Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting on the Monday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders.
Packers at Raiders (-1.5): O/U 46.5
This spread opened -2.5 at DraftKings in favor of Green Bay with Jimmy Garoppolo in concussion protocol, but with Jimmy G ruled in for this contest, the Raiders are now -1.5 home favorites.
Green Bay should close as an underdog, making them an underdog in every game so far (3-1 ATS). The Packers have won six straight games on Monday Night Football, but those were all with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
This is a revenge game for Davante Adams, who has never played his former Packers team. Adams did not practice for two straight days with a shoulder issue, but if he plays, the spread will move and he should be a reliable target.
Las Vegas is an NFL-worst -9 in turnover margin, but the Packers have four takeaways in four games, so this is a good spot for Jimmy G and the Raiders to clean up the offense. Green Bay’s defense allows 155.2 rushing yards per game, which was the third-most entering the week.
Josh Jacobs should find success against Green Bay who also permits 4.5 ypc (25th) and five rushing touchdowns. Jordan Love is one of the worst QBs under pressure and with Maxx Crosby and an aggressive Raiders defense at home, I expect plenty of blitzes and pressure from Las Vegas.
I faded Green Bay last week and despite the expected improvement in back-to-back primetime games, I still think the Packers have a way to go.
The home Raiders are a playoff contender and the road Packers are not. I played the Raiders on the ML at -125 odds and would go out to -140.
Pick: Raiders ML (1u)
Season Record: 23-13-1 (63.8%) +8.66 units
*all odds courtesy of DraftKings
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