One could go broke betting on what the annual NBA GM survey predicts to come true — last season it was the Milwaukee Bucks as champions and Luka Doncic as MVP.
It’s better viewed as a snapshot of the conventional wisdom around the NBA. That said, this season’s GM survey is an interesting insight into what is expected.
What’s expected is a very even Nuggets vs. Celtics NBA Finals. Here is how the voting for who would win the NBA title broke down:
T-1. Boston Celtics – 33%
T-1. Denver Nuggets – 33%
3. Milwaukee Bucks – 23%
4. Phoenix Suns – 7%
5. LA Clippers – 3%
One GM voted for the Clippers? I mean, even if they traded for Harden, do you want to make that bet? The other interesting takeaway is how steep the dropoff is after the Bucks in third; GMs don’t see anyone other than the top three winning it all.
Here was the voting for the MVP race:
1. Nikola Jokic – 43%
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 20%
3. Jayson Tatum – 13%
4. Luka Doncic – 10%
Also receiving votes: Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Embiid not making the top four is interesting considering he has been first or second for three years running, but the GMs also picked the 76ers to come in fourth in the West. Jokic also led the vote for “If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?” but interestingly Victor Wembanyama came in second.
One interesting vote was for Rookie of the Year. Of course Wembanyama won, but not by as much as you might think.
1. Victor Wembanyama – 50%
2. Scoot Henderson – 27%
3. Chet Holmgren – 20%
4. Sasha Vezenkov – 3%
Wembanyama got 90% of the votes when GMs were asked who would be the best player from this class in five years. However, there is a sense that the Spurs will slow play Wembanyama this season, which could hurt his MVP candidacy.
Here are some other highlights from the survey.
• GMs say Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best defensive player in the NBA, with Jrue Holiday second in the voting, then Draymond Green and Marcus Smart tied for third. Defending Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. was tied for fourth with Kawhi Leonard (although they did vote Jackson the best interior defender in the league).
• Miami’s Erik Spoelstra was voted best coach in the NBA and it wasn’t close, he got 73% of the vote. Second was the Clippers’ Tyronn Lue. The Rockets hiring Ime Udoka was seen as the best off-season coaching hire.
• LeBron James was voted the best leader in the league. However, LeBron came in second when GMs were asked the player with the highest basketball IQ, with Jokic getting the nod.
• GMs predict the Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards as the player most likely to have a breakout season, but interestingly the Pistons’ Cade Cunningham was a very close second. Cunningham, coming off missing most of last season due to a stress fracture in his left leg that required surgery, stood out at USA Basketball’s Las Vegas training camp before the World Cup.
• GM’s said Stephen Curry is the player who forces coaches to adjust the most, with Jokic second.
• GMs said Milwaukee landing Damian Lillard was the offseason move that will have the biggest impact, and also said Marcus Smart going to Memphis was the most underrated move of the offseason.
• The Rockets landing Cam Whitmore at No. 20 was the biggest steal in the draft, according to the GMs.
• The most athletic player in the NBA? Ja Morant, the GMs said.
• The Kings’ De’Aaron Fox was voted the fastest player with the ball in his hands.
