The baseball Gods giveth on this fine Thursday with four afternoon MLB games. Since I’m still riding the sports rollercoaster and getting my barring on this MLB season, I will focus on the Athletics vs Twins game, which starts at 7:40 PM EST.
However, these baseball articles won’t just present single bets with vig. If there’s not a plus sign in front of the odds, it won’t be featured. I’m here to provide exciting plus odds plays. I’ll leave the singles grinder bets for the MLB experts.
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins (Thursday, 7:40 PM ET)
Parlay: Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Total Bases, Joe Ryan Over 7.5 Strikeouts, Twins Over 4.5 Runs (+525)
Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Total Bases
In a face-off against Luis Medina at the start of the game, I see Lewis having a good chance to get to Medina. In Medina’s last five starts, he’s given up 18 hits and nine extra-base hits. In two of those games, he allowed four extra-base hits each.
If you look at the BaseballSavant.com data, Lewis is batting like a madman. Low chase percentage, high expected slugging percentage, and high xwOBA. It also helps to have nine mph wind straight out of the park.
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Joe Ryan Over 7.5 Strikeouts
Before I explain why I like this, I want you to understand this number has been bumped up due to them playing the Athletics. If you only want to play strikeouts, I would take seven Ks and parlay it with the Twins’ moneyline.
The Athletics strike out a ton. Only the Mariners have struck out more times than the As this season. Per www.degenelytics.net, the As are first in the MLB in TrueK rate against right-handed pitchers.
Ryan’s got the goods to get eight or more Ks. We’ve seen him do so twice in his last three starts.
Twins Team Total Over 4.5 Runs
Generally, after a team puts up a football score against a team the day before, I like to fade them over, thinking they will chase more and try to recapture that feeling from the day before.
However, I like the Twins to continue their hot-hitting. They are averaging 4.5 runs per game and have hit over 4.5 in 30 games. If Carlos Correa and Lewis can go yard today, we might easily hit this.
