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Mikal Bridges O/U 4.5 Rebounds vs. Clippers
This prop is an interesting play and number for a guy coming off a playoff-high 13 rebounds. Mikal Bridges has played well the past few games and watched his minutes increase to 39 minutes in Game 4.
In the last five outings, Bridges has recorded 6, 1, 5, 6 and 13 rebounds. Nevertheless, his line is 4.5 for +100 or better on some outlets and -115 on PointsBet.
I believe that is enough value to place a wager on Bridges tonight but going over why he is a good play, there a few reasons.
Over the past 10 games, Bridges increased his rebounding drastically.
In the first four playoff games, he went 0-4 on the Over at the 4.5 number, but in the last 10, he is 7-3 (70%) to the Over, per props.cash.
When he plays 30 minutes, Bridges has a 60% hit rate to the Over in the postseason (6/10) and a 62.5% hit rate at 34 or more minutes (5/8).
Versus the Clippers, Bridges has hit the Over three-of-four times (75%) in the playoffs and six-of-seven (85.7%) on the season overall. Los Angeles is struggling on the boards with its small-ball lineup minus Kawhi Leonard, and as a result, Bridges has taken advantage.
In the last four games, Los Angeles surrenders 46.0 rebounds per game, the fourth-most among the 16 team’s past four in the postseason.
The Clippers tied with the Nuggets for the fewest rebounds allowed to opponents in the regular season with 41.2 per game. In the postseason, they are ranked second with 41.5 behind the Jazz (40.2).
It just seems like the Suns are forcing tougher shots and giving them problems on the boards compared to the Nuggets or Jazz. I would say Leonard’s six-game absence has a lot do with that.
However, the Suns are not far behind with 45.0 rebounds allowed per game in the series, meaning there have been 91 rebounds on average per contest, and Bridges only needs five.
NBC’s model predicts Bridges to record 5.7 rebounds in 36 minutes of action, hitting the Over. Bridges averages 6.4 rebounds in seven total meetings with the Clippers this season, so this 4.5 number seems low.
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As far as Bridges’ teammates, Devin Booker did not make much of an impact in the previous game outside of scoring. Booker had two rebounds and zero assists. Those numbers will likely increase as he felt more comfortable with the mask off.
Chris Paul has grabbed six total rebounds in two games back, while Cam Johnson averages 4.0 in the series and Jae Crowder 5.8. There have been enough rebounds to go around for the Suns that Deandre Ayton grabbed 22 in Game 4 and averages 13.5 for the series.
Ayton totaled 9, 13 and 9 in his first three games, while Bridges had 1, 5 and 6 in that span.
Considering Bridges’ rebound chances to solidify whether or not this is a good play, he posts solid numbers to bet on.
Bridges averages 9.4 rebound chances per game in the last 10 overall and 10.3 in the past four (all versus the Clippers), per NBA.com. In the past two games, that number climbed to 12.5 and of course, in Bridges’ big Game 4 performance of 13 rebounds -- he had 17 rebound chances.
At this rate, Bridges is grabbing 61% of his rebound chances versus the Clippers and 62% in his past five games. That is compared to his 53.3% rate in the playoffs overall. If he can get double-digit or even nine rebound chances, statistically speaking, we should be in business.
Bridges’ rebound numbers are impressive, and with 50 total rebound chances in his past five games, I will assume Bridges plays a hefty 35-minute load after his last performance and stays aggressive enough on the boards to hit the Over with five-plus rebounds.
Pick: Mikal Bridges Over 4.5 Rebounds (1u)
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