In Part I of my 2024 championship preview, I examine Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick’s records to identify strengths and potential pitfalls to watch for at Phoenix. I’ll do the same for Ryan Blaney and William Byron in Part II.
A driver reaching the NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 becomes part of an elite group of drivers. Since stage racing began in 2017, 36 different drivers have participated in the 10-race postseason competition that culminates this Sunday in Phoenix.
Only 12 drivers have experienced the high pressure of the winner-take-all championship race. Reddick will become the 13th when the green flag waves at Phoenix. In contrast to Reddick, Logano is the most experienced Championship 4 driver in the stage racing era with four appearances.
Let’s see how these two competitors measure up.
Joey Logano: Veteran driver with impeccable timing
Logano, in his 16th full Cup Series season, makes his seventh consecutive appearance in the playoffs and is back in the Championship 4 after being eliminated last year in the first round. But Logano almost didn’t make it to the Round of 8, much less the championship race.
Logano entered the playoffs ranked ninth with one race win (Nashville) and seven playoff points. In the first 26 races of the season, he had four top-five finishes (15.3%) and eight top 10s (30.8%), along with five DNFS (19.2%). It’s generally not a good sign when a driver has more DNFs than top-five finishes.
Logano’s fortune improved in the playoffs. He won Atlanta in the Round of 16, then slipped through the Round of 12 when Alex Bowman’s car was disqualified for being underweight. As if to prove he belonged, Logano won Las Vegas the very next week.
All three drivers in the Championship 4 have three wins; however, Logano arguably has the weakest overall record. After 35 races, he has only six top-five finishes (17.1%) and 12 top-10 finishes (34.2%). All three of his competitors have at least 11 top-five finishes and 17 top-10 finishes each. Logano also has the most finishes outside of the top 20 of any driver in the Championship 4: He has 15 finishes of 21st or worse in 35 races (42.8%.)
But if there’s one thing Penske drivers know, it’s that this championship format rewards when you win more than how much you win. Logano has emerged with the championship twice out of four opportunities since 2017. He won championship in 2018 and again in 2022, for a 50% win rate. He is the only multiple champion in the stage-racing era.
The location of the final race is a positive for Logano, as he’s been strong at 1-mile tracks. Richmond, Gateway and New Hampshire are the best comparable tracks for Phoenix. Logano has no DNFs at the comp tracks in the Gen-7 era, and has one win and six top-five finishes (50.0%). In the five Gen-7 races at Phoenix, Logano has one win (his championship win in 2022, where he won from the pole), and one other finish within the top 10, also in 2022.
Logano also has momentum going for him with two of his three wins this year coming in the playoffs. His average finish for the regular season was 18.3 compared with a 15.33 finish for his post-regular season races. Those aren’t the best averages, but the trend goes in the right direction.
Of concern: Logano did not perform well at Phoenix in the spring. He qualified 23rd and never rose higher than 19th before crashing on lap 203 of 301. The team also had a disastrous Homestead race two weeks ago, where they finished 28th. Homestead may have just been a consequence of the team focusing on Phoenix, but the No. 22 cannot afford to miss the setup this week. A longer practice, with time to make adjustments, will help.
Finally, Roger Penske is the only owner with two drivers in the Championship 4 and Ford is the only manufacturer with two drivers in the Championship 4. That gives them twice as much opportunity to bring home the trophy; however, the other teams and manufacturers can direct all their efforts into one car. Penske and Ford must divide their efforts between Logano and teammate Blaney.
Tyler Reddick: Rookie Championship 4 driver with plenty to prove
Tyler Reddick made the playoffs in all but one of his five full-time Cup Series seasons, but this is his first appearance in the Championship 4. Reddick’s best finish in the Cup Series was last year, ranking sixth overall. That’s especially impressive driving for a team that’s only in its fourth year of existence — and second year as a two-car team.
Reddick has three wins this year: at Talladega in the spring and at Michigan in the regular season, plus Homestead in the Round of 8. He enters Phoenix with 12 top-five finishes (34.3%), 20 top-10 finishes (57.2%) and only 10 finishes of 21st or worse. Reddick ties with Byron for the fewest DNFs this year to date: four (11.1%.)
Reddick has two top-five finishes (16.7%) and three top-10 finishes (25.0%), but no wins at the comparison tracks in the Gen-7 car. His record for Gen-7 finishes at Phoenix is better. Although he’d never won at Phoenix, he has two top-five finishes (40.0%) and three top-10 finishes (60%). Reddick finished 10th at Phoenix in the spring, higher than any of his competitors this weekend except for Blaney, who finished fifth.
Of concern: Reddick’s playoff performance hasn’t matched the level that earned him the regular-season championship. His average finish in the playoffs is 19.9, compared to an 11.2 average finish in the regular season. That gives him the lowest average finish in the playoffs out of all the Championship 4 drivers. The bonus points and playoff points he earned during the regular season won’t help him in the final race.
Part II will focus on Ryan Blaney and William Byron. Watch the championship-deciding race on NBC and Peacock with coverage starting at 2 p.m. ET on Sunday.
