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Analyzing Dak Prescott’s case for NFL MVP

Dak Prescott is in the MVP conversation because of his strong play since Dallas’ 42-10 loss at San Francisco in week five. The next three weeks will tell whether he has an excellent chance or just a puncher’s chance at his first MVP. Five points to consider in MVPology:

Dallas has to win against big competition for Prescott to have a chance. Next four games: Philadelphia, at Buffalo, at Miami, Detroit. The Cowboys’ nine wins have come against teams with records of .500 or worse. Prescott’s got to slay a couple of dragons in December. Stats are important, of course. But recent MVP voting tells us that team records are of equal or more importance.

Each of the last 10 MVPs has come from a 1 or 2 playoff seed. Dallas, as of today, is the NFC’s 5 seed. Charting where the last 10 MVPs came from: 1 seeds—Peyton Manning, 2013; Cam Newton, 2015; Tom Brady, 2017; Patrick Mahomes, 2018; Lamar Jackson, 2019; Aaron Rodgers, 2020; Rodgers, 2021; Mahomes, 2022 2 seeds—Rodgers, 2014; Matt Ryan, 2016. Ten years, every year, with the best four teams producing the MVP. That’s a trend.

Looking for an exception to the recent rule? Try 2012. Adrian Peterson was coming off January 2012 knee reconstruction and had one of best years ever by a running back, with 2,097 yards. Peyton Manning’s first season in Denver was one of his best seasons ever. Denver was the AFC’s top seed. Minnesota was 6 in the NFC. The MVP vote was split: 30.5 votes for Peterson, 19.5 for Manning. Voters that year seemed smitten with Peterson’s comeback, even for a so-so team. Maybe Prescott could be so good individually that he overcomes Dallas being, say, the 5 seed. Problem there, as it stands now: Brock Purdy could have similarly great numbers and play for a higher seed. What would differentiate Prescott? Maybe

The Empathy Factor. Prescott is well-liked, and deservedly so. He has a tougher job by at least some small measure because of the star on his helmet; he has to be great as a quarterback and be great as a Dallas Cowboys quarterback. It’s all speculation now, and the next four games will tell. But I could see Prescott garnering votes if Dallas wins two or three of these big games coming up and he continues to play great, even if Dallas is the 5 seed.

Is Prescott the runaway MVP favorite?
Mike Florio and Peter King discuss Dak Prescott's stellar run of form over the past month and explain why the Dallas Cowboys quarterback has firmly planted himself at the epicenter of the NFL MVP debate.

There’s not anyone running away with the MVP with five weeks to play. I could see Mahomes, Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Prescott, Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa and maybe Tyreek Hill (if he chases the all-time receiving records) in the race this month, with C.J. Stroud still high on my list too. If you want to see more non-quarterbacks in contention, I get it. But it’s called the Most Valuable Player, not Most Outstanding Player. On the best teams, most often, the most valuable player is the quarterback.

There are 50 voters. Votes are cast the week after the regular season ends on Jan. 7. I have one of the 50 votes. Entering the last five weeks of the regular season, here’s my MVP ballot, in order: Purdy, Prescott, Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Hurts/Stroud (tie). Subject to change.

Read more in Peter King’s full Football Morning in America column.