Leaving an impromptu gathering of old friends, a few East Coasters worn out from running in a world-record setting Chicago Marathon, one dared to ask, “In five seconds, what’s your analysis of Notre Dame last night?”
The brief response, brief both to preserve some sanity in what had otherwise been a delightfully football-free Sunday and to get out the door as intended: “Eh, it made two or three mistakes. That’s about it.”
Shock followed, shock at the dismissive thoughts of an Irish apocalypse and shock that the refs were not part of the immediate response.
But an Irish apocalypse would require thinking now-No. 21 Notre Dame (5-2) revealed new flaws on Saturday night, and the 33-20 loss at now-No. 14 Louisville (6-0) confirmed old failings. It did not revealed new ones.
The Irish receivers room is improved compared to years past, but it is still lacking in both quality and quantity, particularly compared to teams at the level Notre Dame intends to reach. The early-season emergence of freshman Jaden Greathouse camouflaged much of that, but a hamstring injury sidelined him at Duke and still bothered him this weekend. Irish quarterback Sam Hartman did not even target Greathouse on his 17 snaps out of 66 plays.
Four Notre Dame receivers took more snaps than Greathouse, while walk-on receiver Jordan Faison nearly matched him with 15. (A scholarship lacrosse player, Faison’s scholarship converted to a football counter as soon as he played this weekend.)
For context: Greathouse was within two snaps of taking the third-most among receivers at North Carolina State and against Central Michigan; he was eight back this weekend. (A preponderance of multiple-tight end sets limited his usage against Ohio State.)
“He was practicing, but not to the full extent,” Irish head coach Marcus Freeman said Monday. “I would see him having an increased role as long as he continues to practice the way we need him to practice.”
With Greathouse limited, this familiar Notre Dame worry reared its head. Jayden Thomas (also perhaps a bit balky from a hamstring worry) and Tobias Merriweather did not worry opponents a year ago, and they do not yet, either. Ohio State trusted its defensive backs alone to hold up against them. Duke and Louisville went a step further, effectively ignoring the Irish passing game, selling out in the trenches and thus haranguing Hartman.
“They were stacking the box and saying they were going to refuse to let you run the ball, and that means we’re going to make some plays in the passing game,” Freeman said Saturday night. “We didn’t, and we have to make sure we can not let this happen again.”
That will be easier said than done, just as it was easier said than done a year ago with offensive coordinator Tommy Rees and quarterback Drew Pyne. A more traveled offensive coordinator and one of the best quarterbacks in the country have not solved Notre Dame’s dearth of notable receivers.
Army has played five games. Notre Dame seven.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 9, 2023
In ND's last five games, its scholarship receivers have caught 40 passes. (65 on the season.)
Remove converted running back Chris Tyree, Notre Dame scholarship receivers recruited as receivers in the last five games: 30 catches. (51) https://t.co/xUowa5vP69
And as long as that is the case, opponents like Louisville — overmatched along the defensive line but not embarrassingly so — can devote linebackers and safeties to stopping the Irish run, rendering the roster’s best assets largely moot. No matter how good an offensive line is or how powerful junior running back Audric Estimé is, an extra man in the tackle box will stymie a power rush game.
“Are we dominating the line of scrimmage? No,” Freeman said. “... Offensively, if we aren’t able to run the ball the way we want to, then we didn’t dominate the line of scrimmage. That’s where we have to improve.”
While a knee injury bothering junior left guard Pat Coogan sparked Saturday’s surprising and arguably ill-advised offensive line rotations, Louisville’s added defenders and overall aggressiveness sparked the repeated Irish attempts at misdirection, attempts that yielded a 3rd-and-1 fumbled handoff between Hartman and running back-turned-receiver Chris Tyree on something of a disguised jet sweep.
Estimé finished with 20 yards on 10 rushes, rarely able to get to the line of scrimmage unadulterated. Some credit should go to the Cardinals’ defensive line, but mostly, credit goes to the defensive coordinators Mark Hagen and Ron English for correctly disregarding Notre Dame’s receivers.
And no offense can survive in 2023 when defense’s disregard its receivers. Few offenses run the ball well enough to make running the ball often worthwhile. “Expected points added” is used as a frequent stat around here, a metric that looks at a down-and-distance on a yard-line, factors in time and score, and assigns an expected point total to the drive. Each down-and-distance has a unique expected point total, so any given play changes that drive’s expectation. Keep track of those changes, average them, and you get expected points added per rush or per dropback.
Consider an old-school team, Greg Schiano’s Rutgers. Its EPA per dropback ranked No. 68 in the country entering the weekend at 0.168 points, per cfb-graphs.com. Such a rate of gain rushing the ball would rank No. 25 in the country (Maryland).
In other words, a rather average passing attack matches a top-tier rushing attack. That shows up in the most bruising of teams.
Michigan runs the ball about as much as would be expected given game state, yet its EPA per rush was only 0.043 points entering the weekend (No. 60), compared to its EPA per dropback of 0.528 (No. 10).
Georgia hardly runs the ball, understandably so given its EPA per dropback was 0.293 points entering the weekend (No. 36) and its EPA per rush was 0.045 points (No. 58).
They are the national championship favorites for a reason. They can run the ball, but they know their true success comes through the air.
Louisville may have beaten the Irish on two long runs, but those were the types of plays that swing a game but should not be counted on week-to-week.
Like I said, ND was with Louisville on a down-to-down basishttps://t.co/LNXephN5iI
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 9, 2023
“I thought defensively we did a really good job,” Freeman said. “You always say ‘if,’ if we didn’t give up the two explosive runs for touchdowns, but if is a good and a bad word at times.
“I thought our D-line played well. I thought they got after the quarterback, I thought they put pressure, for the most part we were able to stop the run. For the most part, right? You take away those two big runs, I was pleased with the play of our D-line.”
Freeman went on to assign the fault for those two long runs away from the defensive line, rightly so, missed fits from second- and third-level defenders turning mild gains into 21- and 45-yard touchdowns.
“We gotta fit the right gap, then we gotta tackle,” Freeman said. “I don’t blame our defensive line.”
And the 21-yard touchdown run came in part because a dubious flag kept a Louisville drive alive, fifth-year linebacker Marist Liufau called for a facemask penalty away from the ball seemingly because a blocker propelled Liufau’s hand into an offensive lineman’s facemask.
Hence the Sunday afternoon anticipation of some officiating conspiracy
“Word on the street is the refs are biased against Notre Dame!” that friend said.
The only street convinced of such an alternate reality was Vincent Street, circa 2004 in “The Wire.” Remember folks, two people can keep a secret only if one of them is dead. The NFL does not rig games, Las Vegas has no hand in outcomes, and referees are not biased against Notre Dame simply because they make mistakes.
That call on Liufau may have been such a mistake. Remove that touchdown and the trio of Cardinals’ field goals gifted by the Irish offense getting sloppy in desperation, and Louisville scored 16 points.
Doubt it changes things. Notre Dame had shown no signs of finding a quality drive.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 8, 2023
But the face mask penalty on Marist Liufau to extend a Louisville drive, then got the Cards a late 24-13 lead?
Dubious call. OL blocks him from the side, hand bumped up into another OL's face mask.
The greater issue was that the Notre Dame offense scored only 13 points before garbage time. The Irish did not have the receivers to worry defenses last year, and preseason hype has not proven to be reality this season, a fact worsened this month with Greathouse’s limitations.
That created undue pressure on Notre Dame’s offensive line, and the Irish front then grasping for straws revealed the offensive worries.
“I don’t think they were physically more dominant than us,” left tackle Joe Alt said Saturday. “We just got on our heels a little bit with our confidence level. We have to continue to be confident through our looks and trusting ourselves and trusting our abilities.”
Notre Dame did not have the margin of error to make a few mistakes — Hartman’s opening-drive interception, the fumbled handoff to Tyree, kicking a field goal from plus-territory in the second half when already trailing, Liufau’s murky facemask penalty all come to mind — and that showed in the offensive line’s poor performance.
Little else was learned Saturday night. No program-wide indictment should come from two bad plays, one bad game management choice and a judgement penalty. From there, 18- to 23-year-olds crumbled on already uncertain footing. As long as the Irish lack playmakers, that risk will remain, opening up too many other vulnerabilities.
That total opened at 61.5, now up to 62.5.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 8, 2023
And Notre Dame is now a 2.5-point favorite, inching toward that field goal.