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Week 3 in college football saw things return to relative normalcy, with a vast majority of ranked teams avoiding the upset. Of course, that doesn’t mean they avoided upsetting their bettors, and that’s what we’re here to discuss. (All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook.)
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Upset Alert
No college football week feels right without a few upsets, and while this week had less than the previous two, there were some notable ones to consider.
Michigan State at #24 Miami (Line: Miami -6.5, O/U 57)
Result: Michigan State wins 38-17
This is not the start Miami envisioned, now sporting a losing record after three weeks of play. A crushing defeat to Alabama is understandable, if disappointing in just how crushing it was. A blowout loss to Michigan State, a program in turmoil that struggles to pull in three-star recruits, is inexcusable.
Turnovers, as they often are in these upsets, were the main issue for Miami. Supposed star QB D’Eriq King accounted for four on his own, with two fumbles and two interceptions. His two first-half giveaways were fortunately not capitalized on by the Spartans, but the other two (both coming in the fourth quarter) absolutely were. The sack fumble in the 4th gave Michigan State the ball on the Miami 13, which was punched in for a score that gave Sparty a 24-14 lead, and his interception with 4:12 left absolutely sealed the game. The ensuing Michigan State touchdown wasn’t needed, but it added insult to injury. It’s already a lost season for the Hurricanes, who had a real chance to compete in an ACC that’s as weak as it’s been in years but it seems that was merely a pipe dream.
Bettors knew to not trust Miami. 75% of the public and 73% of the handle went to Michigan State, and they did more than just beat the spread. The game total was much closer, with 58% of bettors taking the over and 69% of the money going the same way, and those ticket-holders will feel a bit hard done. The O/U moved from 55 at opening to the closing 57 number, meaning the under hit by the thinnest of margins. At the same time, only a late melt down by Miami even allowed for the 21 fourth quarters points from Michigan State, so you really can’t feel too bad.
Fresno State at #13 UCLA (Line: UCLA -10.5, O/U 62.5)
Result: Fresno State wins 40-37
In one of the most entertaining games of the week, UCLA only got to ride the wave of their big upset of LSU for two weeks before crashing back to earth. It seems their early bye didn’t do them any favors, especially on the defensive end as Fresno State dropped 569 yards on their heads. A UCLA score to take the lead with just 1:07 left in the game probably had Bruins fans breathing a sigh of relief, only for Fresno State to score in 31 seconds to recapture the lead for good.
Bettors weren’t terribly convinced UCLA would cover the 10.5 points, with only 58% of bettors (although 66% of the money) taking UCLA, but I’m not sure many expected them to outright lose. Luckily for them, bettors were much more sure on the points total, with 79% of the public knowing a Chip Kelly involved game usually means a bundle of points for both sides.
If there’s one thing to be gleaned from this game, it’s this: Don’t ever, for any reason, trust a ranked team in Pac-12 After Dark, for any reason, ever, no matter what, no matter where, or who, or who you are with, or where you are going, or where you’ve been, ever, for any reason whatsoever. - Michael Scott - Patrick Yen.
(See also: Arizona State for further proof of the above from just this week.)
Protectors of Your Cash
Surprisingly, in a week of few upsets, no heavily bet “sure things” actually managed to deliver. Maybe bettors were feeling the burn from the mass amount of chaos in the last two weeks which made them hesitant about throwing large money on big favorites. Considering what happened to the two favorites that did see lopsided action, that may have been wise.
Failure to Launch
Tulsa at #9 Ohio State (Line Ohio State -25, O/U 60.5)
Result: Ohio State wins 41-20
OSU finds themselves on the bad end of another section this week, this time failing to come through for a large number of bettors. In the most heavily lopsided action of the week amongst ranked games (88% of the total bets and 90% of the handle) OSU didn’t just fail to deliver, they weren’t even close for most of this game. OSU needed a pick-6 with 2:29 remaining to really ice put Tulsa away, and it was a tense affair until then.
CJ Stroud is really struggling, as is their defense, and it’s clear changes need to be made somewhere as the Buckeyes’ season is rapidly slipping away with each subpar performance. Despite those problems though, OSU (thanks to TreVeyon Henderson) did manage to put up enough points (and allow enough) to barely go over the points total. Unfortunately, (and in opposition to my advice last week, just saying) the majority of the money was on the under, probably expecting a clean OSU blowout. 69% of the bettors did take the over, but as we’ve seen from the past trends, the public loves betting the over so it’s hard to say if that was game-specific.
#16 Coastal Carolina at Buffalo (Line Coastal -14, O/U 57.5)
Result: Coastal wins 28-25
What a difference a week makes. This time last week, Coastal was laying the smack down on Kansas while Buffalo was getting nearly shutout by Nebraska. To be fair, after their showing against Oklahoma it may just be that Nebraska’s defense is really good. Regardless, these were two teams on very different trajectories, which is probably why this game had the biggest line movement of all the ranked games, going from -10.5 at opening to -14 by kickoff.
Neither line was enough as the Bulls ran the Chanticleers real close. Buffalo got a 4th quarter interception down 11, but the ensuing drive took too long. The Bulls eventually scored after a seven minute drive to cut the lead to three, and were an onside kick away from this game getting really good. Unfortunately it wasn’t to be and CCU survived.
Bettors however, did not. In the only other top-25 game where over 80% of the bettors and handle went for one team, CCU were unable to even come close to rewarding the trust placed in them. Their biggest lead was the aforementioned 11, which didn’t come until the last quarter. To add insult to injury, more than 80% of bets and money went to the over, which also didn’t hit.
Missed the Target
Sometimes bets are close and just barely miss. Other times, everyone is really, really, really wrong. This is that time.
Nebraska at #3 Oklahoma (Line: Oklahoma -22.5, O/U 62.5)
Result: Oklahoma wins 23-16
The part to zero in on is the point total, which predicted a high-scoring affair. It makes sense, with Oklahoma being THE poster boys for high-flying offenses led by Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler. On Nebraska’s side, Adrian Martinez is no slouch, and I assume the Vegas script had Nebraska needing to push the throttle as Oklahoma came out guns blazing, with both teams trading big plays and long touchdowns.
None of that happened in a game that ended up more akin to a defensive duel rather than a showdown between two elite offenses. Then again, is it really a defensive duel if the offenses just look...bad? Oklahoma, home of explosive scoring, had their longest play go for 23 yards, and Rattler only passed for 214 total and probably should have been picked off at least once. Martinez on his end actually looked pretty good, but Nebraska had a lot of other problems that sunk them. An abundance of penalties, especially on the O-line killed multiple drives, and another terrible kicking performance didn’t help the scoring either. Martinez did have a pick near the OU red zone, but DJ Graham’s one-handed near backwards snag will go down as one of the plays of the year so it’s hard to fault Martinez too much. The play also technically hurt Oklahoma, but look at this grab, man. Worth it.
DJ Graham intercepts this pass with ONE HAND 🔥
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 18, 2021
(via @CFBONFOX)pic.twitter.com/fj5Gh6Hq5Q
Split Decisions
There were a lot of these this week, with the money and the public going different directions on quite a few games. Nebraska-OU was the biggest overall split, with 69% of the bets taking OU but 65% of the money going the way of Nebraska and the points (advantage: handle) but that was far from the only game.
Georgia Southern at #20 Arkansas (Line: Arkansas -23.5, O/U 52.5)
Result: Arkansas wins 45-10
I’m not really sure what happened to the high rollers on this one, as they missed quite badly. Usually you can assume the money will be the most accurate, as the sharps doing this for a living and dropping big bucks are doing the most research and know the most, but this time they may have gotten too smart for their own good. Perhaps they thought Arkansas was a fluke or something, but 59% of the handle went to Georgia Southern and the points. That’s with Arkansas coming off a drubbing of #15 Texas and Georgia Southern getting shellacked by Florida Atlantic. Whatever the reason, the simple choice to go with Arkansas was the best one, and 64% of bettors took the easy way out and got rewarded.
This game also featured a big split on the O/U total, and again the handle backed the wrong horse. Or pig, I guess. 68% of the total bets went to the over, while 63% of the total cash decided under. This one makes a lot more sense. Arkansas’ 45 points scored on Saturday was their season high, and Georgia Southern only put up six against FAU last week. I assume the money thought this game would be a swift blowout leading to lower overall scores, but that also begs the question why they wouldn’t also take Arkansas -23.5 if they thought the Razorbacks would have this in the bag fast?
#14 Iowa State at UNLV (Line Iowa State -32.5, O/U 53)
Result: Iowa State wins 48-3
Bettors liked the Rebels at home and really didn’t like Iowa State’s disappointing loss to Iowa, so much so that a whopping 71% of the bets came in for UNLV and the points. To be fair, it was also a massive points spread for an ISU team that put up 33 COMBINED in their first two games. The majority of the handle, though, knew that Brock Purdy and the boys just needed a road trip to Vegas to get their heads right. 54% of the money still believed in Cyclone supremacy which is not a massive majority by any means but still a good win considering how many people went the other way.
This game also featured a split decision on the O/U, and the majority of the money squeaked out the win here as well. 68% of the public took the over while 54% of the handle went under, which just made it by a scant two points. Given how easily Iowa State was marching down the field, another minute and the overs probably would’ve had it.
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Second Half Heroes
Some teams need a minute to get going. These are their stories.
#8 Cincinnati at Indiana (Line Cincinnati -3.5, O/U 50)
Result: Cincinnati wins 38-24
While not necessarily notable on its own as Cincinnati comfortably covered, it is worth mentioning that this is two weeks in a row where the Bearcats had a very slow start before exploding in the second half. Last week saw the Bearcats tied with Murray State 7-7 at the half before Cincy poured on 35 in the second, and this week told a similar tale. Cincy was down 14-0 at one point early in the game, but did manage to pull it back to 14-10 by the end of the half. Just like against Murray State, Cincinnati woke up in the second half on all sides of the ball (except kicking). The Bearcats scored four touchdowns, two on the ground, one through the air and one on a return, while limiting Indiana to just ten points.
Two weeks isn’t enough to be a trend, but if Cincy starts slow against Notre Dame in a couple weeks, maybe throw some cash on a second-half line. Luke Fickell and company now have 50 points in the fourth quarter, which is by far their most of any quarter, and on the other hand they’ve been shut out in the first quarter in their last two games.
Close Calls
Close calls are the most fun stories if you’re a neutral, and the most heart-stopping if you had skin in the game. Either way, it’s a thrilling ride.
#1 Alabama at #11 Florida (Line: Alabama -14.5, O/U 60)
Result: Alabama wins 31-29
This game started out like many Alabama games do, with the Crimson Tide swallowing their opponents in an unstoppable torrent. They jumped out to a 21-3 lead in the first quarter via three Bryce Young touchdowns, and I’m sure many people thought we may as well call the playoffs now. Florida had very different plans, however. They didn’t take their beating lying down, and showed fight that not many teams can muster when they are getting their doors blown off. They shut Alabama out in the second quarter while scoring a touchdown themselves, but crucially missed the extra point. In the third quarter, Florida had two five minute touchdown drives that kept the ball out of Nick Saban’s paws which set the stage for a thrilling final quarter. Alabama kicked a field goal to make it 31-23 at the start of the 4th, and then Florida responded with a gutsy touchdown drive that featured multiple third and long conversions. That made the score 31-29. Because of the earlier missed PAT, Florida was forced to go for two, which came up short and handed Alabama the victory.
The point total for the game ended up at 60, so the O/U, (which moved to 60 from an opening total of 58) pushed. All because of a seemingly innocent PAT miss in the second quarter, when no one thought this game would be close. While it’s better than a loss, 79% of bets and 71% of the handle took the over, and were this close to cashing out if not for one, little kick.
The wonderful thing about betting is that even if games are mostly chalk, the betting world isn’t. There are always interesting games to talk about, trends to observe and misfortunes to chuckle at.
Speaking of trends, let’s continue our look at O/U betting behavior. As expected, 17 of 20 ranked games had a majority of total bets take the over, and the handle was again slightly more balanced, with the over favored in 15 of 20. Actual game data skewed under, although not as badly as it did in Week 1. Eleven games went under, one pushed and eight went over. It’s well known that “casual” bettors like to take the over, but so far even the money is taking the over way too often in three straight weeks. For you prospective bettors out, maybe take a second before you hammer that over bet.
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