The Phillies are out to a stunning 1-0 lead in the World Series, and they can really gain a strangle hold on this one with a victory in Game 2 on Saturday. Here’s how I’m betting this.
Philadelphia Phillies (+125) vs. Houston Astros (-145) Total: 7
I could probably wax poetic about the Phillies for 750 words, so I’ll just get the concerns I have about this one out of the way early. The sinker has been a pitch that Philly as a team has really struggled to hit all season. Framber Valdez features that pitch primarily, and he did so to much success against the Phillies in his final start of the season, where he struck out 10 across five scoreless.
Valdez has also been a hot pitcher this postseason with a 1.432 ERA, and he just made the Yankees look silly last week. So, it would seem that the Astros have a fair shot here.
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I want to remind everyone that we had this same feeling about Valdez last year. He entered the World Series with maximum confidence after slamming the door shut on the Red Sox in the ALCS just days prior. What followed was a catastrophe for the young lefty; he allowed five earned runs in each of his two World Series starts and failed to complete three innings in either.
Valdez isn’t built for this kind of spotlight. I also think the Phillies are still constructed well enough to beat him. Not only do they continue to out-hit the Astros a superior OPS, they’ve also raked against lefties this year with the sixth-best wRC+ in that split. On top of that, Valdez has been featuring his curveball rather heavily this postseason, and that is a pitch that the Phillies can hit pretty well. They were the seventh-best team this year in terms of run production this season against it. I should also mention that while the team as a whole struggled to hit sinkers, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and JT Realmuto all have good individual numbers against the pitch, which is good news.
My plan entering this series was to bet the Phillies every game aside from Game 3, when Cristian Javier takes the mound. I’m going to stick to that. I believe Zack Wheeler and his 1.78 ERA should do the job against an Astros team which still isn’t getting anything from Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. He was arguably the best pitcher in the National League for most of the year and even if he yields a couple of runs, this red-hot Phillies offense should do more than enough to support him.
Edge: Phillies +125