Vaughn Dalzell breaks down a series-clinching home game for the Boston Celtics as they host the Miami Heat in Game 5 up 3-1 in the first round.
Heat at Celtics (-13.5): O/U 200.0
Miami recorded quarters of 12 points in each of the past two home games, plus a 14-point third quarter in Game 1 at Boston. Outside of Game 2’s outlier where the Heat went bonkers from three (23/43 (53.5%), this Miami team has little to no ball movement without Jimmy Butler.
The Heat posted 26 free throws (76.9%) and went 18-of-61 from three (29.5%) in the last two games. Down 3-1 and at Boston, I know Miami’s mentality will be to steal one and go back to Miami with a chance to force Game 7, but I don’t see it happening.
Patty Mills has entered the rotation for Miami as they lack depth, plus role players like Haywood Highsmith (5.0 PPG), Nikola Jovic (9.8 PPG), and Caleb Martin (12.0 PPG) aren’t producing enough offense to compete with Boston.
I played the Under 200 at -110 odds on DraftKings and would go down to 199. I expect another boring game like we’ve seen in 2.5 out of four games thus far.
The game totals in this series have combined for 208, 211, 188, and 190 points, plus Miami scored 95 or fewer points in seven out of the last nine playoff games.
Pick: Celtics vs Heat Under 200.0 (1u)
Season Record: 48-39 (55.1%) +9.85 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
Risk 2u: Clippers vs Mavericks Series Over 5.5 Games (-195)
Risk 2u: Cavaliers to win series vs Magic (-184)
1u: Cavaliers to win Game 1 vs Magic and series (-110)
1u: Knicks to win series vs 76ers (-118)
1u: Knicks to win Game 1 vs 76ers and series (+170)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
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