Late summer evenings are chock full of fantasy football drafts. It’s science.
As we inch closer to Week 1’s matchup between the Chiefs and Lions, home leagues everywhere are ramping up their drafts just in time for the start of the season.
You don’t have to look too far to find recommended players to select in the early rounds of your fantasy drafts. We have a few recommended players in our 2023 Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide — which can be found online or on store shelves if magazines are your thing.
A strong start to your fantasy draft can set you up for fantasy glory, but closing out your draft with the right players can raise the ceiling of any team and occasionally bail you out of a bad start.
With two of three preseason games now over, I decided to look back at some player ADP courtesy of Sleeper. I set my filters for a 12-team, full-PPR, 1QB league and will be looking at the final four rounds of a 15-round draft (no kickers or DSTs).
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, Pro-Football-Reference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Round 12
Skyy Moore, KC (138.9 ADP)
Currently, Skyy Moore is the second-highest-priced receiver in the Chiefs’ offense but is still going 46 picks after Kadarius Toney — that’s nearly four full rounds for those unwilling to do the math.
Moore’s rookie campaign was largely disappointing for fantasy managers. He managed just 22 receptions for 250 scoreless yards and never finished better than WR33 in any of his 16 games.
Fortunately, things appear to be looking up for Moore.
Last year, the hope was Moore would eventually emerge into a meaningful role for the Chiefs. Now, he’s long been projected as the team’s starting slot receiver and was on the field with the starters in each of the team’s first two preseason games. In those games, he lined up in the slot on 16-of-25 offensive snaps.
Patrick Mahomes loves to spread the ball around, and Travis Kelce remains locked in as the No. 1 target hog. With that being said, over the last two seasons, Mahomes leads all quarterbacks in slot targets to receivers (309) — which is good for 9.1 targets per game.
Any receiver seeing 9.1 targets per game in a Mahomes-led offense is alright, in my book. While some of those slot targets could be divvied up amongst multiple receivers, the ceiling for Moore, who was an early-declare from Western Michigan and had a highly-productive college resumé, remains very high.
Daniel Jones, NYG (139.3 ADP)
If you’re the kind of drafter who likes to kick the QB can down the road, it’s hard to do much better than Daniel Jones.
Jones finished 15th in passing yards (3,205) and 21st in passing touchdowns (15) last season but fully tapped into his Konami Code upside when he rushed 120 times for 708 yards and seven touchdowns. Jones’ rushing lifted him into QB1 territory, as he finished 12th in fantasy points per game (20.5). From purely a rushing standpoint, Jones’ rushing expected points (87.1) was good for fourth-most among quarterbacks, while his rushing fantasy points over expected (25.7) ranked third ahead of Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.
There’s a good chance Jones’ passing numbers will see a spike in 2023, and his rushing floor should be similar to what we saw last year. He’s currently going as the QB16 on Sleeper but has top-10 fantasy upside.
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Tyler Higbee, LAR (143.8 ADP)
Writing about Tyler Higbee has been a common theme for me as of late, so I will only touch on him a little here. But his target volume from last season can’t be ignored.
He was one of four tight ends to see 100-plus targets last season and plays on a team that will likely need to throw a lot if they hope to stay in games.
I also love Higbee as a positive touchdown regression candidate based on last year’s expected touchdown totals this season.
Round 13
Tyler Allgeier, ATL (150.5 ADP)
Despite a solid rookie season in which he rushed for 210-1035-3 (4.9 YPC), Tyler Allgeier saw his replacement drafted with the No. 8 overall pick when the Falcons selected Bijan Robinson. Somebody should have told the Falcons’ front office about how Allgeier ranked 10th in EPA per rush (0.05) and 13th in rush yards over expected (0.56) last season, but I digress.
Allgeier, in all likelihood, will lose a lot of valuable touches to Robinson, but he remains a high-end stash in an offense that is second in neutral game script rush rate (50 percent) since 2021. Over that same two-year span, the Falcons also have a negative seven percent pass rate over expected.
To put it simply, head coach Arthur Smith loves to establish the run, and he’s also hinted at riding the “hot hand” when it comes down to it.
The Falcons figure to use their running backs heavily again in 2023, making Allgeier’s 13th-round value a potential smash for fantasy purposes. He would be the default RB1 if Robinson ever misses time.
If you still doubt Allgeier’s fantasy upside this season, check out Denny Carter’s article on 11 Late-Round Running Backs to Target.
Round 14
Tank Bigsby, JAC (159.5 ADP)
If you haven’t heard, Tank Bigsby is good at football, and the Jaguars have plans to utilize him in 2023. Doug Pederson has gone as far as to suggest Bigsby is the best pass-catching back on the team, which could immediately eat into Travis Etienne’s fantasy value.
The Jaguars selected Bigsby with the No. 88 overall pick in this year’s draft after he racked up 3,351 yards from scrimmage and 25 touchdowns during his time at Auburn. Bigsby struggled at times to run behind an offensive line that ranked 94th and 91st in PFF run-blocking grades in his final two seasons but has impressed in Jaguars camp dating back to OTAs.
Like Allgeier, Bigsby should have a role as early as Week 1. Until we see how things play out, he could be difficult to trust for fantasy purposes, but he will be a factor. Also, like Allgeier, Bigsby appears to be in line for a significant workload if the running back ahead of him misses time.
Jalin Hyatt, NYG (164.8 ADP)
The Giants selected Jalin Hyatt in the third round of this year’s draft after he emerged for a historic season with the Tennessee Vols.
Hyatt entered last season as an under-the-radar player with 502 yards and four touchdowns in his first two collegiate seasons and erupted for 67-1267-15 after an injury to Cedric Tillman elevated him to the team’s No. 1 receiver. He fully burst on the scene when he posted a 6-207-5 line against Alabama, which is reportedly a good team.
Legendary Game Performance: Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt vs. Alabama
— JWP Sports / CFBAlerts (@JWPSports) June 27, 2023
- 6 receptions
- 207 yards
- 5 touchdowns pic.twitter.com/sffZxbCHbN
Hyatt saw 87.3 percent of his snaps last season come from the slot and projects as an eventual slot receiver in the NFL.
In the Giants’ first preseason game against the Lions, Hyatt saw zero snaps in the slot. In the second preseason game against the Panthers, he played 5-of-15 snaps from the slot and posted a 4-35-1 line on five targets, connecting with Tyrod Taylor on a 33-yard touchdown.
Hyatt may not start for the Giants out of the gate, but he is competing against one of the thinnest receiver rooms in the league for targets. Daniel Jones targeted the slot on 25.2 percent of his pass attempts last season and could lean heavily on Hyatt once he’s become fully immersed in the offense. At worst, he’s a long play that could serve as an eventual boom or bust start in deeper leagues.
Round 15
Jaylen Warren, PIT (171.8 ADP)
We’ll start this one off with a blind player test.
In case you’re not sure what we’re looking at here, it’s a table of Pro Football Focus efficiency metrics from last season. The table includes:
- Missed Tackles Forces Per Attempt
- Yards Per Carry
- Yards After Contact Per Attempt
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt
- Breakaway Rush %
- Targets Per Route Run
- Yards Per Reception
- Yards After Contact Per Reception
If this table is as clear to readers as I hope, then the takeaway here should be that Player B was far more efficient than Player A was last year.
Here’s who we’re working with.
Oh no.
How is it possible that Najee Harris, a current third-round pick in PPR leagues, is somehow less efficient than 15th-rounder Jaylen Warren? As difficult as it is to believe, it’s possible that Harris, a former first-round pick out of Alabama, might be worse than the UDFA who had to battle to make the team last year.
Efficiency has never been the name of the game for Harris, who has just three runs of 30-plus yards since entering the league in 2021. Warren had one run of the same distance last season despite seeing just 77 carries.
While Warren took some time to emerge last season, he did manage two top-24 weeks in the second half of the season and was targeted 29 times to Harris’ 42 from Week 5 on. Warren’s work in the passing game took a significant chunk from Harris, who caught 33 fewer passes in 2022 than he did in 2021, despite playing in the same amount of games.
From a volume standpoint, Warren was far from dominant. But a strong rookie campaign coupled with a good training camp this offseason has people abuzz. Steelers beat writer Nick Farabaugh recently had this to say of Warren:
Is Warren going to be the next Austin Ekeler? That seems unlikely. But he does appear locked in as Pittsburgh’s RB2 and has a chance to see an increased role in the passing game.
A bet on Harris is a high-priced bet on sustained volume and the Steelers riding his first-round draft capital for one more season. A bet on Warren is a cheap bet on him out-performing Harris and earning a larger role while realizing he steps into a high-value RB1 role if Harris ever misses time.
Kendre Miller, NO (174.2)
This is a short-term, high-upside play that has a chance to later return as a high-upside play as the season progress.
How does that make sense?
Well, Kendre Miller is a rookie third-rounder out of TCU who made a name for himself last season when he rushed for 234-1399-17 while also catching 16 passes for 116 yards. Miller only managed 29 receptions in college, but he’s been described as having good hands and is the presumed replacement for Alvin Kamara on third downs while Kamara serves his three-game suspension.
Love a good Jameis dime.@Jaboowins | @Saints
— NFL (@NFL) August 20, 2023
📺: #NOvsLAC on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/L9mPiySUki pic.twitter.com/x2elkPv9oE
When Kamara returns from suspension, Miller will likely be relegated to backup duties behind him and Jamaal Williams. Still, a solid three-week outing would make him a worthwhile stash if you can spare the bench spot.
Roschon Johnson, CHI (187.5 ADP)
If I’m lucky, “I’m the Roschon Johnson truther they warned you about” will be emblazoned on my headstone.
We're still early in the declare process -- it's likely not every running back pictured here comes out for the 2023 NFL Draft. However, sorting by YCO/ATT, here's a look at some RBs dynasty leaguers may care about in a few months.
— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) December 7, 2022
Roschon Johnson is 2023's Dameon Pierce FWIW. pic.twitter.com/ardXDVrium
Johnson popped in several efficiency metrics for the Texas Longhorns last season but got lost in the sauce while playing behind Bijan Robinson from 2020-2022. Had Johnson not spent three years as a backup to the best running back in the nation, it’s possible he would have seen better draft capital than the fourth-round selection he was dealt in April.
While it’s hard to love the draft capital, it’s easy to fall in love with the landing spot.
For starters, the Bears seemed hell-bent on limiting Khalil Herbert’s usage last season, despite the fact he was one of the most efficient runners on a per-touch basis. Secondly, veteran D’Onta Foreman, who turned in a solid 203-914-5 line with the Panthers last season, is entering his first year with the team in his age-27 season.
None of this is particularly damning for either back, but the Bears don’t exactly have an unquestioned feature back, either. Earlier this month, Bears beat writer Courtney Cronin said the Bears RB1 job could come down to whichever back is the best pass blocker — which Johnson has excelled at dating back to his college days.
As I write this, I am unable to forget the efficiency metrics Johnson posted in college — which pains me to say as somebody who is also a fan of Herbert. However, the team’s decision to consistently take him off the field in favor of David Montgomery — a far less efficient back — has me convinced they could easily be out on him this year. Johnson has been one of my favorite stashes all offseason and will continue to be so leading up to Week 1.
Tank Dell, HOU (190.7 ADP)
After the Texans drafted C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft, the former Buckeye had a “pound the table” moment when he requested the team draft Tank Dell in the third round.
Dell is an undersized (5'8/165) but explosive receiver who made a name for himself as a member of the Houston Cougars. In three seasons with the Cougs, Dell totaled 228 receptions for 3,155 yards and 32 touchdowns. He averaged an impressive 5.6 YAC/REC during that time and an equally solid 2.43 YPRR.
When he finally gets his chance, Dell figures to play primarily as a slot receiver. He saw 59.5 percent of his snaps come from the slot in his final two seasons at Houston. He’ll be competing with veteran Robert Woods and second-year receiver John Metchie for targets — although Metchie is essentially entering his rookie year after losing last season due to a bout with Leukemia.
Dell caught 5-of-8 targets for 65 yards and one touchdown in the Texans’ first preseason game, with 34 of his yards coming after the catch. He’ll face stiffer competition in the regular season than what he saw that night, but he looked every bit like the player we saw in college and could turn into a reliable target for Stroud at some point this season.
Honorable Mention
Evan Hull, IND (250.7 ADP)
In light of the Colts granting Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade, I want to touch briefly on Evan Hull.
There’s a good chance Hull fades to irrelevancy shortly after the preseason, but the former Northwestern running back had a strong final two seasons in college and displayed elite-level athleticism at the NFL combine.
Hull started the first preseason game for the Colts but saw Deon Jackson draw the start in the second game.
As a complete free roll at the end of drafts, I love the prospects of what Hull could provide if he lands the starting gig in Week 1 — which feels like a long shot. But his upside as a lead back in a potentially run-heavy offense could make him a worthwhile flex play if all goes well.