Four races remain in the Cup Series regular season and time is running out for the playoff hopeful drivers.
There are seven drivers within 60 points of the cutline. Bubba Wallace has put the most distance between himself and elimination by scoring stage points early at Richmond while Ty Gibbs moved to within one spot of the playoffs.
One change took place more than 100 points above the cutline. Chris Buescher won at the Virginia track and solidified his spot in the playoffs. He was more than 100 points above the cutline, but he erased any doubt that he will be one of 16 drivers competing for a championship.
The real shakeup occurred below the cutline. Gibbs moved up multiple spots while AJ Allmendinger and Daniel Suarez lost out on points.
The Bubble:
15th: Bubba Wallace (+54)
Season stats: 22 starts, six top-10 finishes and four top fives. Five DNFs. Finished 12th at Richmond but scored 16 points in the first two stages.
Best opportunity to win: Two main tracks stand out as options for Wallace – Michigan and Daytona. He finished second behind Kevin Harvick at Michigan in 2022 after winning his first career pole, and the Toyotas were strong with four in the top 10 at the Irish Hills.
Daytona stands out due to Wallace’s history as a superspeedway racer. He has a win at Talladega and four top-10 finishes at Daytona. This includes three runner-ups (2018, ’21, ’22). Wallace will just have to avoid the big one that will likely occur on the 2.5-mile track.
16th: Michael McDowell (+18)
Season stats: 22 starts, five top-10 finishes and one top five. One DNF. Finished 22nd at Richmond with no stage points.
Best opportunity to win: McDowell has multiple tracks where he could capitalize and win his way into the playoffs. Watkins Glen and Indianapolis are two examples. McDowell posted top-10 finishes at both tracks in 2022, and he has been consistently strong on road courses in the Gen 7 era.
McDowell also has past success at superspeedways. He won the 2021 Daytona 500, which was one of his eight top-10 finishes in 24 starts.
17th: Ty Gibbs (-18)
Season stats: 22 starts, six top-10 finishes and one top five. Two DNFs. Finished 15th at Richmond with three stage points.
Best opportunity to win: Gibbs achieved success at road courses in the Xfinity Series. He won at Road America, Daytona, and Watkins Glen. He has limited road course experience in Cup, but he finished ninth at both Circuit of the Americas and Chicago.
Gibbs will make his second career starts at Watkins Glen and Indianapolis after the trip to Michigan. He finished 17th at Indianapolis and 26th at Watkins Glen last season while replacing an injured Kurt Busch (concussion).
18th: AJ Allmendinger (-22)
Season stats: 22 starts, four top-10 finishes and one top five. Three DNFs. Started from the rear after missing practice and qualifying to race in Xfinity at Road America. Finished 27th.
Best opportunity to win: Allmendinger’s focus will be on the road course races. He won Kaulig Racing’s first Cup race at Indianapolis in 2021 and then he finished seventh at the track last season. He has one Cup win at Watkins Glen (2014), and he finished second behind Kyle Larson last season.
Daytona is a potential opportunity for Allmendinger. He finished sixth there in February, and he has seven career top-10 finishes in 20 career starts.
19th: Daniel Suarez (-34)
Season stats: 22 starts, six top-10 finishes and two top fives. Four DNFs. Finished 33rd at Richmond with no stage points.
Best opportunity to win: The road courses are the obvious choice for Suarez. His first career Cup win was at Sonoma Raceway last season, and he has three top five finishes in five starts.
Michigan could be an option for Suarez. He finished top five in both 2019 races while driving for Stewart-Haas. Suarez finished 25th at Michigan last season for Trackhouse Racing, but he also scored nine points in stage 2.
20th: Chase Elliott (-40)
Season stats: 15 starts, eight top-10 finishes and five top fives. Two DNFs. Finished 13th at Richmond after scoring seven points in stage 1.
Best opportunity to win: Elliott has 18 career Cup wins, so there are multiple tracks where he could break through and secure his spot in the playoffs. Watkins Glen is an obvious choice with Elliott posting four straight top-five finishes (two wins).
Michigan is another track where Elliott could contend for the win. He has top-10 finishes in 10 of his 12 Cup starts. This includes three straight runner-ups in 2016-17. His worst finish at Michigan is 20th in 2019.
21st: Alex Bowman (-42)
Season stats: 19 starts, six top-10 finishes and three top fives. One DNF. Finished 18th at Richmond with no stage points.
Best opportunity to win: Richmond was a prime opportunity for Bowman based on past success, but he finished outside the top 10 as all four Hendrick cars struggled. Now Michigan becomes his focus. He has three top-10 finishes at the two-mile track in 13 starts. He finished ninth at Michigan last season.