Quarterback
Start: Jayden Daniels, Commanders
Daniels’ passing output in his debut was underwhelming and fantasy managers who started him couldn’t care less. The rookie ran 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns. He scrambled on half of his pressured dropbacks and picked up 77 yards on seven total scrambles. Daniels also led the NFL in carries inside the five with three such attempts.
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Start: Justin Fields, Steelers
Fields is the Konami Code quarterback who is still available in most leagues. He is only rostered in 15 percent of Yahoo leagues. He ran 14 times for 57 yards in Week 1. Fields was serviceable as a passer, ranking seventh in PFF passing grade, 17th in yards per attempt, and 21st in EPA per play. That was despite not scoring a single touchdown.
Justin Fields stepping up on 3rd-and-12. Nice!
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 10, 2024
George Pickens out-breaking route from trips!
Okay okay okay. Progress! pic.twitter.com/wNhZjJEbJ8
Fields was functional as a passer and that’s all we need him to be. His legs will do the rest for fantasy purposes.
Sit: Sam Darnold, Vikings
Darnold put on an incredible performance in Week 1 and immediately made me change my tune on him as a player. He’ll be a good streaming option in future weeks, but not in Week 2. Darnold faces the 49ers this week. San Francisco gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last year and beat Aaron Rodgers so badly in Week 1 that we got to see a Tyrod Taylor garbage-time touchdown. This is Darnold’s first true test as a Viking and Vegas has Minnesota with a 20.5 implied team total. That is lower than the Giants.
Sit: Kirk Cousins, Falcons
I don’t want to make any sweeping statements after one week of football, but you can cut Kirk Cousins or at least bench him in 2QB leagues. Cousins, just 10 months removed from his torn Achilles, didn’t look back to form in Week 1. He averaged six yards per attempt and was intercepted twice with just one touchdown pass. Most importantly, OC Zac Robinson called the offense like he was trying to hide Cousins.
Only 8 of 32 teams had a positive Pass Rate Over Expectation in Week 1.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 10, 2024
I don't expect that to hold, but talked about it on Solo Pod. If there's a macro pendulum swing back to running the ball, it will have impact on optimal strategy of all fantasy formats. pic.twitter.com/ILQMyJtHP4
The Falcons had the second-lowest pass rate over expected in Week 1, rivaling Arthur Smith’s Steelers. Cousins is off the QB2 menu until we see a change in his play and the offense’s run-first approach.
Running Back
Start: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
Stevenson dominated the Patriots’ backfield on all fronts. He out-carried Antonio Gibson 25-7 and saw the team’s only carry inside the five. Stevenson also ran a route on 72 percent of his team’s passing plays and caught three balls. He tied his career-high in carries and set a new career-high in touches. While the Patriots offense isn’t particularly exciting, Stevenson is seeing fantasy RB1 usage.
Start: Jordan Mason, 49ers
If you’re reading this, you probably know to start Mason if you have him (assuming Christian McCaffrey is ruled out). I simply can’t stress enough that there are roughly five running backs he shouldn’t be started over. Mason saw 78 percent of the 49ers’ rush carries and ran a route on 65 percent of Brock Purdy’s dropbacks. Mason looked the part of an RB1 too, ranking sixth in NFL Next Gen’s rush yards over expected and 10th in success rate. The 49ers are 5.5-point favorites over the Vikings this week, giving Mason plenty of opportunities to get going downhill.
Sit: Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard only saw 38 percent of Carolina’s carries in Week 1. As if that wasn’t disastrous enough, the Panthers were a trainwreck, putting up 10 points with the league’s worst EPA per play. A workhorse job wouldn’t be enough to get home in this offensive environment, let alone a committee role.
Sit: Zamir White, Raiders
Like Hubbard, White was revealed to be just one piece of a multi-back approach in Week 1. White out-carried Alexander Mattison 13-5 but the latter logged a 59 percent snap share. Mattison ran a route on 60 percent of Gardner Minshew’s dropbacks and six targets to White’s two. This was largely because the Raiders were trailing for over half of their offensive plays. The bad news is that they are massive underdogs to the Ravens this week. Expect more Mattison and very little running as they play from behind.
Wide Receiver
Start: Tank Dell, Texans
Dell didn’t get home in Week 1, scoring fewer than 10 fantasy points with just three catches for 40 yards and some rushing production. The Texans upped their 11-personnel pass rate compared to 2022, allowing Dell to run a route on 87 percent of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks. He earned a 23 percent target share and a 44 percent air yards share. There’s nothing to worry about in his usage and fantasy managers can run it back with him as a WR2.
Start: Brian Thomas Jr, Jaguars
BTJ looks like the real deal.
look at where Brian Thomas Jr. is when Trevor lets this go pic.twitter.com/aBcTmhAXs0
— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) September 9, 2024
Thomas was billed as a deep threat coming out of LSU but saw varied usage and had an aDOT of 11.8. He accounted for 21 percent of the Jags’ targets and was the recipient of Trevor Lawrence’s only throw into the end zone. Thomas also ran a route on 77 percent of Lawrence’s dropbacks and saw some reps when the team moved into 12-personnel. All the ingredients are there for BTJ to be a consistent fantasy factor throughout his rookie season.
Sit: Christian Watson, Packers
Watson’s Week 1 role was not small, but modest is a fair way to describe it. He saw 17 percent of the team’s targets and 23 percent of their air yards. Watson was, however, targeted three times in the end zone. That was every one of Jordan Love’s end zone throws. Normally, that would be a pretty good sign. For Week 2…not so much. The Packers are expected to start Malik Willis while Love nurses a knee injury. Willis entered the league in 2022 and is still searching for his first career touchdown pass. He has the second-worst sack rate and pressure-to-sack rate since entering the league. This is now an offense that is going to run the ball and struggle to score points.
Sit: Diontae Johnson, Panthers
Speaking of FCS-caliber offenses, the Panthers ranked 32nd in the NFL in EPA per play on the back of bottom-five performances through the air and on the ground. Bryce Young’s first throw of the season was a pass intended for Johnson that sailed helplessly over his head for an interception.
FIRST PLAY ON DEFENSE & IT'S A WILL HARRIS INTERCEPTION
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 8, 2024
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/CWnDwA3bu3
Johnson also failed to take over as the Panthers’ No. 1 receiver, earning a target share of 22 percent and an air yards share of 18 percent. There’s simply no fantasy value to be had in Charlotte.
Tight End
Start: Brock Bowers, Raiders
It didn’t take long, but the greatest tight end prospect of my lifetime has arrived. Bowers led the Raiders with seven targets and saw four first-read targets. He ran 63 percent of his routes from the slot. With tight end looking like a wasteland of a position, Bowers is moving up the TE1 ranks every week.
Start: Colby Parkinson, Rams
Per usual, the Rams played one tight end nearly every snap in Week 1. That player was free agent addition Colby Parkinson. The veteran ran a route on 82 percent of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks and saw five looks in the passing game. He ran the most routes of any tight end in Week 1. The Rams face the Cardinals in a game with a total that has risen two points to 48 since opening. Parkinson, running all of the routes for Stafford, is a sneaky bet to find the end zone.
Sit: Chig Okonkwo, Titans
Okonkwo got away with it in Week 1, scoring a touchdown on just two catches. He only ran a route on 55 percent of Will Levis’s dropbacks and earned a seven percent target share. This isn’t ground-breaking news, but for reference, here’s a non-exhaustive list of players you can get off the waiver wire who project for more points than Chig: Noah Fant, Jordan Akins, Greg Dulcich, Tyler Conklin, Zach Ertz, Theo Johnson
Sit: Cole Kmet, Bears
The Bears played Gerald Everett over Kmet in Week 1. Everett, who has five years of experience under Bears OC Shane Waldron, ran a route on 64 percent of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks. Kmet’s route rate was 33 percent. He can be cut in all formats.