Hello everyone! We are back for another season! I’m here once again to provide you with some stats to help you with your daily fantasy and PlayTogga Perfect XI game selections!
If you remember from last season, I did the charts that show you the odds of an event happening plotted versus their daily fantasy price. There are two main uses here:
- Goalkeeper selection – grabbing goalkeepers with a high “To Win to Nil” chance per price ratio is a +EV move, especially in cash games.
- Forward selection – this is a tool used primarily for GPPs and differentials in the PlayTogga game. Goals are the determining factor in DraftKings GPPs every week and it’s important we target players who are favored to score by the sportsbooks to maximize our upside.
To remind you how to read the charts, any player above the red line is considered to have a favorable chance to score or “win to nil” than the average players considered. We like to target those players in our fantasy games. The odds are calculated from sports book odds, and sports books have historically been spot on in predicting soccer events. The reason we consider price is because we have a price limit in daily fantasy soccer that restricts our roster building, so we want to maximize our chance at events that are high fantasy point earners, such as goals.
Here are week three’s charts:
Goalkeepers
DraftKings
This week is stacked with a lot of very high priced goalkeepers – the best of which is Thibaut Courtois. Courtois has conceded in both of Chelsea’s first matches but the Blues have played well in defense and both goals were a bit odd. A home match to Burnley, who are arguably the league’s worst attack, sees Courtois with the best odds to keep a clean sheet. Use him in all formats.
Another goalkeeper I love to target this week is David de Gea. De Gea faces Hull City, who have somehow won both of their first matches but haven’t seemingly impressed too much. A match on the road always presents a bit of a higher chance to concede, but de Gea is a great choice this weekend when many people might fade him.
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Strikers
DraftKings
The forward selections are way tougher! First of all, we have Diego Costa and Zlatan Ibrahimovich up top, but the interesting part is that Costa has a higher chance to score and comes at a significantly cheaper price. Don’t underestimate the factor home-field has on soccer, use Costa. Ibrahimovic is always a threat when he steps onto the pitch, but Costa will be much lower owned and he faces Burnley at home. I will be targeting Costa more heavily than Ibrahimovic this weekend by a margin.
A great target for cash games is Eden Hazard. Hazard has a great floor due to his fouls won, crosses, and some set-pieces, but a chance-to-score above the mean line improves his upside as well as his floor.
Another name above the line is Romelu Lukaku, who hasn’t started the season well. A home match against Stoke will give Lukaku a big upside in week three, so use him in GPPs at a superbly low ownership percentage!
If you have any questions on the charts or commentary, feel free to ask on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this, check out my colleague’s columns from earlier in the week:
Stag’s Take: http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/articles/bpl/64517/364/stags-take---gameweek-3
Fuzzy’s FPL Favorites: http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/articles/bpl/64510/364/fuzzys-fpl-favorites---gw3
AM’s Perfect XI: http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/articles/bpl/64507/506/ams-perfect-xi---week-3
Bargain Hunter: http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/articles/bpl/64496/364/the-bargain-hunter-week-3
Also, leave me suggesetions in the comments below on how I should title this column this season!
Good luck everyone!
