Last week’s dark horses did not fare well on the .75-mile Richmond Raceway – but then again, we didn’t have a lot of hope for longshots on a rhythm track in the third consecutive short track race. This week, the dusky ponies should run freer on the aero-restricted superspeedway where luck plays an equal role in the outcome of races as skill.
Last year five drivers with numbers that would have landed them outside the top 15 in our Power Ranking formula scored top-10s at Talladega. They should be an object of interest again this week.
The odds for this week’s favorites are longer than normal. Denny Hamlin has held steady at +700 and is the bookmakers’ favorite. Joey Logano has changed from +900 to +1000 and back again, while Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott were +1000 Wednesday night.
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For that reason, bettors who hit on the right driver will have a fairly decent payday regardless of who wins, but there is no more of a guarantee that those top-four choices will experience an incident-free race than any other driver in the field. This week, place modest wagers throughout the field and hope for the best.
Topping the list of Talladega top-10 finishers ranked outside of the Power Rankings top 15 is Erik Jones. He is listed at +7000 at PointsBet Sportsbook for the outright win despite the fact that he scored top-fives in both ‘Dega duels of 2020. The argument will be that he is no longer in Joe Gibbs Racing equipment, but that won’t matter. Richard Petty Motorsports has decent equipment as well. Bubba Wallace gave that organization a couple of solid runs on the big track, including a second-place finish in his first Daytona 500.
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Ryan Preece (+6600 for the outright win) swept the top 15 at Talladega last year with a 15th in the spring and 10th in the fall. In Talladega 1 of 2019, he finished third. This February he scored a top-10 in the Daytona 500. JTG-Daugherty Racing is solid on the big tracks and Preece’s longshot status for the outright win drags his top-10 odds to +200. That is an acceptable risk.
Last year Chris Buescher (+6000) gave JTG-Daugherty a top-10 in Talladega 1, which was part of a three-race streak of strong results on this track type. Roush Fenway Racing still has some tall obstacles to overcome before they are considered weekly contenders, but no one has accused them of lacking power on the big tracks. Buescher’s top-10 odds this week are also +200.
Michael McDowell (+6600) won the Daytona 500 this spring with +5000 odds for the outright win. That victory makes him a much more attractive drafting partner at Talladega, which should help keep him in the lead pack. If he survives the carnage, he will play a factor in the win again this week. If he fails to get first, he can double your money at +200 for a top-10.
Corey LaJoie (+12500) was one of our dark horses earlier this year at Daytona based on three consecutive top-10s on aero-restricted superspeedways at the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020. Bracketing this streak were an 11th at Talladega 1 in 2019 and a 16th in that same race the following year. He struggled in his next two attempts, but rebounded to finish ninth in this year’s Daytona 500. He is listed at +350 for a top-10 and should definitely get a little action.
Last year’s Daytona 500 accident for Ryan Newman (+4000) derailed his plate efforts for a little bit. He finished 24th in Talladega 1 and was 36th in Daytona 2. He came back in the fall Talladega race to finish sixth and ran well in the 500 again this year before he was eliminated in another less dramatic crash. Newman can certainly get inside the top 10 again, which would be worth +175 odds.
Wallace (+3000) has had more success at Daytona than Talladega, but he is another driver to watch this week. The team is gradually improving and the spotlight will be on him as he drafts alongside car owner Hamlin and the rest of the JGR Toyota crew. The right flick of the wrist to keep him out of trouble could also provide him with a +160 top-10.
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