Marcus Freeman agrees with Lincoln Riley. At least publicly, and certainly unsurprisingly, the Notre Dame head coach thinks USC’s defense is playing well this season.
“They’re aggressive, they have a good scheme,” Freeman said Thursday. “I know some of the stats might not say it, but they’ve been really good. They have athletes all over the field. Those guys on the front, they put a lot of pressure on the quarterback in the pass game.
“I know our offense has a great challenge ahead of it.”
The latter thought may be truer than the former, and mostly only relatively so. Then again, Freeman did say, “The stats might not say it,” and they certainly do not speak in favor of the Trojans defense.
Of the many struggles plaguing the Irish offense in recent weeks, chief among them has been third-down failures.
Notre Dame (5-2) has gone 11-of-38 on third downs in three straight primetime games against unbeaten ranked foes. A quartet of fourth-down conversions (4-of-8) improve those troubles only so much, effectively 15-of-38, a 39.5 percent rate compared to a 59.1 percent rate through the first four Irish games.
“It’s just making sure we’re clear with our details of what your responsibility is,” Freeman said Thursday. “... If we have to simplify so there’s no confusion in what we’re doing and why we’re doing it and how we have to get it done, then we have to do that.”
The trend line has been consistently downward for Notre Dame, going from adding 0.1 expected points per offensive snap against the Buckeyes to 0.09 against the Blue Devils to losing 0.37 expected points per offensive snap against the Cardinals. (Expected points factor in down, distance, time, score and field position to project a drive’s conclusion, meaning each new down has a new expected points total. The difference between one down and the next thus gives an expected points result to each play.)
The Irish offense succeeded on 47 percent of its snaps against Ohio State and just 39 percent at Louisville, a 32 percent folly at Duke counteracted by a handful of explosive plays, most notably four on Notre Dame’s game-winning, last-minute drive.
Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona have outscored their usual averages against USC across the last three weeks. Remove Arizona’s points in two overtimes against the Trojans, and USC gave up an average of 8.5 more points to them than they have otherwise averaged against FBS opponents — in which those three have gone a combined 6-10.
To the current Notre Dame topic, the top-line item embodying the overall Irish struggles, USC gave up conversions on 58 percent of that trio’s late downs (29-of-50). Those three teams are focused on both because they are the Trojans’ three most recent opponents and because they are the three best teams USC has faced, combining for an average overall SP+ ranking of No. 69.3, compared to the No. 105 average of the first three teams the Trojans faced. (The SP+ figures in the above table are offense-specific.)
In Arizona State’s, Colorado’s and Arizona’s other games, they combined to convert 46.5 percent of their late downs.
USC head coach Lincoln Riley stood up for his defense this week, as would be expected, but he also acknowledged room for improvement. Then again, that would also be expected from most coach-speak.
“We’re not hiding from the areas that we’ve got to continue to make improvement,” Riley said Tuesday. “There certainly are some.
“But this is a much-improved unit. There is no question about it. This is a unit that when you talk about top-end potential, (it) has a chance to really grow and get better fast given some of the youth, some of the new people, some of the quality depth that we have.”
Those are the athletes Freeman was referencing, a bit of weekly coach-speak, and the Trojans defensive line, “those guys on the front” as Freeman said, does indeed lead the country in tackles for loss with 57 and is No. 4 in sacks with 22. But the flip side has been giving up 4.19 yards per rush and 0.027 expected points added per rush against, per cfb-graphs.com.
To reiterate, the Trojans have yet to face a top-30 team and only one in the top half of the country in just about any overall metric.
In the case of the stoppable force (the Irish offense) against the moveable object (the Trojans defense), this step down in competition for Notre Dame and step up for USC should most show itself on third downs, perhaps giving the Irish a needed reprieve.
"You're going to have a tough game, you're going to have a tough quarter."
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 11, 2023
Lincoln, buddy, you gave up 28 to Ariz. St, 41 to Colorado and 28 (in regulation) to Arizona.
Their averages against other FBS opponents: 15, 31.4 and 25.
That's not a tough game. That's half your season. https://t.co/ufjuK0o42l
ON JORDAN FAISON
As soon as Faison stepped onto the field at Louisville, he earned a football scholarship. A scholarship lacrosse player up until that point, on a partial scholarship as is the norm in that sport, the freshman receiver caught two passes for 48 yards and a touchdown.
NCAA rules do not allow a scholarship player in another sport to play football, meaning that scholarship reverts to a football counter as soon as the player takes a snap.
Hence, Faison’s first catch, a 12-yard third-down conversion, may have meant more to him than his 36-yard touchdown two plays later. That third-down meant Faison was immediately on a full scholarship. There was a reason Faison celebrated his score with the universal sign for money, rubbing two fingers against his thumb.
IRISH ANSWER.
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) October 8, 2023
What a time for your first collegiate touchdown @Jordan6Faison 💪#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/n343bcdJKC
Faison drew attention in the preseason, impressing early and often. Only Iowa offered him a football scholarship out of high school, an irony in that the Hawkeyes are one of the few teams more desperate for contributing receivers than Notre Dame currently is.
“With the health of our wide receiver room right now and where we’re at, we really had no choice,” Irish offensive coordinator Gerad Parker said Tuesday. “We have to get some guys that we believe can separate and run. We don’t care who or how tall they are. We have to have some guys who can separate and do this to finish this year the way we expect to on offense.”
Two notes. First of all, Faison is listed at 5-foot-10 ⅛ and 182 pounds. He’s No. 80, if still wondering.
Secondly, freshman receiver Jaden Greathouse and junior receiver Jayden Thomas are expected to be closer and closer to 100 percent coming off hamstring issues that sidelined them at Duke and limited them at Louisville, but junior Deion Colzie will continue to be out this weekend after a knee surgery earlier this season, and sixth-year former walk-on Matt Salerno is expected to be out through the regular season. If counting Faison and the two hamstring worries, Notre Dame has seven available receivers with the seventh being freshman Braylon James, who may not be up to varsity level just yet.
Dating back to 2015, there have been 14 pre-bowl instances of a team 6-0 or better being an underdog vs a two-loss team. 11 of the 14 lost outright, including USC last year at Utah, when the 6-0 Trojans lost 43-42 as a 3.5-point underdog to the 4-2 Utes.
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 9, 2023
LOUISVILLE RECAPS
— Notre Dame offense unravels in 33-20 loss at Louisville
— How it happened: Three key plays that cost Notre Dame when Louisville had not yet keyed up the rout
— Things We Learned: Familiar Notre Dame worry led to handful of forced mistakes, not a program-wide crisis
INSIDE THE IRISH
— Notre Dame’s 2023 Opponents: Caleb Williams’s heroics overshadowed by USC’s continued defensive struggles
— And In That Corner ... USC, Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams put unbeaten season on line at Notre Dame
— How to watch USC vs Notre Dame on Saturday and Irish football all season: TV, streaming info for 2023
"You're going to have a tough game, you're going to have a tough quarter."
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 11, 2023
Lincoln, buddy, you gave up 28 to Ariz. St, 41 to Colorado and 28 (in regulation) to Arizona.
Their averages against other FBS opponents: 15, 31.4 and 25.
That's not a tough game. That's half your season. https://t.co/ufjuK0o42l
OUTSIDE READING
— Notre Dame’s loss to Louisville raises doubts on Marcus Freeman, springboards Jeff Brohm
— Tennessee State University hurt by ‘systemic racism’ says Eddie George
— How WR Jordan Faison came up big for Notre Dame football when elevated
— Football weekend events: Notre Dame vs. USC
— 49ers LG Aaron Banks avoids serious injury
— Inside the wacky 2023 college football season, why expert picks have missed so badly
— Money still can’t buy close-game common sense for high-priced coaches
— NHL players should gear up to use Pride Tape despite league ban