The UEFA Champions League league phase has just one match day to go and it’s safe to say the final day is going to be as full of drama as hoped when UEFA designed the new format.
It’s going to be an uneasy wait for Manchester City as they bid to win a second European Cup and can’t even say they control their own destiny over 90 minutes.
City lost again on Wednesday, dropping to 25th on the Champions League league phase table. Forget the top-8 finish and bye to the knockout round they were expecting, because Pep Guardiola’s men may not even get to the playoff phase.
[ MORE: UEFA Champions League table ]
The trio of Premier League teams who’ve joined City in this year’s UCL are in a lot better shape. Liverpool’s perfect record has it atop the group and through, while Arsenal would need a big loss and a calamitous, conspiratorial collection of other results to drop it below eighth.
Aston Villa are one spot outside the top eight while Manchester City need a win and a tiny bit of help to make the playoffs.
Will Manchester City be eliminated from the Champions League before the knockout rounds?
Remaining league phase match: vs Club Brugge (Jan. 29)
It’s very possible, especially given the way the four-time defending Premier League champions have played in recent weeks, but City will be heavy favorites to beat the Belgian visitors on Wednesday. A draw or loss, and City are done in Europe.
Will Liverpool complete a perfect league phase?
Remaining league phase matches: at PSV Eindhoven (Jan. 29)
Maybe, but will Arne Slot even consider prioritizing his lineup? Hosts PSV have not yet sealed a playoff spot and have a minuscule shot at a top-8 spot, while Liverpool have Bournemouth three days later in the Premier League.
Will Aston Villa get in the top eight and earn a bye?
Remaining league phase matches: vs Celtic (Jan. 29)
Maybe. The ninth-place Villans need to hold serve and beat Celtic, who could also climb about eighth by winning at Villa Park.
With No. 2 Barca meeting No. 7 Atalanta and No. 4 Inter Milan tangling with No. 10 Monaco, there’s about a 50:50 chance that a win is enough.
Is there any way Arsenal fail to stay in the top eight?
Remaining league phase matches: at Girona (Jan. 29)
The magic (top) eight-ball says, “It is decidedly so.”
There’s a tiny, almost impossible chance that a heavy Gunners loss at Girona could be joined by several other clubs winning and passing them. It’s so so so so so small, though.
Predicting the final table
Let’s guess how things will look in a week.
- Liverpool — 7-1-0 — +13 GD — 22 points
- Barcelona — 6-1-1 — +15 GD — 19 points
- Arsenal — 6-1-1 — +14 GD — 19 points
- Inter Milan — 6-1-1 — +8 GD — 19 points
- Atletico Madrid — 6-0-2 — +14 GD — 18 points
- AC Milan — 6-0-2 — +6 GD — 18 points
- Bayer Leverkusen — 5-1-2 — +7 GD — 16 points
- Aston Villa — 5-1-2 — +6 GD — 16 points
- Lille — 5-1-2 — +3 GD — 16 points
- Atalanta — 4-3-1 — +14 GD — 15 points
- Bayern Munich — 5-0-3 — +10 GD — 15 points
- Borussia Dortmund — 5-0-3 — +10 GD — 15 points
- Real Madrid — 5-0-3 — +7 GD — 15 points
- Juventus — 3-4-1 — +4 GD — 13 points
- Paris Saint-Germain — 4-1-3 — +3 GD — 13 points
- AS Monaco — 4-1-3 — +2 GD — 13 points
- Feyenoord — 4-1-3 — 0 GD — 13 points
- Brest — 4-1-3 — 0 GD — 13 points
- Benfica — 3-2-3 — +3 GD — 12 points
- PSV Eindhoven — 3-3-2 — +3 GD — 12 points
- Celtic — 3-3-2 — 0 GD — 12 points
- Manchester City — 3-1-4 — +4 GD — 11 points
- Club Brugge — 3-2-3 — -4 GD — 11 points
- Sporting Lisbon — 3-1-4 — +1 GD — 10 points
- Stuttgart — 3-1-4 — -3 GD — 10 points
- Dinamo Zagreb — 2-2-4 — -10 GD — 8 points
- Shakhtar Donetsk — 2-1-5 — -8 GD — 7 points
- RB Leipzig — 2-0-6 — -4 GD — 6 points
- Bologna — 1-2-4 — -5 GD — 5 points
- Sparta Prague — 1-1-5 — -12 GD — 4 points
- Girona — 1-0-7 — -9 GD — 3 points
- Red Star Belgrade — 1-0-7 — -11 GD — 3 points
- Sturm Graz — 1-0-7 — -12 GD — 3 points
- Red Bull Salzburg — 1-0-7 — -18 GD — 3 points
- Young Boys — 1-0-7 — -19 GD — 3 points
- Slovan Bratislava — 0-0-8 — -22 GD — 0 points
