The two highest ranking schools remaining in the College Football Playoff meet in the second semifinal Friday in Atlanta when Curt Cignetti’s Indiana Hoosiers (14-0) take the field against Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks (13-1).
These teams have already played once this season back on October 11 in Eugene, OR with the Hoosiers controlling the game and the scoreboard start to finish in a 30-20 win over the Ducks.
The underlying storyline is the showdown between the expected Top 2 picks in the NFL Draft - Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore.
Neither quarterback was very good in their initial meeting. Moore threw for just 186 yards and a couple picks and Mendoza threw a pick six.
Indiana did not need a Heismanesque performance from Mendoza in the quarterfinals. The Hoosiers advanced to the semis with a dominant, 38-3 rout of the Alabama Crimson Tide thanks to a dominant effort by the defense which allowed the Tide just 11 first downs and only 23 yards rushing. Defense was also the story for the Ducks in the quarters. Oregon limited the Red Raiders to just ten first downs and 64 yards rushing in a 23-0 win.
Lets take a closer look at each of these schools on both sides of the ball along with a handful of key players and see if there is a smart wager or two to be placed.
Game Details and How to Watch: Oregon vs. Indiana
- Date: Friday, January 9, 2026
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- City: Atlanta, GA
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
Game Odds: Oregon vs. Indiana
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Oregon Ducks (+150), Indiana Hoosiers (-180)
- Spread: Indiana -3.5 (-108)
- Total: 48.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Oregon Ducks
Head Coach: Dan Lanning
2025 Record: 13-1
Offense Ranking: 7
Defense Ranking: 3
Strength of Schedule: 9
Oregon is currently sporting an impressive 13–1 (8–1) record, finishing No. 3 in SP+ and backing it up with 12.5 second-order wins, the profile of an elite team that largely matched its underlying performance. The Ducks pair a Top 10 offense (SP+ No. 7) with a Top 3 defense, creating one of the most balanced resumes in the country under HC Dan Lanning. Oregon overwhelmed opponents with efficiency and explosiveness, ranking Top 10 nationally in EPA per play, yards per play, and points per drive, while also finishing first nationally in 20+ yard play rate. Defensively, the Ducks were suffocating, sitting Top 10 in success rate allowed, yards per play allowed, and points per drive, and consistently forcing opponents into long-yardage situations. Outside of a lone midseason loss to their current opponent Indiana, the Ducks has controlled games from start to finish and enters the CFP Semifinal as a bonafide national title contender.
The Oregon Ducks Offense
Oregon’s offense has operated at a title-level standard, finishing No. 7 in Offensive SP+ while ranking Top 10 nationally in success rate (49.1%), EPA per play (0.22), yards per play (6.95), and points per drive (3.15). The Ducks were devastatingly explosive, leading the nation with 10.3% of plays gaining 20+ yards and pairing that with a Top 25 marginal explosiveness rating, making every drive a quick-strike threat. Efficiency showed up on standard downs, where Oregon ranks third in standard-down success rate (55.7%), consistently staying ahead of the chains and avoiding negative plays at an elite rate. The passing game is especially lethal, producing 8.2 yards per dropback (11th) with a 72.8% completion rate, while still maintaining a strong rushing profile averaging 5.9 yards per carry (14th) and the No. 1 EPA per rush nationally. Overall, the Ducks combined efficiency, explosiveness, and balance into one of the most complete and difficult offenses to defend in college football.
Oregon Player to Watch on Offense: QB Dante Moore
Dante Moore delivered a true breakout season for Oregon, starting all 14 games while throwing for 3,280 yards, 28 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions on a 72.9% completion rate, pairing efficiency with downfield aggression. His advanced efficiency metrics back it up, posting 9.3 ANY/A, 8.2 yards per dropback, a 48.8% success rate, and a pristine 79.0 Total QBR, while keeping damage to a minimum with a 3.6% sack rate and a 14.9% sack-to-pressure rate. Moore’s passing profile shows legitimate vertical juice, as he earned an elite 98.8 PFF passing grade on throws 20+ yards, averaging 17.6 yards per attempt with 14 deep-ball touchdowns, while still maintaining accuracy and ball control. He wasn’t just a bomb-thrower either, ranking above average in the intermediate game and completing 82.2% of throws in the short area, giving Oregon a full-field passing attack. As a runner, Moore added functional value with 266 rushing yards and two touchdowns, converting 37.0% of his carries into first downs despite a higher rate of negative plays that reflects his willingness to extend plays rather than bail early. Overall, Moore combined efficiency, explosiveness, and poise, anchoring a Top 10 SP+ offense and giving Oregon a quarterback capable of winning both from structure and when the play breaks down.
The Oregon Ducks Defense
Oregon’s defense was the backbone of its championship push, finishing 3rd in Defensive SP+ while ranking Top 10 nationally in EPA per play allowed (-0.12), yards per play allowed (4.29), and points per drive allowed (1.35). The Ducks consistently strangled efficiency, holding opponents to a 36.0% success rate (13th) and forcing an eye-popping 42.7% three-and-out rate (2nd) that routinely flipped field position. Explosive plays were largely erased, with Oregon ranking 2nd in defensive marginal explosiveness and allowing just 4.1% of snaps to gain 20+ yards (5th). The pass defense was especially dominant, finishing 6th in yards per dropback allowed (4.7), 8th in EPA per dropback, and 4th in opponent completion rate, while pairing coverage with a Top 10 pressure rate. Overall, Oregon Ducks fielded a fast, disciplined, and relentlessly efficient defense that forced opponents to execute perfectly just to stay on schedule.
Oregon Player to Watch on Defense: Safety Dillon Thieneman
Dillon Thieneman emerged as Oregon’s most reliable backend defender in 2025, pairing steady coverage discipline with strong situational awareness over 13 games. The Purdue transfer finished with 61 total tackles and an excellent 89.7% tackle rate, pursuing sound angles and displaying consistency despite being targeted infrequently in coverage (just 5.5% of snaps). When quarterbacks did test him, Thieneman allowed only 9 completions on 19 targets for 107 yards, surrendered just one touchdown, and posted an outstanding 12.2 defensive QBR, reinforced by two interceptions and four pass breakups. His coverage profile stood out for ball disruption, forcing incompletions on 26.3% of targets while limiting explosive plays and holding opponents to just 0.31 yards per coverage snap. While not a primary run defender, he still contributed efficiently in support, recording eight total havoc plays and maintaining solid run-fit discipline from depth. Backed by a sensational 90.7 season-long PFF grade across coverage (91st%) and tackling (88.8 grade), Thieneman consistently played winning football on the back end, functioning as a stabilizing presence in Oregon’s defensive structure rather than a boom-or-bust safety.
Indiana Hoosiers
Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
2025 Record: 14-0
Offense Ranking: 3
Defense Ranking: 2
Strength of Schedule: 17
Indiana’s 14-0 run was the rare season where the résumé and the metrics shook hands, finishing No. 1 in SP+ with the third-ranked offense and #2 defense while still landing at 12.9 second-order wins (a slight -1.1 wins “luck” tag for a team that usually looked anything but lucky). Curt Cignetti’s group built early separation with repeated blowouts, then validated it with vital wins at Iowa (20-15) and at Oregon (30-20) before surviving Penn State (27-24) and edging Ohio State (13-10) when the margin for error finally narrowed. The offense was a weekly problem thanks to the nation’s top success rate (53.6%), No. 2 EPA/play (0.30), and 3.60 points per drive (No. 2), pairing efficiency with just enough explosive juice (8.9% of plays gaining 20+). DC Bryant Haines’ defense was the true closer, ranking No. 1 in points per drive allowed (0.86), No. 2 in EPA/play (-0.20), and No. 7 in sack rate, all while leading the country in havoc (24.9%) and tilting games with a gaudy +18 turnover margin. Put it together and you get a team that could win pretty or ugly, and the 38-3 demolition of Alabama served as the final “case closed” stamp on a season that played like a national-title profile.
The Indiana Hoosiers Offense
Indiana’s offense was the engine behind their perfect season, ranking Top 3 nationally by SP+ and pairing elite efficiency with relentless consistency on a snap-to-snap basis. The Hoosiers led the country in offensive success rate (53.6%) and down-set conversion rate (82.3%), while finishing second in EPA per play (0.30), illustrating how often they stayed on schedule and punished defensive mistakes. They averaged 7.02 yards per play and 3.60 points per drive, combining the sixth ranked rushing success rate with the nation’s No. 1 passing success rate to stress defenses horizontally and vertically. Indiana was devastating when it crossed the 40, ranking second in points per scoring opportunity and converting red-zone chances into touchdowns at a Top 15 clip. Even in close games, the offense remained composed, finishing No. 1 nationally on third downs (56.5%) and consistently delivering winning drives against elite competition.
Indiana Player to Watch on Offense: QB Fernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza put together a Heisman-winning campaign, completing 72.3% of his passes for 3,172 yards with a 36–6 TD-INT ratio while posting an elite 11.0 ANY/A and 89.5 Total QBR. He paired accuracy with aggression, averaging 13.2 yards per completion and generating a remarkable 58.4% passing success rate despite operating in a fairly vertical offense. From a grading standpoint, Mendoza earned a 91.1 overall offensive grade and a 90.3 passing grade, consistently limiting negative plays with just a 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate. He was especially lethal when kept clean, completing 77.1% of his throws for 9.5 yards per attempt with a 92.2 offensive grade, though his efficiency understandably dipped under pressure where his completion rate fell to 52.1%. Conceptually, Mendoza thrived outside of play action, producing 27 touchdowns and a 10.4 YPA on non-play-action throws while maintaining his elevated accuracy and decision-making. As a runner, he added real value, rushing for 359 yards and six scores with a 69.6% success rate and an impressive 51.8% first-down rate, underscoring his ability to stress defenses both structurally and when flushed.
The Indiana Hoosiers Defense
Indiana’s defense has been a bonafide CFP-caliber run, finishing second nationally in SP+ and playing with a week-to-week consistency that suffocated even the most fearsome offenses. The Hoosiers ranked Top 6 in defensive success rate allowed (33.5%) and second in EPA per play (-0.20), pairing gap-sound run fits with disciplined coverage that forced opponents to earn every yard. They were especially dominant in scoring territory, leading the nation by allowing just 0.86 points per drive and an absurd 26.1% red-zone touchdown rate, turning promising possessions into empty trips. Indiana’s havoc profile popped off the page, ranking No. 1 nationally with a 24.9% havoc rate and overwhelming quarterbacks through a balanced mix of pressure, negative plays, and tight windows. When games tightened late, the defense consistently closed the door, finishing Top 2 on third downs enroute to an undefeated regular season and Big Ten Championship.
Indiana Player to Watch on Defense: Safety/Slot CB Devan Boykin
Devan Boykin emerged as one of Indiana’s most versatile defenders, posting 43 total tackles with an elite 95.6% tackle rate across 14 games while consistently finishing plays in space. His 11 havoc plays, including 3.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, two interceptions, and five pass breakups, underscore a disruptive skill set that goes beyond simple coverage duties. In coverage, Boykin allowed just 9 completions on 22 targets (40.9%) for 101 yards, surrendering zero touchdowns and producing a sparkling 8.5 defensive QBR against him. He was particularly effective at limiting damage after the catch, holding receivers to only 4.6 yards per target and 0.38 yards per coverage snap. PFF grading backs up the production, as Boykin earned an overall defensive of 90.4 with strong marks in coverage (88.2) and run defense (93.4) despite being targeted in high-leverage slot situations. Taken together, the data paints Boykin as a high-efficiency, low-margin defender whose tackling reliability and coverage discipline made him a critical stabilizer in Indiana’s secondary.
Oregon and Indiana: Team Stats and Betting Trends
- Indiana is 9-5 ATS this season
- Oregon is 9-5 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 7 of the Hoosiers’ 14 games this season (7-7)
- The OVER has cashed in 7 of the Ducks’ 14 games this season (7-7)
- Dante Moore has thrown 4 INTs in his last 4 games
- Moore went 26-33 (78.8%) in the rout of Texas Tech with 7.1Y/A\
- Fernando Mendoza has thrown 1 INT in his last 5 games
- Omar Cooper Jr. has caught 3 passes in each of his last 3 games
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Elijah Sarratt OVER 3.5 Receptions (+100)
In the first meeting of these two programs, WR Elijah Sarratt was an integral part of Indiana’s victory, drawing 13 targets for 8 receptions, 121 receiving yards and a touchdown against a stout Oregon secondary. Sarratt got injured against Maryland on November 1st, which cost him 3 weeks before returning to run 14 part-time routes against a barely functioning Purdue team. He caught all four of his targets and led the team in pass routes in Indiana’s evisceration of Alabama last game and has scored a touchdown in every single full game he participated in this season. With a far more competitive game expected against a quality Oregon team that scored 20 points against the Hoosiers last time, I expect Sarratt to see 7+ targets and comfortably clear his very reasonable Over 3.5 Receptions (+100) line against the Ducks.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best Bets our model is projecting for the College Football Playoff semifinal between Oregon and Indiana
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Indiana Hoosiers on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play ATS on the Indiana Hoosiers -3.5.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying from a play on the Game Total of 46.5.
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