In recent seasons, complaints about “too many home runs” were common on social media platforms. I myself was guilty – I like balls in play. The three true outcomes (walks, strikeouts, and home runs) are, in a word, predictable. A batted ball can be anything! These same social media platforms are now flooded with folks begging Major League Baseball to bring back the juiced balls. There’s no pleasing some people, huh?
They do have a point. The current pace of 4,401 home runs is one of the worst of the 30-team era. Batting average is at a historic low as hitters continue to sell out for power at the cost of strikeouts. Hitters can adjust to a new meta, but there’s always a lag. Part of that is the players themselves making changes to their mechanics and approach. It’s also a function of teams re-learning how to use certain players.
There is one other little thing to spotlight before we move on: Ronald Acuña is back baby! Presently, he projects for roughly 38 home runs in 575 plate appearances. Amazingly, he still has a shot at the home run crown!
Weekly Leaders
Anthony Rizzo, 5 HR
Taylor Ward, 4 HR
Willy Adames, 4 HR
Austin Riley, 4 HR
8 Others, 3 HR
Yankees Stadium is a helluva drug. Rizzo had a three-homer game on Tuesday without hitting a single ball over 100-mph. Such fly balls are usually lazy outs rather than dingers. Still, we can look forward to more cheapies from Rizzo and other Yankees sluggers. With nine home runs already banked, he now projects for 37 this season. Perhaps a career-year is in the offing for the aging first baseman!
Ward generated angst from observers when he returned mid-month and pushed Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh out of daily starts. Ward profiles as a fourth-outfielder. Adell and Marsh could be stars. Manager Joe Maddon exacerbated questions when he intentionally walked in a run about 10 days ago. If his judgment is that poor, then can he be counted on to make intelligent choices with the lineup? Yes, apparently. Ward is batting .404/.517/.830 with five home runs and a steal. He’s barreling the ball at an elite rate, although I don’t see any statistical reasons to expect a continuation of his success. In particular, his exit velocities are ordinary. He’ll likely immediately regress to something in the range of a .260/.345/.450 hitter – just north of where he settled in 237 plate appearances last season.
Folks were starting to ask me if they should cut Adames for so-and-so last week – inevitably, a much worse player. His hot week has him right back near where he was hitting last season. The current .225/.311/.463 batting line is good for a 122 wRC+ (22% above league average). Meanwhile, Riley seems to be building on his incredible 2021 breakout, if that’s possible.
Of the guys with three home runs, only Charlie Blackmon is notable and that’s only because he’s obviously entered a decline phase. We should still expect good hitters with a history of 30-dinger seasons to occasionally post a three-homer week. Lest I seem dismissive of Blackmon, I still believe he was one of the best bargains of draft season – a consistent if fading hitter who doesn’t hurt any categories.
My Top 10 Projected Home Run Leaders
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 43 HR
Pete Alonso, 42 HR
Byron Buxton, 42 HR
Jose Ramirez, 42 HR
Salvador Perez, 40 HR
Aaron Judge, 40 HR
Mike Trout, 40 HR
Joey Gallo, 40 HR
Shohei Ohtani, 39 HR
George Springer, 39 HR
My model does not yet incorporate the effects of whatever’s happening to power leaguewide – mainly because we don’t have the kind of information I can put into my model. I could adjust everyone’s expected HR/FB ratio down by some set percentage, but that feels both premature and insufficient given that players with large home parks are disproportionately affected.
It’s early in the year so it’s not uncommon to see hot and cold starts affect the Top 10 projections. This week, Brandon Lowe, Nolan Arenado, C.J. Cron, and Nelson Cruz slipped off the list. Taking their places are Judge, Trout, Gallo, and Springer. Of those, only Springer wasn’t on the list two weeks ago.
Injured
New
Eloy Jimenez, hamstring, June
Kris Bryant, back, early-May
Wil Myers, thumb, mid-May
Luke Voit, biceps, early-May
Brandon Belt, COVID, soon
Mike Yastrzemski, COVID, soon
Mitch Haniger, ankle, mid-May
Haniger recovered from COVID only to sprain his ankle. An IL-stint seems inevitable. The Padres lost a couple sluggers to nagging injuries – a bruised thumb for Myers and biceps tendinitis for Voit. Bryant has a sore back which might have been contributing to his early-season slump. Jimenez is the big loss of the week. Any time you see a surgical solution to a hamstring injury, it indicates a multiple-month absence. I’ve seen reports suggesting he’ll return in June, so that’s what I’ll list. Count me as skeptical.
J.D. Martinez has missed a couple days with a groin injury and could merit a quick stint on the IL if it’s not resolved this weekend. Joc Pederson has an adductor strain, but the Giants are trying to keep him on the roster for now.
Existing
Clint Frazier, appendectomy, mid-May
Jose Altuve, hamstring, late-April
Teoscar Hernandez, oblique, early-May
Alex Kirilloff, wrist, late-April
Yoan Moncada, oblique, early-May
Luis Urias, quad, late-April
Fernando Tatis Jr., wrist, mid-June
Evan Longoria, finger, late-April
Kyle Lewis, knee, late-April
Lewis still hasn’t gone on a formal rehab stint. He’s playing in extended Spring Training. Moncada’s rehab begins today. Urias, Kirilloff, and Altuve are expected back early next week. Longoria’s progress has been slower than initially expected.
Returned
Jonathan India, hamstring, late-April
Ronald Acuña, knee, late-April
Mike Moustakas, biceps strain, mid-May
I read the Moustakas situation wrong. Instead of getting him a minor league tune-up, he was activated at the first opportunity. He’s even had a couple good games since then. India has also hit better since returning four games ago. Acuna recorded a hit and two steals in his 2022 debut. He also struck out twice. There might be a little rust and a few extra days of rest in the immediate future.
Power Spotlight
I relish discussing little-known players in the Spotlight so let’s talk about Braves outfielder Travis Demeritte. A former prospect, the 27-year-old Demeritte entered the season as a Quad-A slugger. The book on him hasn’t changed over the years – patient, strikeout prone, and capable of mashing mistakes over the plate. Last season was a career-year for him. At Triple-A Gwinnett, he hit .282/.363/.575 with 21 home runs and seven steals in 300 plate appearances. Even that performance didn’t put him on the fantasy radar. The Braves had no need for additional outfielders, and his 33 percent strikeout rate didn’t exactly inspire confidence he could make the leap to the Majors.
It’s still early days. This season with the Stripers, he raced out to a .283/.365/.630 start in 52 plate appearances. He hit two home runs and stole two bases. Statcast indicates he’s a 70th percentile sprinter. Most encouragingly, he cut his strikeout rate to just 23.1 percent, though small sample caveats abound. Notably, his 12.0 percent swinging strike rate was on par with past performances.
Lately, Demeritte has started three straight games for the Braves and is hitting .389/.450/.778 with two home runs through 20 plate appearances. He even led off on Friday while Acuna rested. Demeritte has put his characteristic plate discipline on display. Of 13 batted balls, two qualify as “barreled.” A total of seven have been “HardHit” per Statcast. Demeritte has a balanced batted ball profile that skews subtly to pulled contact.
My home run model believes he’ll hit 23 home runs per 650 plate appearances. However, as an unestablished player, it should be noted that he has a wide range of outcomes. A pace of around 20 home runs may be the median outcome, but there are many paths to over-30 taters for Demeritte. For now, he needs to continue to make the best of this opportunity. The Braves have exciting outfield prospects in their system who they can turn to if Demeritte proves too strikeout prone or otherwise exploitable.
