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We’re locked and loaded for another great slate of baseball on Friday with games some tantalizing series getting underway and continuing on. I’ve got two plays I’ve picked out and I’ll share them now.
Los Angeles Angels (+115) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-136) Total: 8.5
It happens every year. A team starts off scorching hot against lefties before the sample size catches up to them, leaving them look average (or even below average) against southpaws.
This year, it’s the Baltimore Orioles. They began the season in the top five in wRC+ to left-handed pitching and are now down in 22nd place in that regard with a 94 wRC+. Their strikeout rate is a poor 25.1%, and it’s likely to get even worse on Friday night.
Yes, Reid Detmers has largely pitched to contact in his young big-league career, but he was rocking double-digit strikeouts per nine in the minors (and in college!) and has struck out 12 batters in his last two starts, spanning just 8 2/3 innings.
Detmers was solid earlier this year against the Orioles with five innings of two-run ball, and I believe in him here against a Baltimore team which is 18th in contact rate over the last two weeks.
With all of that said, the Angels are the worst team in the league in strikeout rate over the past two weeks and are sporting a 65 wRC+, so I will absolutely not be taking them on the moneyline. Instead, I will fade both offenses.
Edge: Under 8.5
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Colorado Rockies (+145) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-176) Total: 9
Yes, I took two unders yesterday — and cashed two unders. I’m going with two more unders here on Friday, because this total is about a run too high.
Zac Gallen hasn’t been killing it lately, but he’s facing a Rockies team which is tragically sporting a 4.4% barrel rate in the last two weeks and making oodles and oodles of harmless soft contact. Gallen’s been victimized by the gopher ball in recent starts with eight homers against him in his last eight outings, but I find it doubtful with the amount of good contact that the Rockies are making that he will run into the same issues that have plagued him in recent starts.
On the other side of things, the Diamondbacks are 18th in barrel rate over the same time and are also one of the best teams in baseball at making contact despite fleeting results. I think that plays right into Chad Kuhl‘s hands, who has given up a ton of hard-hit balls and will love facing a team struggling to barrel it up right now.
Both of these offenses have been pretty bad, and Kuhl has been surprisingly great this year. Mix that in with a solid bounce-back spot for the talented Gallen and you have an under.
Edge: Under 9
