactly the formula for play and pass volume that can offset Pickens’ deeply undesirable fantasy profile (17.9 average depth of target last week, things of that nature).
Then there’s Mason Rudolph transforming into peak Ben Roethlisberger in Week 16. Rudolph’s adjusted yards per attempt against the Bengals was more than double his career AY/A. His completion percentage over expected (3.1) was far higher than his career CPOE of -1.7. Rudolph had one (1) good game against a vulnerable secondary.
If you think Pickens can keep banking the 50-yard scores, play him this week against the Seahawks. If not, think twice. Three times, even.
DJ Chark (CAR)
Chark last reminded fantasy managers that he is, in fact, still in the NFL when he went for 98 yards and two touchdowns on six catches against the hapless Packers defense.
The thing about Chark’s outburst is that it wasn’t just his raw numbers that took a big upward swing; his peripherals were stunningly different. Headed into Week 16, Chark was averaging just 53 air yards per game in the moribund Carolina offense. Against the Pack, he had 132 air yards, the sixth most in the league last week. Chark’s season-long air yards conversion rate of 44 percent jumped to 71 percent against Green Bay. That’s a regression red flag waving directly in your face.
A quick look at Chark’s Week 16 usage shows he ran routes from the slot at a 46 percent rate, by far his highest slot rate of 2023. His average depth of target (17.8) remained awfully high. We don’t love that.
Chark’s one saving grace in Week 17: He faces the Jaguars in yet another Revenge Game for the veteran receiver. Adjust your analytics.