Vaughn Dalzell breaks down betting on Game 2 of the Pacers and Knicks series.
Pacers at Knicks (-5): O/U 218.5
The Pacers rank second in points during the first quarter (30.1), second in field goal percentage (48.8%), fourth in three-point percentage (37.5%), plus fourth in plus-minus (+3.7). Despite Indiana’s superb first-quarter numbers that trail only Boston, New York got out to a slow 27-24 lead in the first quarter of Game 1.
However, I expect the Pacers to come out aggressive in Game 2 after complaining about the refs and calls that didn’t go Indiana’s way. The Pacers seem to be lining themselves up for an aggressive response in the first 12 minutes.
Indiana led at the end of the first quarter in Games 2 and 5 at Milwaukee in the first round and I believe they can here. The Pacers have a lot more bodies and health on their side, so they can afford to run up and down the court compared to the Knicks who are playing multiple starters for 45-plus minutes.
I grabbed Indiana’s first-quarter spread of +1.5 at -110 odds and would go down to the ML for +100 or better.
Pick: Pacers 1Q +1.5 (1u)
Josh Hart 6+ Assists (+145) vs. Pacers
Isaiah Hartenstein 12+ Rebounds (+225) vs Pacers
The Knicks are down Mitchell Robinson, so the roles of Josh Hart and Isaiah Hartenstein are all that more important.
Hartenstein averaged 9.3 rebounds per game without Robinson during the regular season and 6.0 in the postseason. While Hartenstein hasn’t recorded 10 or more rebounds in the playoffs yet (9 is his high), this is a great spot for that to happen because he posted 17 rebound chances in Game 1 with only six rebounds recorded (now no Robinson).
With the Knicks already thin rotation getting thinner, Hart’s value continues to decrease for 20-plus points and a triple-double. Hart’s usage rate has been No. 2 behind Jalen Brunson for the Knicks in the postseason and Hart’s eight assists in Game 1 was expected with the up-tempo Pacers on the menu.
Hart had 11.0 assist chances in Game 1 to Brunson’s 15. I expect Hart’s rebound and assist chances to increase over the series and the odds of him recording his first postseason triple-double to continue to drop (+1900 in Game 1 to +950 in Game 2).
I grabbed Hart to record 6+ assists at +145 on FanDuel as on official play and sprinkled a triple-double at +950. For Hartenstein, I tailed Brad Thomas and played Hartenstein to grab 12-plus rebounds for +225 odds on DraftKings.
We gave out the lunch money long shot combo of Hart 8+ Assists and Haryenstein 12+ rebounds for +50 odds, which is now +2200 on DraftKings, which is tempting if you have a no-sweat bet available.
Pick: Josh Hart 6+ Assists (1u), Isaiah Hartenstein 12+ Rebounds (1u)
Season Record: 57-48 (54.2%) +5 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
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