The regular season is nearing a conclusion as the PGA Tour heads to TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open this week.
Birdies should be flying off the shelf this week, as is often the case in the summertime when the tour heads to the Midwest. Greens have to be heavily watered to protect against hot temperatures which results in soft greens. When you give a pro a soft landing zone, they will ask for their putter as many manageable birdie chances are in the forecast this week.
Looking at the betting board, I want to capitalize on comfort in the region so let’s see what stands out.
Tom Hoge over Greyson Sigg - Tournament Matchup (-115)
When looking for a Midwest specialist, I always try to find some regional roots.
Hoge checks that box as he grew up in Fargo and played plenty of amateur events in the region. He is a living legend for many back home in Fargo.
Neither golfer is having a particularly consistent campaign in 2023. Hoge has missed five cuts since April while Sigg has slammed his trunk early in six events over that stretch, seven if you count the Zurich Classic team event.
When we check overlapping events this season, Hoge has the edge 9-7-0, suggesting this line should be closer to -130 rather than the -115 we see.
That is before factoring in the local knowledge I briefly mentioned before. I think Hoge can poke his head back into contention at TPC Twin Cities so I will eat the -115 number here against Sigg.
Doug Ghim over Lee Hodges - Tournament Matchup (-110)
Sticking with the regional theme, Ghim has Midwest roots having grown up in the Chicago area.
That’s not the sole factor of these plays, but it is a “nice to have” when it comes to finding that comfort with the weather and turf conditions.
Looking at overlapping events this season, Ghim has edged out Hodges 10-7-0 in 17 tournaments played. That would suggest this line should be closer to -145 rather than the -110 line that is thrown out there by the sportsbooks.
Hodges impressed with a T-16 finish in his 2022 3M Open debut but Ghim has a pair of top 20s on his event resume, in three tries.
When you combine the 2023 edge and regional comfort, this looks like great value backing Ghim for the week.
