Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his Monday betting card for the MLB slate, including Dylan Cease and Justin Verlander, plus the Braves hosting the Twins.
JUSTIN VERLANDER O/U 6.5 STRIKEOUTS VS. BREWERS
At 40-years-old, Justin Verlander is still putting up quality start but has been on-and-off when it comes to strikeouts.
The Mets’ vet owns his lowest strikeout percentage since 2015 (20.5%), but he’s also pitched against some of the best offenses in baseball.
On the road, Verlander pitched at Houston (5 Ks), Atlanta (3 Ks), Colorado (2 Ks), Cincinnati (7 Ks) and Detroit (5 Ks).
At home, Verlander hosted Toronto (8 Ks), Cleveland (5 Ks), Tampa Bay (3 Ks) and the New York Yankees (6 Ks).
While he is 6-2 to the Under 6.5 Ks this season (75%), you have to admit, outside the Detroit Tigers all those teams have top 15 offenses (Colorado was at home).
The Brewers have the sixth-most strikeouts on the season (728) and second-worst batting average (.226). Over the past seven days and six games, Milwaukee is hitting .197 (28th) and struck out 57 times (10th-most).
Verlander has a good history versus the five current Brewer’s he’s faced (14 Ks, 0 BB, 6 H in 41 PA), so I played Over 6.5 Ks at +105 odds and would go to -115.
Tanner Bibee (7 Ks), Shane Bieber (8 Ks) and Merrill Kelly (7 Ks) hit 7+ in the past week vs Milwaukee.
Pick: Justin Verlander Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
DYLAN CEASE O/U 16.5 OUTS VS. ANGELS
Dylan Cease isn’t quite the money-maker he was last season, but I like him to go 6.0 innings ahead of this road matchup with the Angels.
Los Angeles is coming off a series against the Rockies where they scored 32 runs to 11 and lost the series 2-1. The Angels offense and the team overall have been inconsistent lately, going 2-5 in the past seven games.
This month, 15 out of 22 (68.1%) starting pitchers have stayed Under 16.5 Outs against Los Angeles but RHP have found success.
Starting RHP have gone at least 5.0 innings (15 outs) in 10 out of 15 games (66.6%) and four out of eight (50%) when pitching at Los Angeles. That’s good news for Cease who is having his best month of the season.
Cease has gone 5.1 (16 outs) or 6.0 innings (18 outs) in his last four starts with 95 or more pitches. Cease allowed five or fewer hits and two or less earned runs in all four, so he may be warming up with his 2.38 ERA in June.
I played Cease Over 16.5 Outs at -130 odds. I expect 6+ innings. I’d play Over 17.5 for +100 or better.
Pick: Dylan Cease Over 16.5 Outs (1u)
TWINS (+175) AT BRAVES (-205): O/U 8.0
Spencer Strider starts for Atlanta and the Braves are 6-1 at home when he’s on the mound.
Atlanta’s won five-straight starts behind Strider and is 13-2 on the season. Strider is 8-2 with a 3.93 ERA over those 15 starts and the Braves’ offense is clicking right now.
Atlanta is coming off 24 runs scored in a three-game series versus the Reds and looks as dangerous as anyone ahead of this home game.
On the other hand, Sonny Gray will go for Minnesota and he’s 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA over 15 starts. The Twins are 8-7 in Gray’s 15 starts and 3-6 since May with 3.5 runs scored per game compared to 4.8 allowed per game.
Minnesota hasn’t had a day off since June 12 playing 13-straight games. Atlanta had a day off because of weather in Philadelphia, so I expect fatigue and the overall talent difference between these two teams to catch up to Minnesota after playing Detroit in seven of the last 11 games.
I played the Braves -1 at -155 odds and wouldn’t talk anyone off Atlanta -1.5 at +100 or better.
Pick: Braves -1 (Risk 1u)
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