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Kings (-1.5) at Grizzlies: O/U 233.5
This spread opened Grizzlies -1 and quickly flipped to Kings -1.5 as Sacramento is riding a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS in that span).
On the season, the Kings are 11-4 ATS and 9-6 on the ML. On the road, Sacramento is 5-1 ATS and won all three games as a road favorite (2-1 ATS).
Memphis is 6-9-2 ATS this year and 6-1 on the ML at home. However, the only home loss came as a home underdog.
The Grizzlies are 0-5 on the ML and 1-4 ATS as a underdog this season and 0-1 as a home dog, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Grizzlies are shooting 40.4% from the field in the last five games (29th) compared to the Kings 55.2% (1st).
Sacramento has the NBA’s best offensive net rating in the past five games (128.8) and the Grizzlies are 23rd (108.8).
Defensively, Sacramento is 21st and Memphis is 12th in that span for net rating, but the Grizzlies defense might not be able to run with the Kings (4th vs 15th in pace over the last five).
Both defense ranks near the bottom in that span, but with the Kings on a six-game winning streak and shooting the ball much better recently, I will ride with the Kings who have performed well as a favorite (6-1 on ML) and road favorite (3-0 on ML) this season.
I laid the -115 odds on the Kings ML at BetMGM. This is at -130 on DraftKings. I would play this out to -140 or -3 odds. Desmond Bane is out for Memphis and Ja Morant is doubtful.
Pick: Kings ML (1u)
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