The guys over at SportsInjuryPredictor.com were kind enough to share with us some of the data from their injury prediction algorithm—a model that accounts for all sorts of variables to estimate a given player’s probability of getting injured during the season. Here’s a link to the detailed WR injury risk analysis.
Below, you can see the top wide receivers charted by their projected fantasy points and games missed due to injury.
The biggest outlier here is Percy Harvin, whose injury risk is through the roof. When you combine that with his limited upside as a scorer, that’s a situation you might want to avoid, especially in standard leagues.
The only other player in the top left box—indicative of high risk but only moderate upside—is Victor Cruz. That makes sense with what we know about Cruz and the Giants’ offense, although you could argue that Cruz has more upside than Harvin due to both more opportunities and a higher chance of scoring.
In the top right corner, you’ll find a plethora of elite receivers whose injury risks are due primarily to expected workload. These aren’t situations we want to avoid at all because opportunities are of course a prerequisite for fantasy production. Remember, the algorithm’s strongest predictor of injury is opportunities, and players like Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant would have a lower injury risk if they saw fewer targets. This is a perfect example of why we should never minimize risk at all costs.
It is worth noting, though, that Brandon Marshall comes out as the least likely of all receivers listed to get injured. That’s pretty surprising, although Marshall hasn’t missed a game in four years. One of the things that the Sports Injury Predictor algorithm has taught us is that aging players aren’t necessarily more likely to get injured than youngsters, so that probably wipes away some of the perceived risk surrounding Marshall and other veterans.
The model also favors Antonio Brown, who is only a moderate injury risk despite a very large anticipated workload. I think you’re better off favoring the big-time scorers, particularly in standard leagues, but Brown’s high floor in PPR leagues—including that on a week-to-week basis—increases his value. This is an example of when risk-minimization can make sense because 1) you’re still getting a player who will still see a heavy workload (thus not compromising upside) and 2) the cost is fairly high.
