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As COVID-19 issues continue to wreak havoc on the college basketball slate, it’s important to watch and research how well teams are able to adjust to new opponents and adjusted schedules. Here’s where you can find betting value:
Nevada at Kansas (-17.5) o/u 154.5
This game was also a last-second replacement as the Jayhawks had Harvard scheduled originally. Also, because its last game at Colorado was canceled, Kansas hasn’t played a game in 11 days; in fact, tonight will mark just its fifth contest in the entire month of December. How much rust could there be having played so little basketball? One study suggests rest is a statistically significant advantage:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330255842_Rest_vs_Rust_The_Effect_of_Disproportionate_Time_Between_Rounds_of_a_Playoff_Series.
Granted, this research looked more at the NBA than college basketball, but what’s interesting in its findings is that the next game in extra rest is where you see a greater disparity (remember that for Tuesday’s game against Oklahoma State).
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In the transition game, Nevada’s effective field goal percentage ranks 39th in America (61.2%) while Kansas is 6th (66.6%) per hoop-math.com. David McCormack is also a player to watch for KU. So far he has eight putbacks, the most on the team. More than 20% of his made baskets are putbacks at the rim, and when the center is playing well, Kansas is a complete team offensively. Nevada has not performed well defending the paint or inside the arc, so when Kansas scores, it will probably be quick.
Expect points.
EDGE: Over 154.5 (-110)
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