As most college football teams have reached the midpoint of their regular season, it’s time to take a look at what we like to call the “Expectation Index.”
It’s a simple combination of a team’s actual record with it’s record versus the pointspread that gives you a look at who’s going above and beyond and who’s truly disappointing. There’s no hardline conclusions here, but it’s always interesting to look at once you’re into mid-October.
Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not create spreads in an effort to predict outcomes. Their business is about finding a balance in the betting among the wagering public to increase the profit margins resulting from the vigorish.
However, their numbers do give us a solid indication of how a team has been performing in relation to the public’s expectations of its strength.
The teams that post healthy results in the win-loss column and also overcome the handicap placed on them by Las Vegas are truly displaying a dominant nature.
Perhaps it’s no surprise that Alabama, Boise State and Florida are undefeated as we enter Week 7, but you certainly also have to be impressed with each team’s ability to also overcome several instances of heavy lumber.
Alabama -- 11-1 (.917, 6-0 straight up, 5-1 vs. the spread)
Boise State -- 10-1 (.909, 6-0, 4-1)
Florida -- 8-1 (.889, 5-0, 3-1)
But also take a look at Idaho. The surprising Vandals are really taking care of business. Nebraska and Ohio State are in a similar boat.
Idaho -- 11-1 (.917, 5-1, 6-0)
Nebraska -- 9-1 (.900, 4-1, 5-0)
Ohio State -- 10-2 (.833, 5-1, 5-1)
When you consider that the average record of the 11 FBS conference champions last season was 11-2.5 and that a .500 record versus the spread is the overall norm, the median “Expectation Index” of an elite team should be around .658. The six teams listed above are well out in front.
At the other end of the spectrum, you’ll find teams at the bottom of their league standings that additionally can’t even put the pointspread (which is often quite large) to good use.
We knew these teams were bad, but they’re even worse than that.
Florida Atlantic -- 0-8 (.000, 0-4, 0-4)
New Mexico -- 1-11 (.083, 0-6, 1-5)
Rice -- 1-11 (.083, 0-6, 1-5)
And how much more disappointing are the Bulldogs and Fighting Illini when you look at this?
Georgia -- 4-8 (.333, 3-3, 1-5)
Illinois -- 1-8 (.111, 1-4, 0-4)
In the middle, you’ll find several teams -- including five traditional powerhouses -- that are doing fine on the scoreboard, but often have been a drain on alumni pocketbooks.
USC -- 6-4 (.600, 4-1, 2-3)
Texas -- 6-4 (.600, 5-0, 1-4)
LSU -- 7-5 (.583, 5-1, 2-4)
Penn State -- 6-5 (.545, 5-1, 1-4)
Notre Dame -- 5-5 (.500, 4-1, 1-4)
Here’s some other “Expectation Index” numbers that you might find interesting.
South Florida -- 7-1 (.875, 5-0, 2-1)
Houston -- 7-1 (.875, 4-1, 3-1)
Iowa -- 9-2 (.818, 6-0, 3-2)
Central Michigan -- 9-2 (.818, 5-1, 4-1)
South Carolina -- 9-2 (.818, 5-1, 4-1)
Auburn -- 9-3 (.750, 5-1, 4-2)
BYU -- 9-3 (.750, 5-1, 4-2)
Oregon -- 9-3 (.750, 5-1, 4-2 )
Cincinnati -- 7-2 (.778, 5-0, 2-2)
Kansas -- 7-2 (.778, 5-0, 2-2 )
TCU -- 7-2 (.778, 5-0, 2-2)
Miami (Fla.) -- 7-2 (.778, 4-1, 3-1)
Connecticut -- 7-2 (.778, 3-2, 4-0)
Georgia Tech -- 8-3 (.727, 5-1, 3-2)
Pittsburgh -- 8-3 (.727, 5-1, 3-2)
Virginia Tech -- 8-4 (.667, 5-1, 3-3)
Michigan -- 8-4 (.667, 4-2, 4-2)
Stanford -- 8-4 (.667, 4-2, 4-2)
Wisconsin -- 7-4 (.636, 5-1, 2-3)
Tennessee -- 6-6 (.500, 3-3, 3-3)
Utah -- 5-5 (.500, 4-1, 1-4)
Oklahoma -- 4-5 (.444, 3-2, 1-3)
Colorado -- 4-6 (.400, 1-4, 3-2)
Florida State -- 3-8 (.273, 2-4, 1-4)
Ball State -- 3-8 (.273, 0-6, 3-2)
Eastern Michigan -- 1-9 (.100, 0-5, 1-4)
