Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bet in the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets matchup, a strikeout prop on Mad Max Scherzer.
Max Scherzer O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Phillies
In four meetings last season versus Philly, Max Scherzer recorded seven, nine, seven and six strikeouts, going Over 6.5 Ks three times.
Scherzer is 8-3 to the Over 6.5 Ks in his past 11 versus the Phillies and this season, his strikeouts have been down, but over his last three starts, we’re seeing Mad Max come alive.
The 38-year-old totaled six, five and eight strikeouts (19 combined Ks) over 18.0 innings in his past three starts against the (@) Nationals, Guardians and (@) Rockies.
Scherzer had 20 strikeouts in his previous five starts and 22.2 innings, so he’s trending in the right direction.
Another positive is Scherzer went to Coors Field and struck out a season-high eight against the Rockies in the previous start. We all know how tough is it to strikeout batters there in that altitude, so I like Scherzer entering this home start.
Scherzer has only two home starts this season against the Guardians and Padres. He’s yet to allow a earned run (0.00 ERA) and struck out 11 over 11.0 innings with a .114 OBA and four hits and four walks at home.
The Phillies offer a high chase rate and historically high strikeout numbers against Scherzer. The current Phillies hitters own a collective 201 plate appearances versus Scherzer for a .191 BA and 37.3 K% to a 7 BB%. Scherzer has 75 strikeouts to 14 walks and 35 hits allowed over those 201 plate appearances.
I played Scherzer Over 6.5 Strikeouts at -106 odds and on FanDuel, they have a 30% boost up to $25 to make this +123 odds. I would go out to -125 on Scherzer to hit seven or more strikeouts.
During the regular-season, Scherzer allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10-straight home games and one or less in seven-straight. Scherzer’s Under 2.5 earned runs prop on DraftKings at -145 odds seems like good value for a sprinkle. That prop isn’t available at a lot of books, so I won’t make it an official, but I sprinkled it.
Pick: Max Scherzer Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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