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We’re now into the third week of the college football season, and we’ve already seen a number of unexpected outcomes, with teams and individual players rising and falling through the ranks as some continue to knock the rust off and others garner attention that we didn’t think they’d gain.
Here’s a look into matchups across the country taking place on Saturday, specifically highlighting what to watch from a quarterback perspective as you place your bets ahead of gameday (all odds via PointsBet Sportsbook).
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Mississippi State (-3) at Memphis
The Bulldogs showed just how much they could get things clicking on offense when they forged the largest comeback in school history in Week 1, ultimately getting a 35-34 win over LA Tech after being down by 20 points in the fourth quarter. Mississippi State put on a much more steady performance in all three phases of the game in last week’s 24-10 victory over a very respectable NC State team. Sophomore signal-caller Will Rogers is among those players who have steadily improved in Starkville, and if the Bulldogs snag an early lead and keep building upon it, perhaps we’ll see the offense open up even more. He completed 33-of-49 passing attempts for 294 yards with two touchdowns, looking more settled and more controlled overall than he did in the first week.
But just as Rogers and the Bulldogs have started to get their feet under them offensively, the Memphis offense has also been humming as of late. Tigers freshman quarterback Seth Henigan has looked more experienced than he actually is, recording a solid performance in the team’s 55-50 win over Arkansas State, when he completed 22-of-33 passes for 417 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The Memphis rushing attack was also very much there as the Tigers combined for 263 yards and three rushing touchdowns last week. The primary killer for Memphis here will be its lack of pass rush, which is an unfortunate weakness to have against a pass-heavy scheme like the Air Raid, especially now that the players running in it at MSU appear to be getting more comfortable.
The Bulldogs head back to Starkville with a perfect record and cover the spread.
Nevada (-2) at Kansas State
This is going to be a test for Nevada, but it’s going to take a lot to stop the dynamic offense the Wolf Pack present. Carson Strong is considered the top quarterback prospect in the draft by several outlets and has several others that have him lower than that thinking about boosting him after recording two consecutive superior performances. The signal-caller’s level of mental processing, ball placement and pure accuracy (something that is paramount in Air Raid quarterbacks) make him a cut above the rest, and his team couldn’t have asked for much more from him when he completed 79.5% of his passes for 381 yards and four touchdowns in a 49-10 win over Idaho State.
Looking at the other sideline, Kansas State is suffering the loss of sixth-year senior quarterback Skylar Thompson, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. In his place, sophomore Will Howard is called upon to step up. His numbers and past performances as a whole aren’t exactly inspiring, as he completed 53.6% of his passes for 1,178 yards with eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year. The Wildcats offense started off 4-1 last year before hitting a five-game losing streak in which the unit averaged merely 18 points per game.
The Wildcats defense has been highly touted for a reason and they’ve got talent all over that will make for the biggest challenge Strong has seen this year, but the team collectively won’t be able to hold up to the end, especially with the loss of Thompson.
Nevada stays hot in this one and covers the spread as it moves to a perfect, 3-0 record.
Alabama (-14.5) at Florida
Are any of us really surprised that sophomore quarterback Bryce Young is in the early Heisman Trophy conversation? Alabama does a fine job year in and year out recruiting across the board, and this year has been no different as Young has completed nearly 71% of his passes this season for 571 yards with seven touchdowns. He should continue to level up as he goes up against a Florida defense that has a secondary that could be much more solid than it is and has had issues stopping teams on third down.
As for the Gators, looking at the quarterback aspect of this matchup, it’s hard not to think of the idea that if you feel the need to go back and forth between two quarterbacks during the season, you have zero quarterbacks in actuality. Quarterback battles that extend beyond camp typically indicate weakness at the position -- Mullen has said he’s sticking with Emory Jones as the starter despite the fact he’s recorded two consecutive games with two interceptions. Freshman Anthony Richardson has become an intriguing player to watch this season, who performed well against USF with two touchdown passes on three attempts, also rushing for an 80-yard touchdown. It looks like Mullen will continue to play two quarterbacks for now, but it might prove to be a good idea to hand Richardson the starting gig not long from now.
Florida is well-outmatched by Alabama in the one, and the Crimson Tide cover the spread.
Central Michigan at LSU (-19)
This LSU team looked good on paper ahead of the season, but has yet to resemble greatness in the two games the Tigers have played this year. LSU has had a great deal of talent at the quarterback position but it’s also had its fair share of problems. That starts with Myles Brennan‘s broken left arm that he sustained ahead of the season, leaving Max Johnson, who he was in competition with, to be declared the starter. Johnson has been impressive given the circumstances he’s been dealt -- he was thrown to the wolves last year as a true freshman and went 2-0 as a starter, with an upset victory over Florida and a solid home win over Ole Miss. In his most recent showing, a 34-7 win over McNeese, Johnson completed 18-of-27 passes for three touchdowns and stayed interception-free. The Tigers also allowed true freshman Garrett Nussmeier, who may have the highest ceiling in the quarterback room in Baton Rouge, to get his feet wet. Nussmeier didn’t see much time, completing 3-of-10 passing attempts for 19 yards. If the Tigers can pull ahead early and stack a lead, there’s a good chance we see Nussmeier come back out to gain more experience in this one.
The Chippewas are obviously a large underdog here, but we’ve seen some good things from former Washington quarterback Jacob Sirmon. He should enter this one confident after completing 12-of-16 passes for 110 yards with three touchdowns in last week’s 45-0 shutout of RMU. One thing to watch, though, will be just how much the LSU pass rush can affect Sirmon.
Sirmon and the Chippewas struggled against SEC competition in the season opener against Missouri when he completed 51% of his passes for one touchdown and two interceptions the 34-24 loss to Mizzou. LSU definitely has the advantage in this one talent-wise, but we’ve watched the Tigers experience some pretty big issues this season, upset by UCLA and not emerging as dominant as they could have against McNeese. LSU comes away with the win, but it won’t cover the spread.
Tulane at Ole Miss (-14)
Ole Miss has quickly become a team to keep an eye on this season -- with one of the primary reasons being that the Rebels have one of the best draft-eligible quarterbacks in the nation in junior passer Matt Corral. Through the first two games of the season, Corral has completed over 66% of his passes for 662 yards with six touchdowns. He’s done a great job pushing the ball downfield with this Ole Miss offense as 36% of the Rebels’ pass attempts have gone for 15 yards or more, according to Pro Football Focus.
This week, Ole Miss faces a Tulane team with upset potential -- the same one that gave the Oklahoma Sooners a run for their money in a 40-35 loss on the road. Freshman quarterback Michael Pratt completed 27-of-44 pass attempts for 296 yards with three touchdowns, staying interception-free. Pratt seems to have done a good job mastering a complex playbook, and both he and the rest of the Green Wave will look to give Ole Miss the same type of scare they gave Oklahoma in hopes of finishing the job the whole way through this time.
We’ve watched Tulane play a juggernaut close and then blow out its next opponent, so there’s a chance the Green Wave hang in the one. The Rebels have the edge, but Tulane has demanded respect early on in the season and brings a lot to the table -- experience, a defense with plenty adequate pass rush and the ability to stop opponents in third-down situations that leads the nation in punting, so they put themselves in a good place in the field position battle. I like Ole Miss winning but not covering the spread here.
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