The Dallas Cowboys may have been decimated by the flu as they took to the field in Buffalo, but no matter the reason, Dak Prescott’s no-show against the Bills combined with his issues at Philadelphia and at San Francisco rightfully have vanquished him from the MVP conversation. Where does that leave the race for the league’s top individual honor with Week 15 all but in the rear-view mirror?
San Francisco’s quarterback is a sizable favorite (-190) over the field at DraftKings. Prescott (+450) sits somehow second on the odds board followed by Jackson (+500), Philly’s Jalen Hurts (+1000), and Purdy’s teammate, Christian McCaffrey (+1200).
We noted the travails of Prescott that have doomed his candidacy. The Eagles could still claim the top seed in the NFC, but something is just not right with the Philly offense (outside of the Tush Push) and Hurts’ stats are not close to those of Purdy. The eye test also favors the Iowa State alum thanks to his dismantling of the Eagles’ defense a handful of weeks ago.
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Where does McCaffrey fit when defining San Francisco’s success? Does his ability as a dual threat out of the backfield make that offense go? McCaffrey will finish with close to 2200 combined yards and maybe 25 touchdowns. That is a monster season. If those numbers were 2500 and 30 maybe the conversation is different, but the MVP has become an award for quarterbacks.
Could a candidate emerge from further back than McCaffrey? The NFL’s MVP is typically awarded to a player from a conference’s top two seeds. The NFC top seeds look to be San Francisco and Philadelphia in some order, and we have discussed the case of Jalen Hurts.
That leaves the AFC to offer the betting public a darkhorse. Tua’s (+2500) case was exposed as fraudulent when Tyreek Hill (+2500) was injured. It is dangerous to count out Patrick Mahomes (+2200). His candidacy always seems viable, but only IF the Chiefs can right the ship. Kansas City is two back of the Ravens and a game behind the Dolphins for the one seed in the AFC. Mahomes and co. play the Raiders, Bengals, and Chargers. While Vegas historically has played KC tough, it is doubtful the Chiefs lose any of those three. It is possible they at least earn the two seed. Too many dominoes need to fall, though, to resurrect the Mahomes’ campaign.
Could Josh Allen (+1400) sneak into the conversation? The Bills will not be the top seed in the AFC but if they win out (at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins) they will finish 11-6. The Dolphins currently hold a 2-game lead in the division and hold all the tiebreakers with Buffalo. Could Miami lose out? Possible. They host Dallas, visit Baltimore, and host Buffalo. That is a brutal stretch for a team that was minus Tyreek Hill this past weekend. Even if Buffalo somehow manages to win the East, they probably do no better than the three seed because it means Baltimore will have defeated Miami and they will finish with a better record (as would KC as discussed earlier).
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That brings us to a true Christmas present for NFL fans. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens travel to Levi’s Stadium to face Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers on December 25. All signs point to the winner of that game earning the top seed in the playoffs with the winning quarterback becoming an overwhelming favorite to claim the MVP.
Enjoy the game especially if you grabbed Purdy at 50:1 or Jackson at 20:1 in the offseason.
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
