Prop Bets
As money begins to pour in prior to a NASCAR race, the outright odds to win shift. Often, however, the lines for top-threes and -10s move much less severely or don’t move at all. That means good options for Prop Bets remain intact from the start of the week until the green flag.
One of these strong options is Joey Logano (+320 for a top-3). His outright line moved 200 points as smart money came to the realizations that +1600 was a great bet. While podium finishes can be almost as unpredictable as wins, being ranked sixth on this chart opens up some options with slightly lower risk. You won’t get rich off a 3/1 bet, but there is money to be made.
Kyle Larson (+125/top-3) and Martin Truex Jr. (+165/top-3) also have positive odds to finish on the podium and given their recent performance on road courses, those are acceptable odds. If you are willing to put down a bet on Chase Elliott for the outright win at slightly less than 2/1, Larson and Truex should also be on your radar screen for the podium.
Kurt Busch (+650/top-3) is certainly a riskier proposition, but that is why you can get him at 13/2. He has not scored a top-three on a road course since he was second in the 2015 Sonoma Raceway event, but he’s comes close three times in the last five races with fourth-place finishes. One of these came in the most recent event at Road America.
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Positive top-10 odds can be found for drivers with outright lines of about 50/1 and higher. With a +125 for Tyler Reddick and Ross Chastain plus a +160 for Chase Briscoe, you have a little money that could be made here as well. Bet sparingly, but they may also be worth a few shekels at +1200 and +1400 for a top-three if you are digging deeply in your pockets.
Momentum can carry a driver a long way and Erik Jones (+700/top-10) has been perfect in regard to top-10s at the Glen. He is not in Joe Gibbs Racing equipment any longer, however, and that caused his outright odds to skyrocket – dragging his other lines along with it. Road courses are equalizers on which the size of a driver’s heart and right foot can make up the difference for a lack of horsepower among teams with less funding than the marquee organizations.
Likewise, Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon (+700/top-10) has the opportunity to sneak into the single digits with a little strategy and a lot of luck.
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In the Group matchups this week at PointsBet Sportsbook, there is an interesting choice in Group B. William Byron (+225) and Ku. Busch (+225) are equally matched over Ryan Blaney (+325) and Alex Bowman (+325). This comes down to a Pick ‘Em, but with slightly higher odds and a more recent road course win, Blaney deserves some attention.
Group C is a battle of age and treachery versus youth and enthusiasm with Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski both listed at +225 against Chastain and Reddick at +325. While we still think the Young Guns will run well, it should be pointed out that veterans were much stronger at Sonoma earlier this year on a course that has traditionally been one of NASCAR’s road course cornerstones. Watkins Glen has been on the calendar even longer.
If Michael McDowell (+225) can regain the footing on road courses that led him to an eighth-place finish on the Daytona International Speedway Road Course and a seventh at the Circuit of the Americas, he should easily outpace Daniel Suarez (+225), Chris Buescher (+325), and Aric Almirola (+325) in Group D.
If Logano runs as well as we expect, he should be a lock at +200 to be the top Ford driver. Likewise, Truex has plus odds of +150 to outpace his other Toyota pilots. Both of these drivers should challenge for a top-three and represent good values in the manufacturer battles.
In head-to-heads, Austin Dillon (+115) has plus odds against Cole Custer (-140). Since danger lurks around every corner on a road course, Dillon simply needs only to avoid trouble to take that matchup.
Elliott’s low odds drag Chevrolet to a -125 as the winning manufacturer and Hendrick Motorsports to -175 as the winning team. If they can pull off the upset, Toyota is +220 and Ford is listed at +400 this week.
Truex and Kyle Busch help Joe Gibbs Racing to +150 odds as the winning organization, but Logano and Team Penske are much more lucrative at +550.
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