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Walkthrough Week 17: Amon-Ra St. Brown Week

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Week 17 Walkthrough, outlining critical fantasy football context for this 17th, glorious week of football.

At the end of this article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used, what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from. As a heads up, I use some terms interchangeably below:

  • Routes per dropback = route rate = route % = route participation
  • Targets per route run = target rate

Byes: None

Already Played: Cowboys, Titans

Before we get started, I want to note that this will be the last full version of the Walkthrough this season. Next week I’ll have an article looking at key trends for Week 18, but it won’t be the typical game-by-game breakdown. The following week I will have a preview article for the entire playoffs as the final Walkthrough of the year.

Bears at Lions, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Bears Implied Team Total: 23

Some NFL teams don’t have clear identities. They shift their play styles based on matchups and circumstances. The Bears are not one of these teams.

Regardless of the matchup, we can count on Chicago to roll out a run-heavy game plan. The Bears and the Falcons are the only teams this season that have yet to post a positive pass rate over expected. And the Bears have peaked with a -5% PROE, which is a very run-heavy rate. And the 3-12 Bears rarely operate from a position of strength. Instead, they stubbornly implement a run-heavy approach despite game scripts that typically call for a lot of passing.

17_bears_epr.png

17_bears_epr.png

So even if the Bears are trailing in this game, we can count on them to run. And we can definitely count on the Bears to establish the run if playing from ahead.

With a strong tilt to the run, the Bears coaching staff must be delighted to be facing the Lions again this week. Detroit has been terrible at stopping opposing running games, ranking 29th in EPA allowed per rush.

17_bears_mu.png

17_bears_mu.png

But the Lions are also very weak against the pass, ranking 31st in EPA allowed per dropback and dead last in PFF’s coverage grades. Justin Fields is unlikely to have a ton of dropbacks this week, but he should be efficient when he does pass the ball. That’s what we saw the first time he played the Lions, with Fields averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.

But in terms of Fields’ fantasy value, the passing game isn’t the main attraction. Fields rushed for 147 yards and two TDs the last time he played the Lions. And the Bears are very likely to lean on his legs again this week, setting him up for a highly efficient day as both a passer and rusher.

David Montgomery also looks worth trusting this week. With Khalil Herbert back in the lineup against the Bills, Montgomery played 68% of snaps and saw 20 touches. Herbert’s presence hurt a bit. The second-year back logged eight touches, despite playing on only 40% of snaps. However, this matchup will likely create quite a few backfield opportunities, and Montgomery looks to have a clear lead over Herbert.

Montgomery should also benefit from the fact that the Bears should be moving the ball effectively through the air. He ranks RB15 in yards per route run, showing solid efficiency as a receiver. Montgomery could be a big beneficiary if the Bears are less dramatic about establishing the run against a defense that can’t stop the run or the pass.

17_bears_monty.png

17_bears_monty.png

But hopefully, the Bears will stick relatively close to their usual game plan because outside of Fields and Montgomery, we really don’t have any fantasy options in this offense. Cole Kmet continues to run a lot of routes, with a 88% route rate last week, but he’s not delivering much value on that opportunity.

And the frustrating thing about Kmet is that he doesn’t appear to be a feature of the Bears’ passing game plan. Kmet’s target competition is about as weak as it gets. Over the last two weeks, Byron Pringle and Dante Pettis have operated as the Bears’ top two wide receivers. Yet Kmet has failed to draw first-read targets at a high rate. Kmet has seen a first-read target on only 9% of his routes, which ranks 30th percentile among tight ends. That indicates that the Bears may not view him as a superior receiving option to their journeyman wide receivers. Kmet runs a ton of routes, and the Lions are bad enough on defense to allow him to break off a few big plays. But he is more of a dart throw than he really should be.

17_bears_kmet.png

17_bears_kmet.png

Lions Implied Team Total: 29

Last week, I emphasized that the Lions are fundamentally a run-first team that tries to hide Goff whenever possible. However, hiding Goff was impossible against a Panthers team that ran all over the Lions last week. And although the Lions would prefer to limit passing volume, they are also not deathly allergic to high-volume passing environments. If forced into a passing script, the Lions will generally play to win, even if it means pivoting off their preferred style of play. Last week, they posted a 4% PROE in comeback mode.

17_lions_epr_w.png

17_lions_epr_w.png

If the Lions are as bad at stopping the run this week as they were against the Panthers, it will be a huge problem. After all, the Bears clearly prefer a ground-and-pound approach. And if the Bears put up points against them, the Lions could be pass-heavy again. However, as they showed in their first matchup with Chicago, when they posted a -5% PROE, the Lions would prefer to run the ball against this defense.

And as long as this game is relatively close, the Lions should have no trouble moving the ball on the ground. The Bears rank 28th in EPA allowed per rush and are one of the worst run defenses in the league.

17_lions_mu.png

17_lions_mu.png

And when the Lions call dropbacks for Goff, he should be efficient against a defense that ranks dead last in EPA allowed per dropback. The Bears’ defense is an ideal opponent for the Lions, who rely on a limited but efficient passing attack.

And Goff should be plenty capable of delivering efficiently against this defense. Goff is having an impressive season, ranking eighth in EPA per game and 14th in success rate.

17_lions_epa_per_game.png

17_lions_epa_per_game.png

Goff has been slightly more inconsistent than Kirk Cousins, but he’s also shown a higher ceiling. And like Cousins, we primarily care about whether he can support his No. 1 receiver. And this matchup sets up very well for Amon-Ra St. Brown, who continues to be the engine of the Lions’ passing attack. St. Brown’s target volume is extremely reliable. He’s seen a target on 29% of his routes, the second-highest rate in the league behind only Tyreek Hill.

17_lions_st._brown.png

17_lions_st._brown.png

Unfortunately, St. Brown sees his targets at much shallower depths than Hill. St. Brown’s 6.5 aDOT ranks just 7th percentile among wide receivers. That makes things more fragile for St. Brown than for other high-end receivers. If the Lions’ offense is struggling, he’s a bad bet to save his day with a couple of big plays.

However, we can expect the Lions to effectively move the chains this week. And St. Brown is a lock to be heavily involved in the passing game. His 21% first read target rate ranks 96th percentile. With the Lions’ offense set up for a strong outing, St. Brown is as good a fantasy play as you’ll find this week.

D.J. Chark continues to look like the secondary option in Detroit. He ran a route on 83% of dropbacks against the Panthers, in line with his 84% route rate in Week 15. Jameson Williams seems unlikely to see even a part-time role this season; he has route rates of 17%, 16%, and 17% over the last three weeks. That keeps Chark in place as the Lions clear deep threat. In this game environment, his middling per-route target volume could pay off.

17_lions_yprr.png

17_lions_yprr.png

Even after Shane Zylstra scored three TDs against the Panthers, the Lions’ tight end situation still looks murky. Zylstra ran a route on only 48% of dropbacks last week and still looks like a rotational player. Brock Wright saw 24% route participation, with James Mitchell at 22%. The three-way committee at tight end makes Zylstra very difficult to trust.

The Lions’ backfield also remains unreliable. D’Andre Swift led the backfield in Week 16 with a 56% snap share. That was his second time in the last three weeks with a 50%+ snap share, so you could argue that things are moving in the right direction. However, Swift benefited from negative game script against the Panthers, which helped keep Jamaal Williams to just a 24% snap share. And unfortunately, Justin Jackson retained a valuable role in the offense, with a 21% snap share. As part of a three-man committee, Swift’s playing time looks capped at around a 60% snap share, making him a volatile PPR option.

Broncos at Chiefs, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Broncos Implied Team Total: 16.25

After getting blown out by the Rams, Nathaniel Hackett is out of a job. And it’s fitting that his last game was a run-heavy showing against one of the best run defenses in football. Despite going down 17 points in the first quarter and eventually trailing by 35 points with the starters still in the game, the Broncos posted a -10% PROE. There’s a name for going ultra-run-heavy when getting blown out... giving up.

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17_broncos_proe_w.png

Hackett is being replaced by him his former assistant Jerry Rosburg. Rosburg has no head coaching experience, so it’s hard to say how he’ll change things. But obviously, expectations cannot be high for this offense. After a rough outing against the Rams, Russell Wilson now ranks behind Cooper Rush, Taylor Heinicke, and Kenny Pickett in EPA per game. He’s playing backup-level football with a $124 million cap hit.

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17_broncos_epa.png

The Broncos are now going against a Chiefs defense that is solid against the pass, ranking 18th in EPA allowed per dropback and 12th in dropback success rate. But, more importantly, the Chiefs can be expected to put up points against a Broncos defense that just got lit up by Baker Mayfield.

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17_broncos_mu.png

And when the Broncos played the Chiefs in Week 14, they played aggressively, posting their second-highest PROE of the season with a highly aggressive 20% PROE on 1st-and-10.

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17_broncos_proe_trend.png

The Broncos were competitive in Week 14, so they may stick with a similar game plan this week. But it’s just as likely that the Broncos will pivot to the run and try to limit overall play volume. At this point, Denver’s goal is to end the season in the least embarrassing way possible.

Still, it’s not the worst spot for Broncos receivers. Even if Denver goes with a conservative ball-control game plan, Patrick Mahomes will force them off that eventually. With that in mind, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton both look playable.

Jeudy led the Broncos with 95% route participation last week, but Sutton actually saw seven first-read targets to Jeudy’s six. He remains a crucial part of the Broncos’ offense, and Sutton’s route rate could be up from last week’s 88% in his second game back. And with Greg Dulcich likely to miss this game with a hamstring injury, targets could be highly condensed. Both wide receivers look like WR3s.

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17_broncos_yprr.png

But even with the potential for the Broncos to go ultra-conservative this week, Latavius Murray can’t be in lineups. He saw a 46% snap share against the Rams and was at 53% in Week 14 against the Chiefs. In run-heavy scripts, he’s likely to cede snaps to Marlon Mack. And in a blowout script, we could see Chase Edmonds again.

Chiefs Implied Team Total: 28.75

When the Chiefs played the Broncos in Week 14, they didn’t mess around. Despite the Broncos having a strong pass defense, the Chiefs play to their own strengths, posting a 14% PROE and an 18% PROE on 1st-and-10. The Chiefs aren’t opposed to playing balanced against a bad run defense. But a strong pass defense will not scare them off their primary game plan—to dictate pass-heavy game scripts to their opponents.

17_chiefs_epr.png

17_chiefs_epr.png

And sure, the Broncos have a strong pass defense; they rank fourth in EPA allowed per dropback and first in dropback success rate. But the Chiefs have the best passing offense in the league, ranking first in EPA per dropback and first in dropback success rate.

17_chiefs_mu.png

17_chiefs_mu.png

The Chiefs should play to their strengths here. And frankly, it’s hard to believe that the Chiefs will be afraid of the Broncos after they just let Baker Mayfield do this.

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17_chiefs_mayfield.png

And with the Chiefs likely to be aggressive this week, Patrick Mahomes has an extremely high ceiling. Mahomes’ combination of efficiency and volume is truly on a different level this season. It’s one thing to say that he ranks first in EPA per game, but that undersells how much better he’s been than the competition.

17_chiefs_epa_per_game.png

17_chiefs_epa_per_game.png

With Mahomes having a runaway MVP season, you would think we’d have a few strong fantasy options in the Chiefs’ receiving game. But week after week, Travis Kelce is the only exciting option. That remains the case this week, with Kelce coming off a 31% target share and 47% air yard share against the Seahawks. His profile is pristine.

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17_chiefs_kelce.png

Unfortunately, behind Kelce, things remain rough. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a very safe bet to run routes. He’s been at 86%+ route participation in three straight weeks. However, his target volume is pretty frustrating. Smith-Schuster is coming off a game with just a 0.8 aDOT and a 2% air yard share. This highlights an ongoing problem for Smith-Schuster. He has an unimpressive 19% target rate... and he’s pairing that with a shallow 7.0 aDOT. Because each of Smith-Schuster’s targets isn’t worth all that much, he needs a lot of them to pay off in a given week. And with Kelce as the clear engine of the offense, Smith-Schuster’s target upside is somewhat capped. He profiles as a low-end WR2.

17_chiefs_yprr.png

17_chiefs_yprr.png

Things get even worse behind Smith-Schuster. Justin Watson appears to have passed Marquez Valdes-Scantling, logging 71% route participation to MVS’ 55% against the Seahawks. Given how poorly Valdes-Scantling has played this season, that’s not a surprise. But Watson’s 1.19 expected YPRR makes him a weak dart throw option, especially with Kadarius Toney up to 29% route participation last week and Skyy Moore (19%) still having an ancillary role. So it wouldn’t be all surprising for Watson to drop to around 50% route participation this week, especially if Mecole Hardman returns.

But Jerick McKinnon is functionally the third receiving option in this offense. McKinnon logged 47% of snaps against the Seahawks, which was his lowest mark since Week 13. But if the Chiefs play aggressively against the Broncos, McKinnon should benefit. He posted a 57% snap share in Week 14 and has flashed RB1 upside when the Chiefs lean into the pass.

Dolphins at Patriots, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Dolphins Implied Team Total: 19.25

With Tua Tagovailoa in the concussion protocol, we can expect to see Teddy Bridgewater under center in New England. We have a small sample on Bridgewater this season, but as you would expect, he has been significantly less efficient than Tagovailoa. After flashing elite efficiency to begin the season, Tagovailoa has settled into my preseason upside comp—a more accurate Jimmy Garoppolo.

17_dolphins_epa.png

17_dolphins_epa.png

Bridgewater also brings accuracy to the table, ranking just ahead of Tagovailoa in CPOE. But his efficiency has been far worse. And it’s hard to be hopeful for positive regression with defenses focusing on taking away middle-of-the-field throws. But at least we won’t have Skylar Thompson out there.

The Dolphins’ love of throwing over the middle appears to be under attack. From Weeks 1-12, Tagovailoa led the NFL in attempts over the middle of the field, traveling 10+ air yards. And he was highly efficient on those throws, ranking second in PFF’s quarterback grades.

However, Tagovailoa has fallen to 31st in PFF’s quarterback grades over the last three weeks on downfield-middle throws. Defenses appear to have caught on the Dolphins’ game plan.

Then again, we must remember the game we are playing here. We are fantasy GMs... not the real thing. Defenses are catching on to what the Dolphins are looking to do, but for our purposes in fantasy championship week, the question is: how much will that affect Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

From Weeks 1-12, Waddle led the NFL with 512 yards on downfield-middle throws, with Hill finishing second with 437 yards. Gabriel Davis (348) was a tier down in third place, with a massive gap down to Brandon Aiyuk (208) in fourth. Over that stretch, the Dolphins were powering something very special for their top two receivers.

And over the last four weeks... things haven’t dramatically changed. Tyreek Hill leads the NFL with 164 yards on downfield-middle throws, and Waddle is sixth (99). Sure, 84 of Waddle’s yards came on one long catch and run against the Packers. But that is partly why we’re so focused on the Dolphins over the middle passing in the first place—it creates opportunities for big plays. Defenses catching on to the Dolphins’ preferred routes is not good. It will likely hurt Bridgewater’s efficiency and make Hill and Waddle more volatile. Still, we’re talking about a highly condensed offense that force-feeds high-value targets to two wide receivers with elite speed. Until the Dolphins stop leading the league in over-the-middle throws, Hill and Waddle can still be trusted as high-end fantasy options.

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17_dolphins_comp.png

And there’s no need to be overly worried about Bill Belichick attempting to take away Hill and Waddle as the Dolphins clear top options. Defenses have been trying to do that all season, and it hasn’t worked. Hill ranks 97th percentile in double coverage rate, with Waddle 95th. Of course, both players need to be downgraded with Tagovailoa out of the lineup and against a Patriots defense that ranks first in EPA allowed per dropback and second in dropback success rate. It’s not an ideal matchup to be catching passes from a backup quarterback.

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17_dolphins_mu.png

With that in mind, we could see less passing volume from the Dolphins than usual. The Dolphins shifted to the run against the Packers last week, with a -5% PROE. And the Dolphins have been open to going run first as needed this season. They have posted a -2% PROE or lower in four games. So Hill and Waddle could be dealing with a downgrade in passing efficiency and volume this week, but both should still be in lineups.

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17_dolphins_proe_trend.png

Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert look mildly interesting, with the potential for additional rushing attempts this week. Wilson led the backfield with 60% of snaps to Mostert’s 52%. But both backs saw 10 touches and are in play as TD dart throws.

Patriots Implied Team Total: 21.75

Mac Jones has been screaming at his coaches for weeks to open up the passing game. And this week... they might actually do it. After the run-first Packers went pass-heavy against the Dolphins last week, they now rate as the biggest pass funnel in the league. Teams are averaging a 4% PROE against them and shifting 4% to the pass; they’ve slightly edged out the Cardinals as the league’s biggest pass funnel.

And the Patriots have shown an occasional willingness to air it out. They’ve posted a positive PROE in a third of their games this season, including last week.

17_pats_proe_trend.png

17_pats_proe_trend.png

And it’s easy to understand why teams are attacking the Dolphins through the air. They rank 27th in EPA allowed per dropback and 26th in dropback success rate. Meanwhile, they are fairly effective on the ground, ranking 13th in EPA allowed per rush and seventh in rushing success rate. The Dolphins profile is a less extreme version of the Titans, who have an elite run defense and a weak secondary. But while Miami’s disparity between their run defense and pass defense is narrower, they rate even worse against the pass than Tennessee.

17_pats_mu.png

17_pats_mu.png

Jakobi Meyers just posted one of the flukiest TD catches you’ll ever see. Mac Jones tossed up a prayer on 3rd-and-29 that bounced off of reserve TE Scotty Washington‘s hands and into Meyers’. And even with that 48-yard play, Meyers totaled just 83 yards. But still, if the Patriots lean into this pass funnel matchup, Meyers figures to be the main beneficiary.

Meyers ran a route on 100% of dropbacks against the Bengals and has delivered a very impressive 2.05 YPRR this season. With a first-read target on a team-leading 17% of his routes, Meyers is the clear focal point of the Patriots’ passing attack. He profiles as a WR3.

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17_patriots_meyers.png

Things get much murkier after that. Tyquan Thornton logged 92% route participation last week and was at 97% in Weeks 14 and 15. He’s a lock to be out there running routes. However, he is struggling to draw targets. His 1.22 expected YPRR is thoroughly unimpressive. But given the matchup, it’s worth noting that Thornton’s 5.1 YPT is 4.5 yards lower than expected. Per-target efficiency isn’t sticky, so there’s no reason to assume he will continue being highly inefficient when targeted, especially in this juicy matchup. Thornton is a safe bet for routes and operates downfield with a 13.7 aDOT. He’s not a crazy dart throw.

17_pats_yprr.png

17_pats_yprr.png

Kendrick Bourne came back to life against the Bengals, but he logged just 59% route participation. It’s unclear why he isn’t getting more chances, but he cannot be relied upon as a part-time player.

Damien Harris missed practice Thursday with a personal issue. It’s hard not to wonder if the issue is related to his continued presence at practice without any action on game day. If Harris returns, he will likely eat into Rhamondre Stevenson‘s workload, but the second-year back should still operate as the clear-cut starter. And if Harris misses the game, Stevenson can be expected to play nearly every snap. He saw a 91% snap share against the Bengals, his second time in four weeks playing 90%+ snaps.

Whether or not Harris returns, this is a strong setup for Stevenson. Stevenson has been an effective rusher this season, ranking RB16 in NFL Next Gen’s rush yards over expected / attempt, but a lot of his value comes from a very strong role in the passing game. Stevenson ranks RB4 in target share and has elite upside if the Patriots aggressively attack this matchup.

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17_pats_rhamondre_stevenson.png

Colts at Giants, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Colts Implied Team Total: 16.75

Somehow, Nick Foles will be starting again this week. Foles finished dead last in EPA per play last week. And he was significantly worse than Zach Wilson, Malik Willis, and Trace McSorley... who will all be on the bench this week.

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17_colts_epa.png

Foles could rebound a bit against a Giants defense that ranks just 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback. However, even if Foles’ play improves, it will likely be on low volume. The Colts are guaranteed to attack the Giants on the ground, given that they rank just 30th in EPA allowed per rush.

17_colts_mu.png

17_colts_mu.png

Since Jeff Saturday took over in Week 10, the Colts have been pass-first just once... and that was in last week’s disastrous offensive effort. So there’s no way they won’t be looking to establish the run this week.

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17_colts_proe_trend.png

Unfortunately, the Colts’ running game doesn’t look very interesting for fantasy. Zack Moss has taken over the Indianapolis backfield. He had a 67% snap share in Week 15 and played on 69% of snaps last week. But Moss has seen just two total targets over the last two weeks. Deon Jackson has managed four targets with just 32% and 15% snap shares. If he were the clear lead back, he would be an interesting PPR option. As is, Moss is the Colts’ version of Latavius Murray.

And the combination of a run-heavy game plan and Foles at quarterback is terrible news for the Colts receivers. Moreover, with the Giants likely to play conservatively on the other side of this game, there is little hope of the Colts being forced into negative game script. So this is a bad week to roll out ancillary Colts receivers.

But because Michael Pittman will be out there for every single route, he remains on the fantasy radar. Pittman has been a very unremarkable No. 1 option this season. Despite a 27% target share, defenses aren’t even concerned about taking him away; he ranks just 30th percentile in double coverage rate. And Pittman is not punishing defenses for their lack of respect. His 1.50 YPRR is thoroughly mediocre. But Pittman ranks 99th percentile in route participation. He may be an uninspiring No. 1 option, but he’s a safe bet for a solid target share.

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17_colts_pittman.png

Giants Implied Team Total: 22.25

The Giants have been a run-heavy team with a -5% PROE and a -4% PROE on 1st-and-10. But they have pivoted to the pass over the last two weeks. They posted an aggressive 13% PROE on first down against the Commanders and were even more pass-heavy against the Vikings last week.

17_giants_proe_trend.png

17_giants_proe_trend.png

For much of the season, the Giants have seemed intent on hiding Daniel Jones, but maybe they’ve gotten more comfortable letting Jones pass it. And although the Giants are unlikely to be genuinely pass-heavy again this week, they may not feel the need to hide Jones against a Colts defense that has struggled to pressure opposing passers. The Colts rank just 29th in PFF’s pass rush grades and 28th in quick pressure rate. That is helpful because the Giants have struggled to protect Jones, ranking 25th in quick pressures allowed per dropback.

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17_giants_mu.png

And Jones really hasn’t been that bad. He ranks 17th in EPA per play, ahead of Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers. Jones hasn’t been great by any means, but if the Giants were more aggressive on offense, we’d be somewhat impressed by what Jones has been able to do this year.

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17_giants_epa.png

But it’s also hard to get excited about the Giants’ passing game because their targets are spread out. Darius Slayton has emerged as the top receiver but is coming off just a 16% target share against the Vikings. And while Slayton has an impressive 1.90 YPRR, his underlying target volume isn’t anything special. Slayton logged 98% route participation against the Vikings and is the best option, but he profiles as a volatile FLEX.

17_giants_yprr.png

17_giants_yprr.png

That leaves Saquon Barkley as the only exciting play in the offense. But at least Barkley is a legitimately elite option. Barkley is a boom/bust runner, but he’s delivering long runs at an impressive rate, ranking RB5 in breakaway yards per game. And Barkley pairs big-play ability with an elite workload. He ranks RB1 in snap share, RB6 in team attempt share, and RB5 in target share. It’s always difficult to predict if Barkley will rip off a big play in a given week... but he’ll have his chances.

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17_giants_barkley.png

Saints at Eagles, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Saints Implied Team Total: 17.75

The bad weather in Cleveland may have been slightly overblown last week, but not according to the Saints. They posted a -31% PROE, the second lowest of the entire season. The Titans -36% PROE in Malik Willis’ first start is the only time a team has been more run-heavy.

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17_saints_proe_w.png

The Saints will ease off the run-based this week... but maybe not that much. The Eagles are much weaker against the run than the pass. They rank third in EPA allowed per dropback but just 22nd in EPA allowed per rush. So the Saints can be expected to attack on the ground for as long as they can get away with it.

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17_saints_mu.png

But for fantasy purposes, the hope is that the Saints are pushed to the air in this game. Against the Browns, Alvin Kamara saw 20 carries for 76 rushing yards and a TD. But he ceded nine carries to Taysom Hill, seven to David Johnson, and two to FB David Prentice. Kamara is unlikely to see a huge rushing workload even if the Saints go run-heavy. And Kamara has not been impressive as a rusher this season. Instead, his receiving ability is what makes him special.

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17_saints_kamara.png

Kamara ranks RB3 in route participation, RB3 in target share, and RB3 in YPRR. If the Eagles can force the Saints into negative game script, it will be very beneficial for Kamara’s PPR upside.

Kamara’s passing game role will be particularly exciting if Chris Olave‘s hamstring keeps him out again this week. Without Olave and Jarvis Landry, the Saints had to lean on deep threat Rashid Shaheed in heavy wind. That didn’t go great, with Shaheed producing just 41 yards despite a 36% target share. But Shaheed should be able to draw deep coverage in less windy conditions, and at the very least, that will open up underneath targets for Kamara. Shaheed has actually been more efficient on his routes than Chris Olave. But he’s getting there on mediocre target volume, whereas Olave has actually underperformed his elite target opportunity. They may look similar in YPRR, but Shaheed is a far thinner bet than Olave.

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17_saints_yprr.png

Eagles Implied Team Total: 24.25

Although the Eagles haven’t yet ruled out Jalen Hurts this week, it seems more likely than not that Gardner Minshew will start against the Saints. Minshew has only logged a small sample of 49 plays this season, but his play has been pretty impressive.

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17_eagles_epa.png

Minshew’s efficiency is largely small sample size noise, which Sam Darnold‘s presence on the chart above is a helpful reminder of. But it’s still promising that Minshew has played so well, especially since he logged most of his plays against a formidable Cowboys defense.

But while the Eagles passing game remained very productive with Hurts out of the lineup, it could have been a different story if the Eagles weren’t pushed into negative game script by the Cowboys offense. Because... the Eagles played conservatively, with a -7% PROE and a -4% PROE on 1st-and-10. They were passing the ball because they had to.

17_eagles_epr.png

17_eagles_epr.png

The Eagles are far less likely to be pushed to the air this week. Not only are the Saints a far less potent offense than the Cowboys, but they play much more conservatively. As a result, they are a very strong bet to go run-heavy against a vulnerable Eagles run defense. So even if Hurts suits up, we’ll likely see limited volume in the Eagles’ passing game.

Fortunately, the Philadelphia passing game is highly concentrated.

And it’s not just that A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the clear top two options in the passing game. They are also consistently the top targets every week. Brown and Smith have finished top two in team target share in seven straight weeks. Even with Dallas Goedert back in the lineup, they continued to dominate targets, with Smith seeing a 36% target share and Brown at 21%.

And even if passing volume is limited, the Eagles could hit big plays downfield against this defense. Critically, the Saints have a very weak pass rush. They rank just 26th in PFF’s pass rush grades and 31st in quick pressure rate. This will make things much easier for the Eagles, who have struggled with allowing quick pressure this season.

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If the Eagles are attacking downfield, A.J. Brown is one of the best ceiling bets in fantasy. Brown is a downfield threat with a 12.6 aDOT. And he gets open; he is tied with Tyler Lockett for the NFL lead in ESPN’s open score. He also sees a much higher percentage of his targets in the deep-middle part of the field than Smith, contributing to his higher ceiling.

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However, Smith remains a solid bet as well. He has an impressive 1.94 YPRR and gets open at a high rate. Even if Hurts doesn’t play this week, Smith profiles as a WR2.

Dallas Goedert is harder to trust. He has a 1.27 expected YPRR that isn’t actually very strong. We haven’t felt that because Goedert has been extremely efficient when targeted, but that isn’t sustainable. Goedert still profiles as a TE1, but this is a riskier week to bet on him, with the potential for target volume to be low.

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17_eagles_yprr.png

Miles Sanders also looks like a risky B.T. Sanders has shown a very high ceiling this year, and the Eagles have the potential to shift to the run in a big way, which would set Sanders up for a spike week. However, he lost valuable work to Kenneth Gainwell last week, including four straight red zone carries. And when Gainwell was stopped at the 1-yard line, Minshew punched in the score. Sanders does not have a well-rounded fantasy profile; he cannot afford to lose that kind of work. Still, if you’re rotating Sanders in and out of your starting lineup, this is one of the matchups you were waiting for.

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17_eagles_sanders.png

Panthers at Buccaneers, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Panthers Implied Team Total: 18.75

Since Steve Wilks took over the Panthers in Week 6, he has transformed their offensive identity. The Panthers were pass-first under Matt Rhule but are now one of the most reliably run-heavy teams in the entire league.

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17_panthers_proe.png

It’s hard to argue with the results. The Panthers were a laughingstock earlier in the season; they now control their own playoff destiny. And against the Buccaneers, the Panthers have no reason to pivot from what’s working. Tampa Bay has been solid against the pass, ranking seventh in EPA allowed per dropback. But they are much more vulnerable on the ground, ranking 19th in EPA allowed per rush.

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17_panthers_mu.png

I had a hard time parsing the Panthers’ backfield for Week 16. And that makes sense, given that the answer to D’Onta Foreman vs. Chuba Hubbard turned out to be... both. Foreman rushed 21 times for 165 yards and a TD, with Hubbard rushing 12 times for 125 yards. But Hubbard actually led the backfield with a 46% snap share to Foreman’s 44%. If the Panthers dominate the Buccaneers as badly as they did the Lions, Foreman is a good bet to lead the backfield in touches. However, Hubbard’s playing time looks safer. If the Buccaneers play from ahead, Hubbard is a better bet to be involved as the favored passing down back.

And if the Panthers are forced into negative game script, it will be interesting to see if Sam Darnold can continue his impressive stretch of play. Darnold has been shockingly efficient this season. Of course, we still have a small sample of 111 plays... but Darnold ranks behind only Patrick Mahomes in EPA per play and leads the NFL in CPOE.

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Darnold is still Darnold... but the Panthers’ quarterback play was so bad to begin the season that Darnold can regress massively and still give his receivers a far better chance of fantasy relevance than they had earlier in the year. Unfortunately, D.J. Moore and company are unlikely to produce strong fantasy outings unless the Buccaneers can push the Panthers off their preferred game plan—which is a big ask.

Moore saw only six targets against the Lions... and that was in a game where he dominated receiving volume with a 30% target share and a 61% air yard share. He’s essentially the Panthers’ version of Drake London.

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17_panthers_comp.png

Moore operates as a downfield threat, with a 13.3 aDOT, while London is an intermediate receiver. And Moore is having more trouble getting open despite seeing double coverage at a similar rate. So it’s not a perfect stylistic comp. But for both receivers, we can feel confident they will have a high target share. And for both receivers... that still might not lead to a ton of fantasy production. So if you’re counting on D.J. Moore in the FLEX, you’re betting on Tom Brady to get things going this week.

Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 21.75

I’ve been pretty hard on Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich in recent weeks, hammering the fact that they’ve been setting Tom Brady up to fail with a high rate of first down runs. But the Buccaneers were a little less conservative against the Cardinals last week, which makes sense given that Arizona is a massive pass funnel.

The Buccaneers didn’t exactly go nuts with a 2% PROE, but they were aggressive on first down at least, with a 5% PROE. And the Buccaneers weren’t forced to the air by the Cardinals. Instead, they were pass-first in a game script where they could have rationalized going run-heavy.

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17_bucs_epr_w.png

And in defense of Bowles and Leftwich, it’s not like Tom Brady stepped up with a pass-first game plan. He finished just 17th in EPA per play and was concerningly inaccurate, ranking 26th in CPOE. And Brady’s accuracy has been a concern all season; he ranks just in 20th CPOE. He’s also been disappointingly inefficient, ranking 22nd in EPA per play.

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17_bucs_epa.png

Even still, the Buccaneers will be better off if they prioritize the pass. Their rushing game ranks dead last in EPA per rush. And the Panthers are slightly better at defending the run than the pass. They rank just 21st in EPA allowed per dropback. The Buccaneers are likely to be balanced this week, but their best chance for success is to lean on their mediocre passing game.

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17_bucs_mu.png

Some of Brady’s struggles this year are because his receivers are not getting open. Chris Godwin, in particular, has struggled. He ranks in just the 14th percentile in ESPN’s open score and is probably not fully back from his ACL tear. Godwin’s inability to shed coverage is especially concerning because he’s running shallow routes. His 6.0 aDOT would be shallow for a tight end; it ranks just fourth percentile among wide receivers.

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17_bucs_comp.png

Mike Evans has continued to operate as a deep threat, with a 13.7 aDOT. However, he has also struggled to get open, with a 47th percentile open score. Things aren’t quite as dire with Evans, but Godwin has typically been the engine of the Buccaneers’ passing game, with Evans operating as a big-play counterpart. Evans still provides that element to a degree but as part of a much less potent overall attack. Both receivers look like low-end WR2s in a matchup that could devolve into a slog.

This isn’t an ideal game environment to play ancillary Bucs, but I will note that Russell Gage played ahead of Julio Jones against the Cardinals, with a 63% route rate. It was Gage’s second straight week with 60%+ route participation. So he would be the No. 3 wide receiver dart throw.

Cade Otton also logged 83% route participation, with Cameron Brate active. But Otton and Gage have not been efficient this season, so it’s best to avoid them if possible.

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17_bucs_yprr.png

The Buccaneers running backs rotated series against the Cardinals, but Leonard Fournette still managed to rack up a big lead in snap share, as his drives lasted far longer than Rachaad White‘s. Fournette saw 60% of snaps, with White at 36%. Fournette was also the back the Buccaneers played in overtime, so it seems clear he has a lead on the rookie. However, Fournette still looks unlikely to have a clear lead-back snap share this week. He’s more likely to fall below a 60% snap share again.

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17_bucs_lenny.png

And on a split workload, neither Bucs running back looks all that interesting. Fournette has been a solid receiver but unimpressive as a rusher. That’s not ideal given that the Buccaneers refuse to aggressively prioritize the pass.

It’s a similar story for Rachaad White. But the rookie is flashing even less than Fournette. He’s likely to see enough snaps to significantly curtail Fournette’s fantasy value. Still, if you can avoid it, White should not be in championship lineups.

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17_bucs_white.png

Browns at Commanders, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Browns Implied Team Total: 19

It’s kind of crazy how bad Deshaun Watson has been this season. Jacoby Brissett finished 12th in EPA per play and fifth in CPOE in this same offense. But Watson has been a massive drop-off from the journeyman quarterback; he ranks 38th in EPA per play and 37th in CPOE.

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17_browns_epa.png

But in the two games before last week’s wind game against the Saints, the Browns were trending toward opening up the passing game. In Week 15, they posted a 2% PROE and a 14% PROE on 1st-and-10, by far their most aggressive showing on first down this season.

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17_browns_proe_trend.png

They got away from that in a big way against the Saints, but there were some extenuating weather circumstances. The Browns could get back to a pass-first approach this week against a defense that has been very strong against the run.

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The Commanders are a balanced defense; they rank eighth in EPA allowed per rush and 10th in EPA allowed per dropback. So there’s no reason for the Browns to get carried away with the passing game. But given how run-heavy they were against the Saints, we should still see a huge shift to the pass from last week.

And while this is definitely a difficult matchup, Amari Cooper looks like a solid WR2 play. Cooper has an impressive 1.99 YPRR, but his efficiency is far lower than expected based on his target volume. If Watson recaptures his elite form, Cooper stands to benefit the most. With a 27% target share and a 38% air yard share, Cooper’s 0.67 WOPR ranks 93rd percentile; he is seeing a massive slice of the Browns receiving volume. To that point, his 2.24 expected YPRR also ranks 93rd percentile.

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17_browns_cooper.png

Outside of Cooper, David Njoku looks like the best bet in the passing game. Njoku is seeing very similar target volume to Donovan Peoples-Jones, but his tight end eligibility makes his role in the offense far more interesting. Njoku ran a route on 91% of dropbacks against the Saints, so he can be counted on to be in a full-time role.

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We can be very confident that playing time in the backfield will be split. Nick Chubb saw a 53% snaps share against the Saints, with Kareem Hunt at 47%. If there was ever a game for the Browns to lean on Chubb, it was last week. Yet his snap share fell from 70% in Week 15 to a true split against the Saints. Chubb is talented enough to produce a big game on efficiency alone. But any hopes for a more prominent role to close the season appear to have been dashed.

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17_browns_nick_chubb_.png

Commanders Implied Team Total: 21.5

The Commanders are moving back to Carson Wentz at quarterback, which isn’t good for anyone. Wentz has been less efficient than Taylor Heinicke this year. He ranks 34th in EPA per play, with Heinicke at 28th. And Wentz has also been far less accurate, ranking 33rd in CPOE with Heinicke at ninth. Heinicke is a backup-level talent, but replacing him with a less accurate backup-level talent isn’t going to be fun.

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17_commanders_epa.png

But fortunately, we won’t have to see a ton of Wentz this week. The Commanders have been extremely run-heavy in recent weeks. They haven’t posted a PROE above -10% since Week 9.

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17_commander_proe_trend.png

This commitment to the run is unlikely to change against a Browns defense that is one of the biggest run funnels in the league. Opponents are averaging a -4% PROE against the Browns and are shifting 3% to the run. The reason for this is rather obvious. The Browns are quite competent against the pass, ranking 10th in EPA allowed per dropback. But they are a disaster against the run, ranking dead last in EPA allowed per rush and 30th in rushing success rate.

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With Antonio Gibson dealing with knee and foot issues, Brian Robinson should lead the backfield. If Gibson misses the game, JoNathan Williams can be expected to step into a meaningful snap share, but Robinson would still likely operate as the clear lead back. That gives Robinson a higher ceiling than usual against an abysmal run defense. He has not been very good this season, but Robinson is consistent, ranking RB16 in NFL Next Gen’s success rate. He shapes up as a volume-based RB2.

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With Wentz under center, it is tough to trust anyone but Terry McLaurin in the passing game. McLaurin has an impressive 2.05 YPRR, and his target volume has been far stronger than Jahan Dotson‘s and Curtis Samuel‘s. So while those receivers profile as TD dart throws, McLaurin looks like a WR3.

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Jaguars at Texans, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Jaguars Implied Team Total: 23.75

Trevor Lawrence has had an impressive second season. Of course, he’s made some big mistakes, particularly in the red zone. But even still, he ranks 10th in EPA per play. And Lawrence has been particularly impressive when looking at success rate. Only Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen have more consistently produced positive expected value.

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17_jags_epa_per_game.png

But the Jaguars haven’t fully built their offense around Lawrence. They have been a balanced team this year with a 0% PROE and a -3% PROE on 1st-and-10. If anything, they are prioritizing the run.

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That is very notable, considering the Jaguars are now playing the Texans, who are the biggest run funnel in the league. Because while the Texans aren’t good against the pass, ranking 22nd in dropback success rate, they are absolutely terrible against the run, ranking 29th in rushing success rate.

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The Jaguars are a much stronger passing team than running team, so it would be logical for them to attack the Texans through the air. However, they have not been aggressive this season, and this would be an odd matchup for them to move away from their balanced game plan. They probably won’t commit fully to the run, but we can expect somewhat limited passing volume from Lawrence this week.

Limited volume is not ideal for the Jaguars in particular because their passing game is not concentrated. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones have been operating as a 1A/1B tandem. When looking at YPRR, Kirk looks like the top option. But Jones has seen more target volume per route and both wide receivers are running a full slate of routes.

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17_jags_yprr.png

Marvin Jones and Evan Engram also see meaningful target volume on their routes. Engram has 81% route participation, which is an elite rate for a tight end. And Jones is at 77%. That keeps Jones off the fantasy radar but still makes him a thorn in the side of the Jaguars’ other receivers. With the potential for limited passing volume, Engram is the most interesting option in the passing game since he fills the tight end spot.

But with the Jaguars going against an extremely vulnerable Texans run defense, Travis Etienne looks like a very strong play. Etienne has seen 70%+ snaps in four straight games and can be counted on for a high-end snap share against one of the worst run defenses in the league. And Etienne has run well this season, ranking ninth in NFL Next Gen’s rush yards over expected / attempt, 11th in success rate, and ninth in breakaway yards per game.

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Etienne’s lack of involvement in the passing game has been a bit odd. But his explosive rushing profile makes him a low-end RB1 in this matchup.

Texans Implied Team Total: 19.75

Davis Mills has been absolutely brutal this season, ranking 35th in EPA per play and 36th in CPOE. He’s been a slightly more accurate version of Zach Wilson but without any of the traits-based upside.

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17_texans_epa.png

But the Texans have not tried to hide Mills in the passing game as much as you might expect. Granted, by splitting quarterback reps between Mills and Jeff Driskel, you can argue pretty convincingly that they are trying to hide Mills. But Driskel has been bad as well, and the Texans are still operating as a fairly balanced team. They have a -2% PROE but have been pass-first on first down with a 2% PROE.

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The Texans now face a Jaguars defense that has been solid against the run, ranking 12th in EPA allowed per rush. But the Jaguars have been very poor against the pass, ranking 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback. And the Jaguars have had a very easy schedule. As a result, their stats against the pass likely understate just how vulnerable they are through the air.

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The first time the Texans played the Jaguars, they rolled out a very conservative game plan. The Texans posted a -11% PROE in a 13-6 win. However, provided the Jaguars can score a touchdown in this game, the Texans will have trouble being as conservative this week.

With that in mind, both Brandin Cooks and Chris Moore look somewhat interesting. Cooks returned to the lineup in Week 16 but was limited to 77% route participation. However, he was heavily targeted with a 27% target share and a 43% air yard share. He looks worth trusting as a WR3 this week.

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17_texans_yprr.png

It’s also worth noting that Chris Moore led the Texans with 94% route participation last week. Earlier in the season, Moore appeared to be behind Philip Dorsett. However, Dorsett was limited to 60% route participation last week, so Moore appears to have passed him on the depth chart.

Cardinals at Falcons, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Cardinals Implied Team Total: 19.5

Colt McCoy will return to the lineup for the Cardinals this week, which doesn’t seem like it should matter much. After all, McCoy ranks dead last in EPA per play this season.

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17_cardinals_epa_1.png

However, if we expand the sample to quarterbacks with 90+ plays, it becomes clear why McCoy’s return to the lineup is important. We’re obviously not starting McCoy, but his return should impact the Cardinals’ receivers.

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And this is a good matchup for McCoy. The Falcons rank 30th in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in dropback success rate... they are absolutely terrible against the pass. And the Falcons are also very vulnerable to the run, ranking 25th in EPA allowed per rush and 32nd in rushing success rate.

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17_cardinals_mu.png

The Cardinals have been a consistently run-first team, posting a positive PROE in just 4-of-15 games this season. With a -1% PROE, they aren’t a run-heavy team, but they are a good bet to lean on the run in a given week and should benefit from the ability to move the ball through the air and on the ground.

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17_cardinals_proe_trend.png

Efficiency will be key for Cardinals pass catchers because the Falcons will likely run heavily in this game, which could severely limit play volume. With that in mind, DeAndre Hopkins looks head and shoulders above the Cardinals’ other receivers. Hopkins was limited to one catch for just four yards against the Buccaneers, but his outing feels safe to blame on Trace McSorley. Hopkins drew 10 targets, a 24% target share, and a 57% air yard share. It’s not like he got lost, McSorley just couldn’t hit him. Hopkins has an elite 2.25 expected YPRR this season and will greatly benefit from the upgrade in quarterback play... which is still bad but will no longer be abysmal.

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17_cardinals_yprr.png

Marquise Brown‘s playing time was reportedly limited because he was late to a team meeting rather than because of injury. That can be taken as a positive for his Week 17 availability. Brown’s 1.51 YPRR is not impressive, but like Hopkins, he has underperformed his per-route target volume. He should operate as the Cardinals’ clear No. 2 receiver and has some FLEX appeal.

Trey McBride is also in play as a desperation tight end option. He’s shown zero ceiling this season, peaking at a 15% target share and a 15% air yard share. However, the dude runs a lot of routes. Against the Buccaneers, he set a new season high with 84% route participation, and he’s been at 70%+ in five of his last six games.

But outside of Hopkins, James Conner is clearly the most trustworthy play in this offense. Over the last four weeks, Conner’s snap share has been absolutely ridiculous, and he’s now posted a 91%+ snap share in 5 of his last six games.

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Conner hasn’t flashed strong efficiency as a rusher or receiver this season. But he hasn’t been terrible, either. And when a running back is playing literally every snap... efficiency isn’t quite as important. He profiles as an RB1—assuming he’s over the illness that has kept him out of practice this week.

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17_cardinals_conner.png

Falcons Implied Team Total: 22.5

There is a clearly established path to putting up points against the Cardinals’ defense—the passing game. Teams have averaged a 4% PROE against the Cardinals and are shifting 4% to the pass. Only the Dolphins rate as a bigger past funnel than the Cardinals. However, there is simply no way that Arthur Smith is considering how the rest of the league has attacked the Cardinals this year. Smith’s Falcons have yet to post a positive PROE in a single game this season. And they certainly aren’t about to break that streak against Colt McCoy.

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And in Smith’s defense, it makes sense for the Falcons to play to their own strengths rather than following the established game plan against the Cardinals. The Falcons are better at running the ball than passing it, ranking fifth in EPA per rush but only 21st in EPA per dropback.

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Meanwhile, the Cardinals aren’t great at defending the run. Sure, they rank dead last in dropback success rate. But they also rank 23rd in rushing success rate. They also have a better ranking in EPA allowed per dropback than in EPA allowed per rush. So the Falcons have no reason to stop playing like the Falcons this week.

And fortunately, Tyler Allgeier has emerged as a somewhat trustworthy RB2 in the Falcons backfield. Allgeier played 59% of snaps against the Ravens, with Cordarrelle Patterson at just 37%. And Patterson saw 18 attempts to Patterson’s eight. If the Falcons pound the rock this week—which looks like a very safe bet—Allgeier should be the back that they lean on.

And Allgeier has been a very impressive rusher. He ranks RB10 in RYOE / attempt, RB9 in success rate, and RB7 in elusive rating. He’s profiling as a high-end chunk-play runner. He’s not the best big-play threat, but as he consolidates attempts, that becomes less and less of a worry.

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17_falcons_allgeier.png

Unfortunately, the Cardinals’ emphasis on the run makes Drake London more difficult to trust than he should be. London also isn’t helped by the fact that Desmond Ridder has been far less accurate than Marcus Mariota. Mariota’s accuracy wasn’t particularly impressive, but Ridder’s has been a disaster. Only Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, P.J. Walker, Kyle Allen, Trace McSorley, and Malik Willis rank lower in CPOE.

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17_falcons_epa.png

As a result, London is a precarious play, as he is every week. He is a great bet for targets; London is averaging 10.7 targets per game over the last three weeks. But London’s target volume requires a colossal target share; he’s averaging a 40% target share over the previous three weeks. London can have what would normally be an impressive slice of the Falcons’ offense... and turn in a dreadful fantasy outing. Still, he’s worth taking the risk with this week in a soft matchup.

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17_falcons_drake_london.png

49ers at Raiders, 4:05 Eastern, Sunday

49ers Implied Team Total: 25.5

We now have a decent sample on Brock Purdy, and it’s remarkable how similar his play has been to Jimmy Garoppolo‘s. Garoppolo was fourth in EPA per play but just 27th in CPOE. As is usually the case with Garoppolo, he was far more efficient than you would expect based on his accuracy. We’re seeing the exact same dynamic with Purdy, who ranks eighth in EPA per play and 26th in CPOE.

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So far, this looks like a big win for Kyle Shanahan, who’s been able to scheme highly efficient offense with a backup-level quarterback... and has also gotten strong play out of Brock Purdy.

I’m kidding—I think. Either way, Purdy’s play strongly supports the case that Garoppolo is largely a product of the 49ers’ scheme and weapons. And it’s not just the EPA. The 49ers are also telling us they don’t see a huge difference between Garoppolo and Purdy.

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In Trey Lance‘s two starts this season, the 49ers were extremely run-heavy with a -17% PROE. With Garoppolo starting from Weeks 3-12, they were much more balanced, with a -1% PROE. They’ve maintained a similar approach over the last four weeks with a -2% PROE. Purdy has been slightly less effective than Garoppolo, and the 49ers have been slightly less willing to lean into the pass. But we’re talking about a very similar offense to the one that Garoppolo facilitated earlier in the year.

And the 49ers’ faith in Purdy is critical this week because they are going against a Raiders defense that is absolutely putrid against the pass. The Raiders rank 29th in EPA allowed per dropback and 28th in dropback success rate.

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And Las Vegas has earned those unimpressive ranks against a very easy schedule of opposing passing offenses. As a result, I have them rated as the worst pass defense in the entire league. Of course, the 49ers are unlikely to go aggressively pass-heavy; that’s not their style. But Purdy’s efficient play and the fairly balanced play-calling approach they’ve taken with him is a good sign for their ability to put up production through the air.

Given the matchup, it’s hard not to be excited about George Kittle‘s chances of extending his epic two-game run. Over the last two weeks, Kittle has totaled 10 receptions for 213 yards and four TDs on 11 targets. And Kittle’s underlying numbers have also been strong. He’s had route participation of 89% and 100% and target shares of 21% and 32%. Deebo Samuel has missed practice again this week; if he misses another game, Kittle will likely play an essential role in the passing game.

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But Brandon Aiyuk‘s role in the offense has been much stronger throughout the season. Aiyuk leads the 49ers with a 1.73 expected YPRR. His 14% first-read target rate also leads the team. And with a 22% target share and a 32% air yard share, he leads the 49ers with a 0.56 WOPR. Deebo Samuel‘s versatile role makes it difficult to talk about the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver in the usual sense. But as far as wide receiver metrics go, Aiyuk has been the top option in San Francisco. This is one of the best opportunities he will have for a big week all season.

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If Samuel is out again, Jauan Jennings looks like an interesting DFS option. He ran a route on 88% of dropbacks last week, and his role in the offense has been pretty solid. His 13% first-read target rate is tied with Samuel and leads Kittle. He’s a much thinner bet than Aiyuk, but Jennings has been involved in the offense all season. He could surprise with a big game in this great matchup.

Normally, an exceptional passing matchup might not be great news for a team’s running back. But obviously, it’s a different case with Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey ranks RB1 in route participation and target share and RB4 in YPRR. He’s in great shape against a Raiders defense that could coax more passing attempts out of the 49ers. McCaffrey has seen 75%+ snaps in three straight games and should be heavily involved regardless of how the 49ers attack. He looks like the best running back play on the board.

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Raiders Implied Team Total: 16

The Raiders have decided to bench Derek Carr, who they clearly intend to trade this offseason. The benching preserves Carr’s health, but it can’t be lost on the Raiders that the move also avoids putting Carr on tape against the 49ers’ elite defense.

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The Raiders will now turn to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. We have a minimal sample on Stidham, who has recorded just 75 career plays. But what we have is not promising... at all.

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The Raiders are moving from an average starter to a player with bottom-of-the-barrel efficiency. Stidham may be a pleasant surprise but it is far more likely that he tanks the Raiders’ offense.

Of course, this move has more implications than downgraded quarterback play. The Raiders are calling it on 2022. And there’s no need for them to let Stidham embarrass them. Instead, they are likely to go very run-heavy, despite facing the 49ers’ elite run defense.

With a -4% PROE and a -8% PROE on 1st-and-10, the Raiders have already been run-heavy with Carr at the helm. However, they could go full Falcons this week.

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17_raiders_proe.png

This creates a decent floor for Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is a free agent after the season, so the Raiders don’t have any incentive to sit him this week. With a 75%+ snap share in seven straight games, Jacobs is locked into a lot of playing time. Still, with the passing offense likely to take a major step back this week, he’s not in an ideal position. Jacobs leads the NFL in share of team attempts and has run well; you’re not benching him. But he looks more like a high-end RB2, given the downgrade in his surroundings.

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17_raiders_jacobs.png

The situation looks more concerning for Davante Adams, who clearly had a connection with Carr. Adams’s 32% target share ranks second to only Tyreek Hill. And with a 41% air yard share, he is also second to Hill in WOPR. However, Adams’ target dominance isn’t just Carr locking onto him. Only Hill and Chris Olave are seeing first-read targets at a higher rate than Adams. The offense is clearly designed to get him the ball. And Adams also ranks 93rd percentile in open score. Adams can beat the man in front of him as well as any wide receiver in the league. That part of his game isn’t impacted by who is throwing to him.

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17_raiders_adams.png

But while Adams looks worth riding with, the rest of the Raiders’ receivers look very suspect. Outside of Jacobs, every Raider who has seen meaningful playing time is underperforming their expected target volume. And that was with Carr at quarterback. Things could get much worse with Stidham at quarterback against the 49ers. Darren Waller is potentially worth starting in a pinch, but he profiles as a TE2.

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17_raiders_yppr.png

Jets at Seahawks, 4:05 Eastern, Sunday

Jets Implied Team Total: 22.25

Mike White is healthy enough to return to action this week, which provides a huge boost to the Jets offense. White hasn’t been outstanding this season; he ranks just 15th in EPA per play and 32nd in CPOE. But White has been far better at facilitating the Jets offense than Zach Wilson. Wilson ranks 39th in EPA per play; only Colt McCoy has been less efficient. And Wilson has been even less accurate than White, ranking 38th in CPOE.

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17_jets_epa.png

White’s return is great news for Garrett Wilson. As a result of bad weather and poor quarterback play, Wilson was held to just 30 yards against the Jaguars. It was an especially frustrating outcome against Jacksonville’s weak pass defense. However, Wilson gets a chance for redemption against a Seahawks defense that isn’t much better; Seattle ranks 28th in EPA allowed per dropback.

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17_jets_mu.png

Wilson’s efficiency looks likely to improve, but he will still have to worry about passing volume—because the Seahawks have been a major run funnel. Opponents are averaging a -6% PROE and are shifting 3% to the run. The Jets are a run-first team and won’t need much coaxing to go run-heavy.

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17_jets_proe.png

However, when the Jets call passing plays, we can count on Wilson to be running routes. He logged 98% route participation against the Jaguars and leads the team with 85% route participation this season. Wilson’s profile isn’t quite elite by veteran wide receiver standards, but he is having an extremely impressive rookie season. His 1.94 YPRR is an elite mark for a rookie, and his efficiency is fully supported by his target volume. And his target volume is sustained by the fact that he is getting open at a very high rate, ranking in the 86th percentile in ESPN’s open score. He profiles as a WR2.

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17_jets_wilson.png

Unfortunately, the Jets backfield has devolved into a committee. Last week, Zonovan Knight saw a 41% snap share, with Michael Carter at 39% and Ty Johnson at 20%. However, this matchup could see the Jets lean on Knight as their two-down hammer. He looks very game-script dependent but is a viable dart throw as a bet that the Jets lean into this run funnel matchup.

Seahawks Implied Team Total: 20.25

Geno Smith had a very strong start to the season. From Week 1-13, Smith ranked eighth in EPA per play and led the NFL in CPOE. However, things have come off the rails over the last three weeks. Smith is down to 29th in EPA per play. He’s still been accurate, but far less so than before, ranking 16th in CPOE.

17_seahawks_epa.png

17_seahawks_epa.png

So this is not a great week for the Seahawks to face a Jets pass defense that ranks sixth in EPA allowed per dropback, third in PFF’s coverage grades, and third in PFF’s pass rush grades.

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17_seahawks_mu.png

The Seahawks could pivot to the run with Smith struggling and a difficult matchup on tap. The Jets aren’t bad against the run, but their run defense is less imposing than their pass defense. And the Seahawks just shifted to the run in a major way against the Chiefs, posting a -13% PROE and a -7% PROE on 1st-and-10. This was a radical departure from the way Seattle has played this season. They have been surprisingly aggressive this year, but that could be changing with Smith’s play dropping off.

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17_seahawks_proe_trend.png

The Seahawks’ game plan will also be impacted by whether or not Tyler Lockett is available. Lockett is coming off finger surgery but got in a limited practice Thursday, apparently looks great catching the ball, and could play on Sunday. Without Lockett in the lineup against the Chiefs, Laquon Treadwell logged 93% route participation... which is kind of wild. That went about as well as expected, with Treadwell posting a 0.63 YPRR. Having Lockett back in the fold should help boost Seattle’s passing attempts and draw coverage from DK Metcalf, who was double-teamed on 55% of his routes against the Chiefs. Metcalf is a WR2 either way, but his ceiling looks higher with Lockett in the lineup. There’s a much better chance of the Seahawks airing it out with two high-end receiving weapons for Smith to throw to.

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17_seahawks_comp.png

The Seahawks may also have a harder time leaning on the ground game with Ken Walker at less than 100%. Walker handled 26 rushing attempts against the Chiefs, so it’s not like he couldn’t handle a heavy workload. But Walker’s ankle injury may have limited his effectiveness. Per NFL Next Gen, he rushed for 14 fewer yards than expected, the fifth-worst showing of the week. Walker has struggled with consistency all season, ranking ahead of only Darrell Henderson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in success rate. His Friday practice status will be important to monitor. If playing at less than full health, he looks like a volume-based play. But if reports are positive, his breakaway upside makes him more of a high-end RB2.

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17_seahawks_ken_walker_.png

Rams at Chargers, 4:25 Eastern, Sunday

Rams Implied Team Total: 18

Since joining the Rams, Baker Mayfield‘s play has improved dramatically. From Week 1-12, Mayfield ranked dead last in EPA per play and CPOE. He was the least efficient and least accurate quarterback in the NFL, and it wasn’t particularly close.

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17_rams_epa_1.png

But since joining the Rams, Mayfield is up to 13th in EPA per play. Although his accuracy is still a concern, he ranks just 24th in CPOE. But he’s in the Jared Goff / Jimmy Garoppolo zone, where he’s still facilitating efficient offense, despite suspect accuracy.

17_rams_epa_2.png

17_rams_epa_2.png

But Mayfield’s improved play is part of a very conservative offensive approach. Since joining the Rams, Mayfield has an aDOT of just 6.3. Only Daniel Jones and Kenny Pickett have a lower aDOT over the last three weeks, and no quarterback has an aDOT below 6.4 this season. Mayfield is no longer delivering league-worst play, but his improved play has been powered by a high volume of underneath throws.

This approach to the passing game makes the Rams very unexciting for fantasy... outside of Tyler Higbee. Higbee has been an underneath receiving option all season. He has a ridiculously shallow 3.5 aDOT and has seen 18% percent of his targets on screens. That target profile paid off in a big way last week when Higbee racked up 10 targets, going 9-94-2 with a 2.06 aDOT. Higbee is a pure bet on shallow receiving volume, but that is a strong bet given how his skillset aligns with Mayfield’s.

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17_rams_higbee.png

But Higbee’s fantasy value also stems from the fact that he plays tight end. He would be far less interesting if he didn’t... because there are better spots to chase receiving volume. The Rams are facing a Chargers defense that is gotten its act together against the pass but remains terrible against the run. They rank just 27th in EPA allowed per rush. So the Rams can be expected to lean on the ground game this week.

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17_rams_mu.png

The ground game will be powered by Cam Akers, who saw a 75% snap share against the Broncos after a 76% snap share in Week 15. He appears to have taken back over as the Rams’ clear-cut starter. Akers has run very poorly this season, but this matchup offers an efficiency boost and the potential for strong volume. He profiles as a TD-dependent RB2.

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17_rams_akers.png

Chargers Implied Team Total: 24.5

It continues to be a very disappointing season for Justin Herbert, who ranks just 24th in EPA per play. However, Herbert’s accuracy has been respectable; he ranks 12th in CPOE. His accuracy offers some hope for positive regression going forward.

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17_chargers_herbert.png

And the Chargers remain committed to a pass-first offense. With a 5% PROE and a 3% PROE on 1st-and-10, the Chargers aren’t in the top tier of pass-heavy offenses. But outside of the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills, they are the most committed to the pass.

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17_chargers_proe.png

And the Chargers now get a matchup that demands a pass-heavy approach. The Rams have been very strong against the run this season, leading PFF’s run defense grades and ranking third in rushing success rate. Meanwhile, they have been very susceptible to the pass, ranking 27th in dropback success rate.

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17_chargers_mu.png

Seemingly regardless of matchup, Herbert struggles to produce efficiently. So even with another good matchup this week, it’s hard to bet on an efficient Chargers passing game. However, this matchup sets up very well for passing volume. As a result, this looks like another very strong week for Keenan Allen. Allen is having a quietly great season, with an elite 2.10 YPRR that is supported by strong target volume. Injuries have limited Allen’s route participation this year, but he has been earning targets at a very high rate when on the field.

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17_chargers_comp.png

Mike Williams looks much less likely to earn targets at a high rate. For one thing, Williams isn’t getting open; he ranks just 24th percentile in ESPN’s open score. But Williams has enough big play upside to make him a low-end WR2. He has a strong 1.84 YPRR and will operate as the Chargers’ primary downfield threat. If Herbert breaks out of his slump, it will likely be by connecting with Williams on a couple of big plays downfield.

And Herbert may need to keep his eyes downfield a bit longer if Austin Ekeler is unavailable this week as a check-down option. Ekeler tweaked his knee on the game’s final play last week and has been limited in practice. The Chargers have no incentive to play Ekeler if he’s not healthy, having already secured a playoff spot. As a result, Ekeler could sit out or see his reps significantly curtailed.

But if reports are positive on Ekeler, this difficult rushing matchup isn’t a concern. Ekeler hasn’t run particularly well this season. Instead, his elite fantasy value has stemmed from passing game work. Ekeler ranks RB2 in target share; the more the Chargers drop back, the better.

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17_chargers_ekeler.png

Vikings at Packers, 4:25 Eastern, Sunday

Vikings Implied Team Total: 22.25

Last week I was skeptical that the Vikings would build their game plan around an aggressive passing attack. The Giants are not good against the pass, but they are also quite vulnerable against the run, and the Vikings have generally been a balanced team. However, the Vikings proved me wrong. Not only did they post a 12% PROE, the second highest of the week, but they also did so from a position of strength. The Vikings weren’t pass-heavy from negative game script; instead, they were dictating a pass-heavy game plan to their opponent.

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17_vikings_epr.png

Last week’s showing was very encouraging as we consider the Vikings’ underlying offensive philosophy. However, they will really need to be committed to the pass to go pass-heavy this week. The Vikings are playing a Packers defense that is solid against the pass, ranking 10th in dropback success rate. However, the Packers are much weaker against the run, ranking 31st in rushing success rate.

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17_vikings_mu.png

But while the Vikings could be considerably less pass-heavy than last week, they are unlikely to get carried away with a run-heavy game plan. The Vikings have yet to post a PROE below -3% this season. As a result, there should be sufficient passing volume to support strong games from the fantasy-relevant options in the passing game.

And even if the Vikings roll out their most run-heavy game plan of the year, Justin Jefferson should be just fine. His profile is off the charts, ranking in the 95th percentile or above in almost every metric.

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17_vikings_jefferson.png

Of particular note is the fact that Jefferson is essentially matchup-proof. He is being double covered on 30% of his routes, yet ranks 96 percentile in open score. Taking away Jefferson isn’t really a thing.

Last week I noted that T.J. Hockenson was seeing solid target volume and simply needed to perform more efficiently. Given that he’s coming off a 13-109-2 outing, that might seem like it was a good call. But instead, Hockenson’s underlying opportunity spiked. He saw a 34% target share and a 40% air yard share against the Giants. And he was clearly a huge part of the game plan, with a first-read target on 24% of his routes, which led the team. Positive regression is always nice... but this is even better. The fact that Hockenson has that level of target opportunity in his range of outcomes is a powerful sign. However, it’s a major concern for Adam Thielen, who has been completely passed as the No. 2 option in the passing game. Over the last two weeks, he has been targeted on just 7% of his routes. And he’s down to a very weak 1.12 YPRR.

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17_vikings_yprr.png

Despite facing a weak Giants run defense, Dalvin Cook turned in a disappointing result. But he can make it up to fantasy managers this week. Cook should see plenty of attempts against a very poor Packers run defense. Cook ranks RB2 in snap share and RB4 in team attempt share, so his workload is not in question in this plus matchup. Unfortunately, Cook has not run very well this year. He ranks just RB37 in RYOE / attempt and RB43 in success rate. But he’s still showing the ability to rip off big runs, with an RB10 ranking in breakaway yards per game. He profiles as a low-end RB1.

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17_vikings_cook.png

Packers Implied Team Total: 25.75

The Packers have been frustratingly conservative this year with a -3% PROE and a -5% PROE on 1st-and-10. But they’ve opened things up a bit in their last two games. This was particularly true against the Dolphins when they posted a 9% PROE and a 17% PROE on 1st-and-10—both were their highest marks of the season.

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17_packers_proe_trend.png

The Packers were likely just playing a matchup against Miami, who is much weaker against the pass than the run. However, it’s still a positive sign that they were willing to be so aggressive even in a matchup that called for it. And the Packers get another chance to air it out this week. They are facing a Vikings defense that ranks 20th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Vikings are more respectable against the run, ranking ninth in EPA allowed per rush.

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17_packers_mu.png

The Packers last played the Vikings way back in Week 1. But, for what it’s worth, they posted a 5% PROE in that game, showing a willingness to pass aggressively.

With a good matchup on tap, it will be very disappointing if Christian Watson cannot suit up after logging back-to-back DNPs in practice this week. However, if he can play through his hip injury, he looks worth trusting as a WR3 in this matchup. Watson has clearly been the Packers’ best wide receiver this season, delivering an elite 2.20 YPRR that is fully supported by elite target volume.

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17_packers_yprr.png

If Watson can’t go, Allen Lazard should step into the No. 1 receiver role. Lazard has been less impressive than Watson, but that has been partly due to a poor 8.0 YPT that is 1.5 yards lower than expected for his 13.3 aDOT. As good as Watson has been as a deep threat, Lazard has the deepest aDOT on the team. He could have a strong game against a weak Vikings secondary if operating as the clear top option in the passing game. Lazard leads the Packers with 93% route participation and was at 95% last week, so he is a very safe bet for a full slate of routes in a great matchup.

Aaron Jones should theoretically benefit from a more aggressive Packers game plan because it creates additional pass-catching opportunities for him. However, it’s hard to trust Jones after he saw just 37% of snaps against the Dolphins. Jones has been playing through a minor knee injury, but the injury might be less minor than we thought. Jones has been limited in practice this week, and he profiles as a boom/bust RB2. His Friday practice status will be crucial to monitor.

Still, A.J. Dillon doesn’t look particularly interesting this week. Jones is almost certain to suit up, which should limit Dillon’s playing time to well below lead-back levels. Jones looks like a much better bet, with a profile much better matched to a potentially pass-heavy game environment.

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17_packers_aaron_jones.png

Steelers at Ravens, 8:20 Eastern, Sunday

Steelers Implied Team Total: 16.25

In his last two completed games, Kenny Pickett has faced a Falcons defense that ranks 32nd in dropback success rate and a Raiders defense that ranks 28th. Yet since Week 13, Pickett ranks just 15th in EPA per play and 26th in CPOE. If Pickett can’t flash against the absolute worst pass defenses in the NFL... it’s hard to believe that he’ll hit another level this year. And throughout the entire season, Pickett has been concerningly really bad. He ranks 29th in EPA per play between Taylor Heinicke and Russell Wilson.

17_steelers_epa.png

17_steelers_epa.png

However, Pickett gets another soft matchup this week. The Ravens rank 19th in EPA allowed per dropback and 24th in dropback success rate. And Baltimore is stronger against the run than the pass, which could create some additional passing volume for Pickett.

17_steelers_mu.png

17_steelers_mu.png

But to be frank, the Steelers appear to be losing faith in Pickett. Against a Raiders defense that is an absolute sieve, the Steelers posted a -6% PROE and a -9% PROE on 1st-and-10. The Steelers also played conservatively against a very poor Falcons defense in Week 13, posting a -4% PROE and a -2% PROE on 1st-and-10.

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17_steelers_proe_trend.png

If the Steelers continue to shift to the run, it will obviously limit passing volume. But in this matchup, it is also likely to limit overall offensive efficiency, given that the Ravens are solid up front.

It also doesn’t help that the Steelers depend on Najee Harris to move the ball on the ground. Pittsburgh recommitted to Harris against the Raiders, giving him 72% of snaps. It’s unclear why they did this, given that Harris is bottom of the barrel in most efficiency metrics. But draft capital is a powerful thing, and we’ll likely see Harris in a clear-cut lead-back role. He’s a volume-based RB2 option.

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17_steelers_harris.png

As far as the pass catchers go, Pat Freiermuth is the only one I’d be willing to start in a fantasy championship game. Freiermuth had 88% route participation against the Raiders, which was great to see after his involvement had dipped in the previous weeks. His reduction in playing time now clearly seems related to a minor injury, which he appears to be recovered from. Freiermuth leads the Steelers with a 1.79 YPRR, which is fully supported by his target volume. And while Diontae Johnson‘s target volume is even stronger than Freiermuth’s he’s not worth burning a wide receiver spot on in the hopes that positive regression will hit this week.

17_steelers_yprr.png

17_steelers_yprr.png

Ravens Implied Team Total: 18.75

It hasn’t been a great season for Lamar Jackson, but man, things have gotten a lot worse in the Baltimore offense with him out. Tyler Huntley has been dreadfully inefficient this season, ranking ahead of only Baker Mayfield, Zach Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco, and Colt McCoy.

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17_ravens_huntley.png

Fortunately, Huntley gets a Steelers defense that ranks just 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback and 23rd in PFF’s coverage grades. So there’s a chance he’s more efficient this week.

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17_ravens_mu.png

Then again, Huntley has already played the Steelers. In Week 14, he was highly inefficient, ranking 22nd in EPA per play. It’s hard to be overly optimistic that Huntley can get anything going, but there’s a glimmer of hope in this matchup.

The bigger issue for the Ravens’ offense is that they don’t seem likely to lean into the pass, even if Huntley is playing well. The Ravens have gone extremely run-heavy in all three of Huntley’s starts. And concerningly, they’ve also been very conservative on first down. So we’re likely to see the Ravens hide Huntley this week, even if it means hurting the overall efficiency of the offense.

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17_ravens_proe_trend.png

And unfortunately, the Ravens are not committing to a clear lead back. Against the Falcons, J.K. Dobbins led the backfield with a 42% snap share, with Gus Edwards at 40% and Justice Hill at 13%. Dobbins also led the backfield with 12 touches, with Edwards at 11 and Hill at one. But with overall efficiency likely to be low, and the rushing volume split, this looks like a difficult Week 2 rollout a Ravens running back.

As a result, Mark Andrews is the only strong fantasy play in this offense. And man, what a season it could have been for Andrews. He has run a route on 87% of dropbacks, which ranks behind only George Kittle. He also leads all tight ends with a 20% target share and a 0.65 WOPR. And Andrews isn’t just the last receiver standing in the Ravens’ offense. He consistently gets open, with the highest open score among all tight ends. Andrews also wins downfield. His 10.5 aDOT ranks 93rd percentile among tight ends. He’s an elite talent who needs to be in lineups despite the many issues with the Ravens’ offense.

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17_ravens_andres_.png

Bills at Bengals, 8:15 PM Eastern, Monday

Bills Implied Team Total: 25.25

Over the last few weeks, I’ve noted how the Bills have been experimenting with more power personnel. While they typically operate primarily out of 3WR sets, we have seen them shift away from this approach several times. Understandably, in lousy weather against a bad run defense, their use of 11 personnel dropped to 63% against the Bears. And the Bills implemented a balanced game plan, with a 0% PROE and a 0% PROE on 1st-and-10. And after going genuinely pass-heavy with a 5%+ PROE in each of their first nine games, they haven’t hit that level six straight outings.

17_bills_proe_trend.png

17_bills_proe_trend.png

And the Bengals’ defense sets up as a spot where it could make sense for the Bills to go balanced. Cincinnati ranks 16th in rushing success rate, and they are stronger against the pass, ranking seventh in dropback success rate.

17_bills_mu.png

17_bills_mu.png

But while the Bengals’ pass defense is fine, it’s not strong enough to alter the Bills’ game plan. And while the Bills have been experimenting with more balanced football, they are unlikely to have fundamentally shifted their offensive philosophy. Instead, they’re likely trying to protect Josh Allen’s injured elbow and develop a fallback mode of attack for the playoffs.

But against Joe Burrow, the Bills are a good bet to lean into the strength of their offense and keep the ball in Josh Allen’s hands. Even while playing through an elbow injury, Allen has had an incredible season. He ranks third in success rate and second in EPA per game. With the Bengals likely pushing this game into a high-scoring affair, Allen should deliver both efficiency and volume this week.

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17_bills_epa_per_game.png

It’s been a quiet few weeks for Stefon Diggs, but that could change in a big way if this game gets nutty. And even after a mini-slump, Diggs’ profile is elite. He is getting open at a 91st percentile rate and delivering an elite 2.45 YPRR. He should be a big part of the Bills’ game plan this week, as evidenced by his excellent first-read target rate.

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17_bills_diggs.png

Behind Diggs, Gabe Davis is the only wide receiver who can be relied on to run a full slate of routes. Against the Bears, Isaiah McKenzie logged just 32% route participation, with Khalil Shakir at 39% and Cole Beasley at 10%. McKenzie’s playing time has been an issue for a few weeks now, and he should be on the waiver wire in most leagues. Davis doesn’t draw targets all that reliably, but his 16.0 aDOT gives him big-play upside on most of the targets he does see. He looks like a solid WR3.

Dawson Knox dealt with a back injury against the Bears, and his practice reports will need to be monitored. The injury limited him to 68% route participation last week. Knox is not a great bet at that level of playing time. He’s never been a good target earner. Instead, his fantasy value stems from the fact that he runs routes at an elite level in a Josh Allen offense. If his health looks likely to affect his playing time, he’s not a great play.

17_bills_yprr.png

17_bills_yprr.png

And unfortunately, this backfield also looks difficult to trust. With the Bills shifting away from 3WR sets last week in bad weather, it should have been a nice setup for Devin Singletary. But Singletary played on only 58% of snaps, with James Cook at 41%. And Singletary saw just 12 carries to Cook’s 11. Both backs had nice days in an easy win over the Bears, but the Bills are unlikely to be anywhere near as efficient on the ground this week. Still, Cook looks intriguing. Among RBs with 20+ targets, he ranks RB9 in YPRR. So if this game turns into a shootout, he has some PPR dart throw appeal.

Bengals Implied Team Total: 24.25

It took them a little while to get going, but the Bengals are fully committed to the pass. Since Week 6, they have posted a negative PROE just once and hit 10%+ in 6-of-10 games. They’ve also been extremely aggressive on first down, hitting a 10%+ PROE in 8-of-10 games.

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17_bengals_proe_trend.png

And the Bengals have paired an aggressive pass-heavy approach with a play style to match. Since Week 6, the Bengals rank behind only the Cardinals and Eagles in snaps from the shotgun. They’ve fully committed to the pass as much as any team in the league other than the Chiefs.

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17_bengals_proe.png

With that in mind, it’s hard to see the Bengals shying away from this matchup. First of all, although the Bills are more vulnerable against the run than the pass... they’re pretty solid against the run.

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17_bengals_mu.png

And the Bills’ pass defense doesn’t look nearly as formidable as it did to begin the season. They are a strong pass defense but not one to be afraid of neif you’re the Bengals. More importantly, the Bengals know the implications of playing Josh Allen. They’ll be gunning to put up points.

And Joe Burrow will be greatly helped by the duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Both receivers have dealt with injuries this season, but those appear to be a thing of the past. Chase and Higgins logged 100% route participation against the Patriots. Chase has a significantly stronger underlying target profile. But Higgins has played very well this season and actually leads the Bengals with a 2.07 YPRR. Both receivers need to be in lineups this week.

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17_bengals_comp.png

Tyler Boyd looks like a much thinner bet. He’s produced a mediocre 1.36 YPRR... and he’s had to run hot in YPT to do so. Instead, Hayden Hurst looks like the more interesting ancillary receiver. Hurst’s per-route opportunity has actually been stronger than Boyd’s, making him a solid tight end option in this matchup. Hurst’s route participation is a leap of faith in his first game back, but he’s had a strong 71% rate this season and is practicing in full.

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17_bengals_yprr.png

Since returning from injury, Joe Mixon has logged snap shares of 58%, 64%, and 58%. It’s not a great look for a player whose fantasy football profile is highly dependent on volume. Mixon ranks RB2 in expected fantasy points per game... but RB53 in fantasy points over expected per game. Typically, that would offer an opportunity for positive regression. But the problem with league-low inefficiency is that it opens the door for competition. And with Samaje Perine performing well in Mixon’s absence, he has lost his complete hold over the backfield.

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17_bengals_mixon.png

Perine’s involvement is especially damaging because he’s stealing routes. Perine logged 38% route participation against the Patriots, with Mixon at 40%. However, Mixon still racked up nine targets, with Perine at four. So it’s not like Mixon doesn’t have a valuable role. Instead, the issue is that we can no longer count on elite workloads for Mixon. Still, he can deliver low-end RB1 value by racking up catches. He also has solid TD equity in a game with the second-highest total of the week.

Sources

To write this article I relied on the following stats, metrics and grades.

  • Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
    • Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
    • I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency, but also for defensive efficiency.
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected
  • Pass Rate over Expected
    • Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
  • Situation Neutral Pass Rate
    • Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
  • Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
    • Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
    • Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
  • Adjusted Line Yards
  • Snaps and Snap Share
    • Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
      • Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
      • Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
    • Third down and Red Zone Snaps from Sam Hoppen’s Player Stat Explorer at 4for4.com
  • Target Share and Air Yard share
    • The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
      • Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
  • Routes run per dropback
    • Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
      • Data from Pro Football Focus
  • Yards Per Route Run
    • A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
    • This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
    • It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
    • It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
      • Data from PFF
  • Expected YPRR
    • Derived from Ben Gretch’s Weighted Targets per Route Run calculation
      • Scaled to 0 - 3.5, in line with YPRR instead of 0 - 1 scale.
  • Target per Route Run
    • TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
    • TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
      • Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
      • Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
    • TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
  • Expected Fantasy Points.
    • Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
      • I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
  • A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.