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My picks went just 11-11 last week but still came out profitable for +5.15 units with the bigger plays cashing. That brings my record to 175-122-5 for +74.8 units on the season, including 43-32-2 for +20.5 units since the start of 2022. I have three picks today on home dogs I like for the 11-game NBA slate on Friday, Jan. 28.
Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the more under-the radar stories of the new year, with a record above .500 in 2022 and an ATS record above .500 in that span. Portland hasn’t played better without Damian Lillard and other starters in the lineup but the defense has improved as young players like Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little gain more playing time.
Little was in the midst of a breakout season before a recent injury that will hold him out of this matchup. In five games without Little this season, Portland’s net rating drops from -4 to -8.2 points per 100 possessions, and the team’s offensive rebounding rate drops by 6.4% when Little is on the bench.
The Rockets have been the worst team in the month of January so far, with a -10.1 net rating and 4-8 SU record, but this could be a good spot for Houston to get a win. The Blazers have struggled to stop opponents all season and it will be even harder with Little missing time. Portland allows the highest opponents three-point accuracy of any team this season, permitting teams to shoot nearly 42.5% on corner three-point attempts.
Houston ranks fifth in shot frequency from three-point range, with above-average accuracy from deep according to Cleaning the Glass. No team embodies the “live and die by the three” mentality more than the Rockets. Houston made less than a third of three-point attempts in 21 games so far this year and went 0-21 in those outings, compared to 9-5 SU when knocking down at least 40% of shots from beyond the arc.
I think the Rockets will hit enough threes to get a win at home tonight, and I like Houston up to the moneyline for this matchup.
EDGE: Houston Rockets +2.5 (2 Units)
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San Antonio Spurs vs. Chicago Bulls
Dejounte Murray should have a strong performance in this game with the Bulls missing Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball. While Ayo Dosunmu is a strong defensive guard, the Bulls could struggle to defend San Antonio’s guard combination of Murray and Derrick White. In 19 games without Caruso, Chicago’s defensive rating jumps from 109.8 to 113.5 points allowed per 100 possessions, with a net rating swing from +1.6 all the way to -4.1.
The Bulls force turnovers 3.3% more often with Caruso on the court, a 97th percentile differential. Caruso’s ability as a ball hawk is part of what makes Chicago such a dangerous team, as the Bulls lead the league in efficiency on shots taken after a turnover, according to inpredictable.com.
I’m interested to see how Chicago fares against the strong transition defense of San Antonio, especially without Caruso or Ball to force turnovers. The Spurs allow the third-lowest eFG% to opponents after turnovers, and no team holds opponents to fewer points per possession in transition than San Antonio. The Spurs also commit giveaways at a low frequency, with the second-lowest turnover rate in the league, and that turnover rate drops by 2.8% with Murray on the court.
I’m confident in the Spurs to win the turnover battle in this game, which should be enough to earn a home win. The Bulls went 15-5 SU when forcing a turnover rate of 15% or higher this season, compared to 15-12 SU in all other games. Limiting turnovers and transition opportunities is the best way to beat the Bulls, so I’m backing the Spurs up to the moneyline tonight.
EDGE: San Antonio Spurs +2 (2 Units)
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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets
The Pelicans have some injuries pending so I’ll be eyeing the injury report before this game tips off, but even if Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart sit I like the Pelicans for at least one unit. New Orleans put up a bottom-five offensive rating through the first two months of the season and was looking like one of the most disappointing teams in the league, but the Pelicans improved since then and actually put up a net rating close to even over the past 10 games.
Herb Jones has been a huge part of that resurgence, as the rookie is making a case for an All Defensive Team as one of the top stoppers in the league in his first season. His offensive game has also expanded to give the Pelicans a strong two-way wing on a rookie deal. New Orleans sees a 15.5 points per 100 possessions jump in net rating with Jones on the court, which ranks in the 97th percentile at Cleaning the Glass.
Denver’s recent success is due to the heavy burden carried by Nikola Jokic, along with some strong rebounding numbers. No team is capable of stopping the reigning MVP, but the Pelicans should be able to keep this game close if they can win the battle of the boards. New Orleans ranks sixth in offensive rebounding rate while holding opponents to the second-lowest rate of offensive rebounds.
Jonas Valanciunas plays a big role in that ranking and should be the main Jokic defense for this game. The Pelicans allow opponents to grab 4.5% fewer offensive boards with Valanciunas on the court, and the big man grabbed five offensive boards while limiting Jokic to only one offensive rebound in the last matchup between these teams, an overtime win for Denver.
I’d feel even more confident if Brandon Ingram is active, especially since he’s having an impressive season since the team’s slow start, but I like New Orleans to keep this game close either way.
EDGE: New Orleans Pelicans +6 (1 Unit)
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