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It’s Sunday, which means we’re gifted with a long, jam-packed day of baseball. I’ve picked out two bets I really like, and without further ado I’ll lay them out below.
San Diego Padres (+145) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-171) Total: 7.5
You may say square play, but I think this under should be in play once again as Blake Snell pays a visit to the Dodgers. The lefty owns a 1.96 ERA against L.A. in four starts this year, and has gone deep in almost every one. He’s struck out 29 of the 91 batters he’s faced.
Snell is also getting on a roll with 21 strikeouts in his last two outings, which span 14 innings, and we already know how awfully the Dodgers hit lefties with a wRC+ below 100.
Max Scherzer, meanwhile, will have the benefit of facing a team ranked 18th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and hitting just .239 as he vies for another Cy Young award. I think this is too good to pass up given the slump the Padres and Dodgers are both in, the form of the starters and the adversity L.A. faces against lefties.
Edge: Under 7.5
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Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) vs. Seattle Mariners (-186) Total: 8
This won’t be a popular one, but I actually think the Diamondbacks can take two out of three here against the Mariners and dash their playoff hopes in the process. Not only do the Mariners struggle against lefties, Tyler Gilbert has been excellent.
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Gilbert had a tough outing in a let-down spot after his famous no-hitter, but since then has leveled out to be a pretty decent pitcher. His last outing came against these same Mariners, where he allowed three runs over seven great innings. Seattle is in the bottom five of the league against lefties, so that should come as no surprise.
Conversely, matchups with lefties are just about the only split where the Diamondbacks look like a competent offense, and they get to face Yusei Kikuchi, whose ERA is approaching seven runs since the All-Star break. I think this is a tremendous value play.
Edge: Diamondbacks +155
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