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MLB Best Bets for June 8

Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

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We’re officially rolling through the week here with a full slate of games on hump day starting in the afternoon and ending late at night. I’ve picked out my two favorite plays here.

Philadelphia Phillies (-136) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+115) Total: 8

I am fully cognizant of the fact that the Phillies are guaranteed to lose at some point. On a five-game winning streak, it seems impossble — but it is law.

With that being said, it won’t be tonight. Not with Aaron Nola on the hill and not with the way the Phillies are hitting. They’re leading the league in barrel rate and have registered better than a 45% hard-hit rate since firing Joe Girardi on June 3. Their strikeout and walk numbers are downright elite. This is a very dangerous offense.

On the other side of this one, Adrian Houser has been bad. His ERA may sit in the mid-threes, but his expected ERA comes in a full run higher due to a bloated .389 xwOBA on contact and a 40.4% hard-hit rate. Nola’s peripherals, on the other hand, are elite — and his 30% strikeout rate will play up against a team which has struck out nearly 27% of the time in the past week.

I’ll take the bait here on the hotter offense and the more talented pitcher.

Edge: Phillies -125

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New York Mets (+115) vs. San Diego Padres (-136) Total: 7

Let me address the oddsmakers here for a second. Look, bro, it’s not gonna happen. This low-scoring series ripe for pitcher’s duels? It’s cancelled. We’re hitting the ball hard. We’re going deep. No pitcher is safe.

In all seriousness, I’m just not sure why a series between two staffs with questionable underlying numbers and between an elite offense and a talented one is so reasonably priced.

We’ve cleared two overs by ridiculous margins, and we’ll clear a third here. Chris Bassitt is Ksing Regression and Sean Manaea and his 40.7% hard-hit rate just don’t know what to do when faced with a contact-heavy team like the Mets.

New York has been one of the five best offenses in baseball in the last two weeks and could easily clear this by themselves with all the right-hander power they have. On the other hand, while the Padres have been cold on the whole, Bassitt’s 3.69 xERA will help out with that.

Edge: Over 7